Can this work? I'm gonna give it a go and chase draws with alot of teams. Gonna start off with only 2 teams today. So here's a stat for you guys, last year the lowest team that went to the NHL draw were the Devils and that was 10 and those goons got blown out last season and never fought for those extra points. Calgary were on top with 28 DRAWS! Any negative and positive thoughts are welcome, I'm really posting to keep track/note of this "system" and see how it goes. Gonna throw like .25 units on it to it won't be a huge hit to my bankroll.
Can this work? I'm gonna give it a go and chase draws with alot of teams. Gonna start off with only 2 teams today. So here's a stat for you guys, last year the lowest team that went to the NHL draw were the Devils and that was 10 and those goons got blown out last season and never fought for those extra points. Calgary were on top with 28 DRAWS! Any negative and positive thoughts are welcome, I'm really posting to keep track/note of this "system" and see how it goes. Gonna throw like .25 units on it to it won't be a huge hit to my bankroll.
I swear I hadn't read this beforehand but I just posted this in my thread for Weds.
"I'm considering placing some wagers on No Overtime for selected games. Yes it is risky placing bets at -300 to -350 chalk. But consider that only 42 of 196 games so far this season have gone to OT or SO. That's only 21.4%. Based on this figure, the No OT prop should really be more like -450 to -500 for most games. From the sportsbooks' perspective it makes sense to reduce the chalk because I guarantee that the vast majority of bets are coming in on the YES for OT side. This means that you would more or less break even if you lost 1 out of every 4 games you picked for No OT. I feel quite confident that by picking the correct matchups I could pick at least 4 out of 5 winners on this prop and make a profit. Its a high risk, small reward proposition, but if this was easy we'd all be rich by now. Any further thoughts on this idea? "
I've been intrigued in the past by the idea of chasing OT games but upon further inspection it seems to me like a negative EV bet.
Keep track of how you do chasing OT, I'll pick No OT games and we'll see who's doing better after a few weeks.
I realize your system is different than my experiment given that you're chasing certain teams. Still interested to see what happens.
Personally I won't be putting any money on my picks for now. I really don't recommend doubling-down or using any type of progression betting system. If you lose 5 in a row (which is a real possibility) your $4.50 bet will already be up to a $144 bet. 8 straight and you're $1152 in the hole.
I swear I hadn't read this beforehand but I just posted this in my thread for Weds.
"I'm considering placing some wagers on No Overtime for selected games. Yes it is risky placing bets at -300 to -350 chalk. But consider that only 42 of 196 games so far this season have gone to OT or SO. That's only 21.4%. Based on this figure, the No OT prop should really be more like -450 to -500 for most games. From the sportsbooks' perspective it makes sense to reduce the chalk because I guarantee that the vast majority of bets are coming in on the YES for OT side. This means that you would more or less break even if you lost 1 out of every 4 games you picked for No OT. I feel quite confident that by picking the correct matchups I could pick at least 4 out of 5 winners on this prop and make a profit. Its a high risk, small reward proposition, but if this was easy we'd all be rich by now. Any further thoughts on this idea? "
I've been intrigued in the past by the idea of chasing OT games but upon further inspection it seems to me like a negative EV bet.
Keep track of how you do chasing OT, I'll pick No OT games and we'll see who's doing better after a few weeks.
I realize your system is different than my experiment given that you're chasing certain teams. Still interested to see what happens.
Personally I won't be putting any money on my picks for now. I really don't recommend doubling-down or using any type of progression betting system. If you lose 5 in a row (which is a real possibility) your $4.50 bet will already be up to a $144 bet. 8 straight and you're $1152 in the hole.
So this is what I've come up with, I'm still doing some research on the record of a team with conservative games with no overtime played, so far I see the Devils with 18 in a row .. So let's look at Row Press bet 6 for example...
The bet would be 32, I've took the minimal odds for a draw which is +290 so if won the total wager won would be 92.8.. but I would have to subtract the previous row if accumulated loses which is 70. This would be a profit of $22.8.
So at the end of the day, if MIN/CALGARY/RANGERS/OTTAWA. don't go to OT for 20 straight games this won't work. I've chosen these 4 teams at random really. I'm gonna get hesistate at betting the last 4-5 where my balls would be sweating but I hope I don't have to go to that point. I can stretch the numbers a bit more still trying to figure out a formula for it, stretching it to 22026 games would be a plus. 25 Straight games without a shootout is about a .5% chance in my book. Any comments welcome hope to answers some of your questions colt, this what my vision, hope I explain it well
So this is what I've come up with, I'm still doing some research on the record of a team with conservative games with no overtime played, so far I see the Devils with 18 in a row .. So let's look at Row Press bet 6 for example...
The bet would be 32, I've took the minimal odds for a draw which is +290 so if won the total wager won would be 92.8.. but I would have to subtract the previous row if accumulated loses which is 70. This would be a profit of $22.8.
So at the end of the day, if MIN/CALGARY/RANGERS/OTTAWA. don't go to OT for 20 straight games this won't work. I've chosen these 4 teams at random really. I'm gonna get hesistate at betting the last 4-5 where my balls would be sweating but I hope I don't have to go to that point. I can stretch the numbers a bit more still trying to figure out a formula for it, stretching it to 22026 games would be a plus. 25 Straight games without a shootout is about a .5% chance in my book. Any comments welcome hope to answers some of your questions colt, this what my vision, hope I explain it well
I swear I hadn't read this beforehand but I just posted this in my thread for Weds.
"I'm considering placing some wagers on No Overtime for selected games. Yes it is risky placing bets at -300 to -350 chalk. But consider that only 42 of 196 games so far this season have gone to OT or SO. That's only 21.4%. Based on this figure, the No OT prop should really be more like -450 to -500 for most games. From the sportsbooks' perspective it makes sense to reduce the chalk because I guarantee that the vast majority of bets are coming in on the YES for OT side. This means that you would more or less break even if you lost 1 out of every 4 games you picked for No OT. I feel quite confident that by picking the correct matchups I could pick at least 4 out of 5 winners on this prop and make a profit. Its a high risk, small reward proposition, but if this was easy we'd all be rich by now. Any further thoughts on this idea? "
I've been intrigued in the past by the idea of chasing OT games but upon further inspection it seems to me like a negative EV bet.
Keep track of how you do chasing OT, I'll pick No OT games and we'll see who's doing better after a few weeks.
I realize your system is different than my experiment given that you're chasing certain teams. Still interested to see what happens.
Personally I won't be putting any money on my picks for now. I really don't recommend doubling-down or using any type of progression betting system. If you lose 5 in a row (which is a real possibility) your $4.50 bet will already be up to a $144 bet. 8 straight and you're $1152 in the hole.
Looking forward to tracking this. GL Roonie
How does 20 sound ... Any if anyone wants this table in email shoot me a PM. It's on google docs and would be easier to understand. Let's hope this works
I swear I hadn't read this beforehand but I just posted this in my thread for Weds.
"I'm considering placing some wagers on No Overtime for selected games. Yes it is risky placing bets at -300 to -350 chalk. But consider that only 42 of 196 games so far this season have gone to OT or SO. That's only 21.4%. Based on this figure, the No OT prop should really be more like -450 to -500 for most games. From the sportsbooks' perspective it makes sense to reduce the chalk because I guarantee that the vast majority of bets are coming in on the YES for OT side. This means that you would more or less break even if you lost 1 out of every 4 games you picked for No OT. I feel quite confident that by picking the correct matchups I could pick at least 4 out of 5 winners on this prop and make a profit. Its a high risk, small reward proposition, but if this was easy we'd all be rich by now. Any further thoughts on this idea? "
I've been intrigued in the past by the idea of chasing OT games but upon further inspection it seems to me like a negative EV bet.
Keep track of how you do chasing OT, I'll pick No OT games and we'll see who's doing better after a few weeks.
I realize your system is different than my experiment given that you're chasing certain teams. Still interested to see what happens.
Personally I won't be putting any money on my picks for now. I really don't recommend doubling-down or using any type of progression betting system. If you lose 5 in a row (which is a real possibility) your $4.50 bet will already be up to a $144 bet. 8 straight and you're $1152 in the hole.
Looking forward to tracking this. GL Roonie
How does 20 sound ... Any if anyone wants this table in email shoot me a PM. It's on google docs and would be easier to understand. Let's hope this works
I'm really intrigued by this too, Roonie - played this bet just for kicks a few times last year but never hit. One thing I have to add for you to maybe consider is that so far this year I have been playing underdogs showing reverse line movement and I have seriously lost close to half my bets because of overtime losses. Just giving you the heads up in case you wanted to look at those type of matchups and their seemingly high incidence of OT, for your new system!
I'm really intrigued by this too, Roonie - played this bet just for kicks a few times last year but never hit. One thing I have to add for you to maybe consider is that so far this year I have been playing underdogs showing reverse line movement and I have seriously lost close to half my bets because of overtime losses. Just giving you the heads up in case you wanted to look at those type of matchups and their seemingly high incidence of OT, for your new system!
Wouldn't it be better to just place the same amount on each game and play every game every night? Yeah you will need a big bank roll because your losses will add up but eventually you should pass up your losses and be in profit. There is a guy on another forum doing this except the way I mentioned and he it like +18 units so far I believe.
Wouldn't it be better to just place the same amount on each game and play every game every night? Yeah you will need a big bank roll because your losses will add up but eventually you should pass up your losses and be in profit. There is a guy on another forum doing this except the way I mentioned and he it like +18 units so far I believe.
Wouldn't it be better to just place the same amount on each game and play every game every night? Yeah you will need a big bank roll because your losses will add up but eventually you should pass up your losses and be in profit. There is a guy on another forum doing this except the way I mentioned and he it like +18 units so far I believe.
nope, at the end of the season you will be minus units, amount of bet is key
Wouldn't it be better to just place the same amount on each game and play every game every night? Yeah you will need a big bank roll because your losses will add up but eventually you should pass up your losses and be in profit. There is a guy on another forum doing this except the way I mentioned and he it like +18 units so far I believe.
nope, at the end of the season you will be minus units, amount of bet is key
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