Betting and the NHL

Guys,

     I need some help here.  Are there any of you that just kill it in other sports, and just can't seem to even come close to breaking even in another?  My bread and butter is the NFL, and apparently the NHL just kills me.

     I put in the same time, effort, and unbiased research into both, but this damn sport doesn't want to reciprocate the love.  Even when the picks are "solid" based on the numbers, it goes nowhere. 

     For example, yesterday I had:

CHI ML
Dal/Nash (under 5.5) - for some reason my book had it at 5.5.

    Out of the the two, I had CHI being the more questionable one, but at +105, I couldn't not take it.  The under was supposed to be the money maker.  Of course, 1-1 until the 3rd, then 4-2 final score.

     The reason I bring this up is because I see a bunch of people on a regular basis here that have opposite picks of mine and do well.  What I don't get is how do you come up with those picks when everything goes against them. 

     Maybe I just don't get this sport.  Can anyone give me some threads or people who post on here that are reputable?  I would just like to tail them...I think I'm going to throw in the towel... 

There are alot of posters on here who selflessly share their choices and their records.  You can find a number of them on any day.

Hockey is unique because it isn't just about raw talent.  it's about matchups and intangibles.  When I bet on basketball I know the starters will be getting alot of time on the court, its more predictable. You cannot check a player on the court, hockey is different, certain players can do more to nullify an all star forward.  If you were earning a living solely on betting hockey it would literally be a full time job.

In hockey you have "character players".  A team may run 4 lines, one line might be used to shut down anothers tops line, the star offensive player might only get 20 minutes out of the 60 in the ice.  Some players earn their keep by playing purely physical hockey, digging out pucks out of the corners and along the boards.  These players don't have multi-million dollar contracts, but they help out their star players immensely.  I think of it in NFL terms, a strong offensive line may not be the reason fans come to see the game, but they allow their star quarterback to shine.  Most people cannot name these players, but they play a bigger role than the average bench player in the NBA.

Then there is powerplay and shorthanded percentages, goalie matchups, home and away (home get last line change which is huge if specific matchups are important), coaching style, transition game mobility of the defense.  I could go on and on, but you get the picture. 

If I can offer my humble opinion.  In the Chicago game you were getting a good price so you went with it, to me, the loss of Kane while playing on the road against a strong home team would dissuade me from betting on that particular game.  I personally pick my spots, I don't throw a lot of darts but I try and throw them accurately.

My two picks last night were Pens/Thrashers over and Leafs/Hurricanes over.  In the first choice I know that Crosby is on his streak and he will be working very hard to continue it, and his teamates will help him.  This may sound like a fluffy reason, but I know that both teams like to play a more run and gun style, so the added fact that Crosby has his 25 game point streak or whatever it is up to right now, made this an easy choice for me.

In the Leafs game, well I am from Toronto and I watch them all the time.  The Leafs have a pourous defense and the Canes are not much better on D. The matchup "seemed" right for an over bet; neither team would be too dominant and special teams would be a factor.  I like those types of matchups for an over  A big first period secured that one.

Don't give up hope.  Follow the sports and make some predictions without putting any money down until you feel right.

bol   

Step one...Everyday...

Wednesday hockey thread, stats, picks, news and info

there are no solid handicapping angles in hockey. there are suggestions how to approach handicapping hockey but nothing solid. over the long haul i found goal tending with a high save percentage above 92 pct wins alot of games but most likely youll be laying juice to offset

Everyone,

     You guys are the best.  Thanks so much for the responses.  They are all really appreciated.

     Guess I'll just take a step back and hold on with the actual placing of bets until I can consistently pick some winners. 

johnnyfry: You're post helped out a ton.  Thanks a million. 
phat03: I will continue to make sure that link is the first thing I look at every morning.

Thanks again everyone,
Sam

I still say hockey is the hardest sport to handicap. The only way I do well is if I have two hockey picks with one or two NBA picks. Too unpredictable case inpoint the NYI beating the Penguins and ending Crosby's streak and the Coyotes scoring six goals last night.

Hey no problem, we all learn from each other on here, glad I could be of some assistance.  Cheers. 

Try and stick with 1 team for a while an learn their tendencies, then branch off to other teams once you get a good handle. I went on a 8 game win streak doing this(Penguins).

Points taken.  Thanks guys.  Let's see what I can come up with.

Cheers

Don't look too deep at Stats or Trends..... Its all about momentum. You have to analyze the mind of the team and/or players. And you need to sort teams out of your "betting range" for example Chicago.

The NHL Season is long and we have teams with ups and downs, teams with constantly good efforts and teams with unstable efforts like Chicago. Teams with good offense but x2 poor defense. You need to pick or ride the right Team(s) at the right time. For example Pens with their streak and Washington after their great effort in 3rd Period against Boston.

Todays Card is difficult to cap. But for example look at the Boston/Atlanta Game. Boston is in the middle of their 5 Game Roadtrip. Atlanta at home, desperate for a win, with a good effort against the Pens. I will play 1st Period Atlanta ML because they are able to score more frequently than Boston.

11-1 in the third and 4-2 final hey guy !!!

it is no luck ! this will happens only 5% of the time ... look at the stats after the 2nd end, and with 2 goals youy have the under final with a great percentage in my view.

If I could give any advice not that anyone cares about my two cents... Any team can beat another on any given night so pick your spots carefully. Huge favorites (2 to 1 or more) are as safe as the odds tell you. To me a +300 or +250 underdog means that every 2.5 or 3 games that a team is set at those odds, one of those teams is going to win. Maybe not everyone agrees with that logic, but I'd say about 3 or 4 games caps or penguins are favored between -200 and -250, I'd say they lose about 1.  Look at the standings. It's nit tight around the league. First place teams are only ahead by a point or two or even tied with one or two teams in their division. Now look at the records. Distinguish between winning teams and losing teams. Unfortunately, as much as we would like to see edmonton and toronto win, they are not winning teams and haven't been in the past couple years. They are both in last place and yea they go on 2 or 3 game winning streaks but they lose a hell of alot more. There's 80+ games in the season caps were on a 8 game losing streak and I picked it up after two or 3 and stopped betting. Any good team can go on a losing streak and any bad team can go on a winning streak.  Now the Caps have won their last 3 of 4 and I expect them to continue. They are my prediciton for the stanley cup but that's because I've been a fan my whole life and we've only made it once back in 98 and lost 4 straight to the redwings and I think our time is coming. I thought it was last year, but halak, (montreal's goalie traded to st louis) was nearly impossible to beat and we lost in game 7 because of a penalty by our defenseman mike green that put montreal on the power play for the win. Enough about it though I know I am rambling on. My point is, Don't bet on teams that suck and haven't proved themselves. Toronto and Edmonton SUCK! Until I see their asses in first I'm always going to say they SUCK! Reputable teams like the sharks, kings, blackhawks, flyers, caps, penguins are teams you should bet on. I don't know alot about the canadien teams but ottawa and montreal are good. If you see good value and that's what you like then go for the puck-line or go for the underdog. Blackhawks are -150 at home vs the sharks tonight at +130. Sharks have good value but I like the blackhawks at home. Being at home is a big deal the crowd is the seventh man it's like an extra spirit that gives an advantage to the home team. But like I said, any team can win on any given night. blackhawks are facing injuries but that doesn't stop the bookmakers from favoring them. Yea they have injuries but are still all around a great team. Good luck in your strategies.

Gentlemen;

As a long time lurker on Covers since 2008, I only decided to join earlier this month. I pick and choose when I will post, but I do want to say that this is by far one the best threads I have read.

I recoginize a number of you here, but what impressed me the most was the willingness of you all  to  answer a posted question in such detail.

All the best for the New Year to you all, and GL on your Bets!

 

 

I agree Falcon.  Without a doubt this is a great place to learn and the people are willing to give their advice and experiences with honesty.  Not an ounce of ego by the regs on here, this is why I advise others to always check out this place before they make their picks. 

If I can just extrapolate some posters comments as I really wanted to suggest more when I posted but I don't want to sound as if I am preaching.  I am far from the most knowledgeable of hockey bettors, but I have done my time both as a fan and a bettor.  I read alot of posts and lurk, and I have learned alot from others on here, I have personally been betting a long time and I am constantly learning and thinking of new ideas; for instance, Weebles 1st period betting strategy has had me thinking about the manner in which I bet as I never really made the period by period wager in the past, but I have been thinking about this as a viable strategy I can employ.

Bluesplayer's advice is solid for a newer NHL bettor.  Nothing beats information that you glean first hand.  If you can objectively analyze a team based on your own experience watching them play game in and game out you will get a good handle on not only that team, but the game in general and also other teams as well.  As a personal example, I won a huge pool in 1994 when I predicted that the Rangers would beat the Canucks in 7 games of the stanley cup finals before the start of the playoffs.  The reason I chose the Canucks?  During a regular season game in which they beat the Leafs 4-1, I was surprised and impressed with their defense and transition game, Pavel Bure did the rest that playoff run... 

Peanut Joes advice hit the nail on the head with one way to conceptualize the betting strategy about momentum and psychological factors of betting.  It's important for all sports, but moreso with sports that are intense and physically punishing like hockey in which they play each other sometimes 8 times a year.  There is alot of history and desire to beat particular teams based on things they did to a team in the past, including cheap shots and dirty hits.

Tomherst, I also look at the odds in such a manner.  This is why when I am paying the juice or getting the odds, I personally try and nail down "are the factors right for this being that 1 game in 3 that the underdog will win"?  So I look for injuries, trends, intangibles.  I am by no perfect of course, but if I can hit 60% in any given year with my picks I am content.

Good advice guys, sometimes reading these threads helps reinforce some ideas I overlook when making my choices.  Thanks for the information! 

Thanks johnnyfryAll the best!