Another good day yesterday. Easy to do when 9 out of 10 games go O5.5. TrackerA suggested plays move to 22-8 for January. Best start to a month with this new model all season.
Today it has:
SJS/LAK O5.5
CAL/MON O5.5
OTT/UTM O5.5
DAL/WAS O5.5
Of these games SJS/LAK shows strong historical data for O5.5 with 5 of the L5 meetings go O5.5 and both teams with 5 of their L5 games going over the 5.5 total. This game is ranked as the #2 game on TrackerA. Currently at the O6 -120. I will play the O6 and take a shot with O5.5. Only 2 of L5 meetings have gone O1.5 1P so we should get a good shot at decent O5.5 value in the first period. Maybe even a shot at O4.5 as a live play. TrackerB has this game as a 52% probability to go O5.5. SJS is on the B2B and have their dads on the trip for tonights game as well. I like the possibility of a high scoring game knowing that both teams are capable of netting the puck. SJS has not had a good Over record in B2B games but only one other time this season has SJS had to go OTR for the second leg of a B2B after playing at home for the first leg and that game turned out to be an O5.5 OTR. I know the travel from SJS to LA is not far but its not home ice. LAK playing well at home but giving up goals. Lets go for an O5.5 tonight in LA.
DAL/WAS shows up stronger on TrackerB at a 59% probability to go O5.5 and is the #1 rated game on TrackerA. Historically they have only gone O5.5 2 of L5 meetings but both teams playing in high scoring games with each of them having gone O5.5 in 4 of the L5 games. Sometimes these powerhouse teams can be a snooze fest because no one wants to let the other team pop off (see FLA/TOR last night or FLA/COL from this past weekend). This is one I would wait to see how its playing live and likely take a shot on an O5.5 live play if I had -125 or better odds and you've got 5+ shots from each team in the first 5 minutes with no goals. If the shots aren't coming quickly the line could drop in our favor to a O4.5 value play. Only 2 of the L5 meetings between these teams have gone O1.5 1P and O5.5 for the game total. However, both teams have 4 of their L5 games O5.5. DAL AVG 3 GPG OTR and WAS AVG 3 GPG @H. So, the possibility for scoring there in this game. Twice this season when DAL was on the B2B they played OTR and first leg went O5.5. The second leg of one went under and the other went over. DAL has only lost the second leg of a B2B 1 of 6. Tonight is their 7th B2B this season to track data across. I suspect this game to be high scoring.
Kind of an even bag for the other two games I mentioned being flagged as O5.5 on TrackerA.
CAL/MON 61% probability to go O5.5 on TrackerA.
OTT/UTM 62% probability to go O5.5 on TrackerA.
A slight spread on TrackerB.
CAL/MON 67% probability to go O5.5 on TrackerB. Seems solid?
OTT/UTM 60% probability to go O5.5 on TrackerB.
The issue for me with both of these games is the historical data is not strong.
CAL/MON 1 of L5 meetings O5.5 and 0 O1.5 1P in L5. To me that says you are bound to get better value as a live play. Currently this game is at O6 -115 on BET365. Both teams have gone O5.5 in 3 of their L5 games but play each other tightly in meetings. Must be a Canadian thing. CAL AVG 2.33 (2) GPG OTR, MON AVG 3 GPG @H. This one could get there but not sure I am chancing it given the history between these two teams.
OTT/UM 1 of L5 meetings and 2 O1.5 1P in L5. OTT AVG 3 GPG OTR, UTM AVG 3 GPG @H. OTT 4 of L5 O5.5, UTM 2 of L5 O5.5.
Cheers and BOL everyone.
Awesome stuff 85, i’m pretty sure I’m gonna be joining you in some of these, best of luck for us and the forum!!!
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