Posted YTD: 4-4 +52
Minnesota ML +113 Risk $100 to win $113
St. Louis at Minnesota
These two teams met two weeks ago tonight with Minny winning 2-1. That was the last game for coach Davis Payne. Harding and Halak were the goalies in that game and they will both start tonight. My wager is based on these two goalies. More on that later.
We all know that the Blues have looked great under new coach Ken Hitchcock going 4-1 for 9 points, but all of those games were at home. They'll have to prove to me that they can do it on the road vs a stingy home team in Minnesota. The line in this game has essentially flipped and I'm not sure why.
* St. Louis is 3-6 on the road including 3 losses in a row
* Minnesota is 6-3 at home including 4 wins in a row
Ironically Jaroslav Halak started to turn his game around in that defeat two weeks ago. However, the Blues have been horrible on the road (0-5) when Halak starts:
* Halak is 0-5 with a 3.71 GAA and a lousy .860 save% on the road this year
* Halak is 0-4 in his career vs the Wild with a 3.05 GAA and a .891 save%
* Halak has not won two games in a row this year overall
* St. Louis has scored only 7 goals in the five road games with Halak starting
On the other side of this matchup:
* Josh Harding is 5-2 in his career vs St. Louis with a 1.68 GAA and a .942 save%
* Josh Harding is 3-1 this year at home with a 1.23 GAA and a .962 save%
3 is the magic number in this matchup:
St. Louis is 9-0 when they score at least 3 goals in a game
St. Louis is 1-8 when scoring fewer than 3 goals in a game
Minnesota is 6-0 when allowing fewer than 3 goals at home
Minnesota is 0-3 when allowing 3 goals or more in a game at home
Each team is minus a forward and a d-man that played in the game two weeks ago. Stewart and Colaiacovo for St. Louis. Latendresse and Zidlicky for Minnesota. I have some concern with this bet on the Wild because of their injuries on the back end, but they will get plenty of help from their forwards that back check like crazy.
Since the Blues have yet to produce offensively on the road this year with Halak in net and have scored 3 or more goals in only three of their 9 road games overall, I'll take my chance with the very strong defensive minded Wild at home for plus money.
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