You all are funny.

I LIKE YOUR PICKS

Im telling you, Vegas aint doing anything shady.  They really think its a good line and expect plenty of Patriots money.  And so do I.  I mean common I see a lot of talk about the Giants around here.  But go ask the average joe down the street who he likes.  Because this is the one game he bets and Vegas has to adjust for that.  Everybody on this forum bets religiously and have better knowledge than the "public" granted the majority of us are in the "public" category.  But I think for this game those categories get rearranged and we are slided into the "sharp" category to make room for all the "public PUBLIC" betters for this game.

I agree stronger and stronger as the days go on.

Ice4Blood I also agree strongly!  It amazes me the reasoning behind some peoples plays.  To be honest I dont think you can make a bad play at -110 odds.  Vegas makes it so its almost a 50-50 shot.  But it comes to solid reasoning and money managent to be succesful long term.  Making picks without sound reasoning leads you to false results that always end in failure in the long run.  Love the picks!  Good Luck!

MoneySRH

I just dont read into that kind of stuff too much.  Especially on SuperBowl.  I like having it support my picks.  But would never make a play based on it.  I just started doing this shit last year but I have watched football my entire life at least since I can remember.  And I have tried many things over the last two years.  I come here and have listened to many peoples opinions.  I have tried to understand what is important and what is not.  I have tried angles, trends, systems.  I have tried making a living off teasers.  I guess my point would be as I have had short success with everything and short term losing off everything.  So after 2 full years of straight focus.  My girlfriend thinks I have serious issues because I have lived football during football season.  I dont do facebook, this is my facebook.  I dont need friends I need people to talk football with.  Ok enough rambling, where my head at  now is this.

I have had longer results of success (i am not ignorant and understand that 2 years is not long nor is the few months that I have actually been profitable for more than a few days/weeks) by just watching football and making plays off this.  Too me its just that simple.  Nothing is 100% but I found myself saying to myself ok the Saints are going to destroy detroit on Sunday night.  But I wanna root for my team so I will just play the over.  Or I love atlanta in indy laying the 7.5....WTF WOW its 6.5 now, Vegas must know something I am on Indy!!!  So many times I found my knowledge of simply watching football has been the single most important factor.  When I start looking into the other bullshit or betting for different reasons I lose. 

Once again not saying I am right.  I am saying what works for me. 

Also I do believe its extremely important to understand how Vegas works and the reasoning behind line movements.  Some line movements are false and some are valid.  Keeping an open mind and always adjusted to the situation is key!  There is no 1 strategy or system that will apply to any game and Vegas is always always adjusting.  Oh and you find the most VALUE by betting against the public because the NFL draws the most public money of any sport and they must adjust there lines do the public draw.  It has nothing to do with "sharp" "square" "public" whatever.  Sharp picks are opposite of public because they take the VALUE on lines.  It has nothing to do with a amount of money bet.  Its all about finding the value in lines but you must understand how Vegas operates first.  And I strongly DO NOT believe they would take a side in the superbowl.

Common brother, we have 11 days to go.  Are they really cheering against the Giants already?  If its still 70% giants money the minute after kick off.  I will agree Vegas is rooting for the Patriots.  But as of right now, I am not buying it.

Im telling you, Vegas aint doing anything shady.  They really think its a good line and expect plenty of Patriots money.  And so do I.  I mean common I see a lot of talk about the Giants around here.  But go ask the average joe down the street who he likes.  Because this is the one game he bets and Vegas has to adjust for that.  Everybody on this forum bets religiously and have better knowledge than the "public" granted the majority of us are in the "public" category.  But I think for this game those categories get rearranged and we are slided into the "sharp" category to make room for all the "public PUBLIC" betters for this game.

you come into my thread and say nice reason for the pick!!!! Meanwhile most of the people on this site are mushes and are the public. That's why so many people come into threads bashing people for their picks instead of campping themselves.

you came in my thread and I quote

Once agian, the dumbest reasoning behind a  pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think I put together some valid points about the Pats/Gmen last meeting so I came into your thread to se if I missed something. I didn't get anything other than

Fade the public . Most of people on the forum are degens and are the public. That's why they bitch and complain when they follow blindly and lose. I think I stated some valid points for why I believe the Pats will win and I love the fact everyone on here is talking Gmen and ML.

I am highly confused. 

Your saying I am saying to fade the Public?  I would never ever recommend such a thing.  In fact I think what I am trying to say is the Public are the ones who dont understand much about whats happening on the field and only knows what sportscenter and whoever tells them.  But I havent labeled anyone here public as an indiviual.  In fact I would think most would be in the sharp category.  I am just saying being a sharp means looking for value off point spreads by basing what you see on the field and what the actual line is and comparing the two.   Be able to do this alone would in my opinion classify you as "sharp" if we only have the 2 options.  I am also just saying its not the amount of money you bet to be a sharp.

As for your reasoning, I thought it was ridiculus.  I mean your reasoning was based on 1 game.  Like common.  So many people make plays off last week and its not like that.  I just didnt agree at all with your reasons.  But I aint mad at ya.  In fact I may act like a dick sometimes but I enjoys everyones opinions.  I am just very opinionated let people know what I am thinking.  But whats the harm?  Worst thing that happens is you just think about what your picking a little more.

To me the public is the guys at work, my dad, my brothers, most of my buddies.  People who watch but dont really watch.  They make plays off boxscores and standings alone.  They watch the highlights every monday and catch a few plays of the local game.  Or they play fantasy football and think they got it figured out.   Most people here do not fall into this category.  I dont care what your name is or who you are.  If your doing research, watching games, and actually making plays because you see value in a play or on the number then you are in the other category which is "sharp" i guess.  For instance the "public" loves the Patriots, Steelers teams like that and they bet on these teams during the regular season regardless of the "number".  That would be public.  The sharp knows this and waits for a team they think matches up well against these good teams because he knows he has a extra 2-3 pts on the game of hidden "value".  Its all about being able to determine where the number is suppose to be.  Regardless of all the bullshit many people talk, when you see "value" you jump.  Nothing is 100% but playing the odds is what increases our odds of making it.

Hmmmm, looking at your 5 black stars I think I would be fading myself quite a bit. don't you?AAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA

No, I believe I was quoted as "Einstein" from a fellow poster AAAAAAAHAHAHAHA

Unfortunately, analyzing games is basically a big waste of time nowadays.  Vegas is so damn sharp with their lines that it seems one play or two dictates who covers.  I wish I did not give a damn about line movement, but without it, I have NO chance of any long-term gambling success.