X'S SEASON LONG NFL THREAD

SAN DIEGO –2 over New England

Well, if there’s one thing we learned last week is that good teams don’t play bad for three or four weeks in a row (see New Orleans) and bad teams don’t play good for weeks on end (see Jacksonville). Enter the San Diego Chargers, a very good team that is coming off losses to Oakland and St. Louis and that now sit at 2-4. Isn’t that the way the Chargers start every year? In any case this is a very talented and dangerous host. They’re loaded offensively and if not for some shoddy play by its special teams they’d be at least 4-2. Furthermore, the Bolts have played just two home games thus far and have won by scores of 41-10 and 38-13. Granted, this isn’t the Cardinals or Jags they’re facing but the fact is the Chargers are way undervalued right now while the Patriots are overvalued after a blowout win over Miami on Monday followed by a nice win over the Ravens last week. That’s two big wins in a row and last week was a real head banger from start to finish. That takes its toll and they’re also being asked to travel across the country to play against perhaps the hungriest team, not to mention one of the most talented in the NFL. A series of mishaps and special team gaffs have put the Bolts in their current hole but they remain tops in both offensive yards and defensive yards allowed. Conversely, only Houston and Washington have allowed more yards than the Pats. Public perception dictates this appealing short price. Play: San Diego –2 

CAROLINA +1.30 over San Francisco

Let’s not beat around the bush here. We’re not going to try and convince anyone that the Pink Panthers are a good football team. They’re not. That’s like trying to convince you that poo doesn’t stink. It does. Fact is, the Panthers might be the worst team in the NFL and if they’re not we have yet to see a team that is worse. Think about it for a moment. If San Fran was a -3½ point choice would it deter you from betting them. Maybe so but it wouldn’t sway you into betting the Panthers taking back 3½. The goal of the odds makers is to “balance the books”, or attract the same amount on both sides in order to collect the vigor but this one will attract nothing but San Fran money and it’s for that reason alone that the play here is the putrid Panthers. It’s a tough sell but one that is very likely to cash. The line says so. Play: Carolina +1.30 (Risking 2 units).