Writeup on GB/ATL

Alrighty, so for those of you who ripped on me about a week ago with my writeup on how lsu would take care of texas am quite easily it looks like i was correct with that. so here are my thoughts and writeup on this game.

The line ATL -2.5

GB won last week in phili and soo many ppl backed them and are all happy about the big win. I've been hearing GB is the team to beat in the NFC they are so dangerous, Aaron Rodgers this , Aaron Rodgers that.

Lets break down the Green Bay team a little over the past month. We all no about the concussion and how rodgers came back in time, and saved the season and they manhandle the giants at home. But if we look closely the giants defence was not good at all this year for the most part. Then they had to squeak and i mean squeak by chicago in the last week of the season to just get in. They only put up 10 points.

Now lets break down the gb/phi game. GB won 21-16. Phili midway through the first quarter missed a 41 yard fg that could of made it 3-0. GB first td, to make it 7-0 happened at the end of the 1st quarter after the eagles on the phili 44 had them punting on a 4th and 4 but went offsides to keep the drive going. Really lucky for the offsides to get the drive going. GB 2nd td to make it 14-0 they fumbled twice on the drive but were lucky to recover both fumbles and the one fumble by jon kuhn went past the first down mark or they would of been stopped short. GB 3rd td was fair game, and well driven, they picked up a few 3rd down conversions and give them credit. Now the game is 21-10 in the 4th , akers misses yet another fg this time for 31 yards away, score could be 21-16 but stays 21-10. Phili then drives easily down the field gets a td, they go for 2 pts and convert but a flag brings it back, and they dont convert a 2nd time. So really it could of been 21-18 or even 24-21 phili. Yet the score is 21-16. We all no how close vick and the eagles were to getting another td before getting picked off in the end zone. Phili should of only needed a minimum of a fg on that drive to win the game.

Give the packers credit they did what they needed to do to win, but dont look at the final score and think that they dominated phili. they were lucky to win that game. yes rodgers was good throwing for 3 tds, but phili`s redzone defence was the worst in the league and eli fucking manning can throw 5 tds vs philis defence.

Now they have to go to Atlanta where Matt Ryan is like 19-2 as a starter at home. Phili never had a run game, atlanta has one of the best in the league which will help protect matt ryan cause if gb blitzes to much turner will run all day. Atlanta has a good fg kicker and home field advantage. Im not saying this game isnt going to be great or close, but atlanta will win this game. GB is still a year or 2 from being `great` and they proved that to me over the last few weeks although aaron rodgers has been good. Its a team that wins superbowls not a qb.

thoughts are welcome.

My play Atlanta Falcons -2.5

lol at your analysis.........sorry dude.......you may win the bet but not for the reasons you stated..........green bay being a year or two away from being great? but atlanta IS great now?

evenly matched teams.......a fg either way.......

I gotta take the points in this game. Going to buy it to +3. Falcons have had a lot of close wins on this home streak they are on.  And I think packers win it.

James Jones dropped a sure TD pass with about a minute left in the first half.    Ball was right in his hands right in stride and he was only 10-15 yards away from the goal line.      It would have been 21-3 at half time.   The Eagles got lucky on that one.

Packers put up 418 yards on Atlanta the first time these teams played.

GL with your play 

Ok let me correct myself, the eagles can run the ball, but dont do it like other teams. They are a pass first team, andy ried doesnt like to run the ball, its why the eagles are always in the playoffs and never go anywhere. I`m an eagles fan i know how my team plays the game. Atlanta doesnt lose at home, they just dont. I know that everyone on here is mainly a packers fan, alot of my friends are cheering for the pack, fuck i have nothing against the packers, just telling you how i see the game going.

I personally like aaron rodgers, but gb doesnt have a run game either. yes ok they ran for like 123 vs phili with starks, but again phili always chokes in the playoffs and give up yards on the ground.

Atl will control the time of possession and as long as michael turnover holds onto the ball atlanta will win this game, and whether they win by 3 or 33 its a cover,

Anybody who watched that first game knows the Packers won that game.   The 418 yards proves they can move the ball at will on that team and only 26 of it was rushing yards by running backs.    James Starks might at least offer much more of a threat of running this time that Atlanta is going to have to pay attention to.  

And I don't know who those top 7 teams in yards gained are but maybe they don't have one of the best defenses in football like the Packers do.     

yes the defending superbowl and division rival saints won in atlana a few monday nights ago, matt ryans 2nd loss as a starter in his 3 year career at home,

this packers fan is great, getting all upset cause his packers or her packers are going to be sent packing back to the frozen tundra

Nobody is upset.      Yes I am a Packer fan.   But not a homer.  Anybody who knows me on this site,  knows I'm not a homer.   

If you think the Packers can't win this game you are kidding yourself.   

When you have one of the best defenses in football, and one of the best QB's in football,  and you rolled up 418 yards on the team you are facing this week,   it's a pretty good sign you have a chance to win this game.     Go ahead and dispute anything I said.   

Don't get me wrong though,   Atlanta's got a good team,  they won 13 games.    

barrieboys

good writeup, but im seeing the outcome of the pack/philly game a little different.  everyone keeps factoring in the "what ifs" in that game with the aikers 2 missed FG's.  But, what if james jones hadn't dropped that perfectly thrown ball from rogers at the end of the 1st half?  those 6 point are then meaningless because jones had a clear path to the end zone.

you also mentioned that philly never had a run game?  What?  They were the #5 ranked rush offense in the NFL with 5.4 yards/carry and 145 yards/game.  McCoy (5.2 yards/carry and Vick (6.8 yards/carry).

Packers didnt score more because they: dropped that easy TD pass ,turned the ball over too many times, and played way too conservative in the 2nd half.

Did you see the philly pocket collapse every time the pack blitzed on SELECTED plays?  Did you see the rotational "spies" designated on Vick out of their linebacking core?  They had a gameplan and executed.  Their bullsh** turnovers, drops, and lame playcalling almost cost them in the end, but they got it done.

Just like steve young said after the saints win in atlanta, the falcons are 1 year away from making a run and have really overachieved this season.  Their defense relies too much on turnovers and is weak overall and their pass offense lack a reliable "slot" receiver for ryan.  i mean c'mon man, harry douglas?

PACK $ LINE

A week of rest doesn't assure any team of winning.    The advantage is only 52% to 48%. 

Never said Atlanta doesn't have a good team and it won't be a tough game for the Packers.   

Ok let me just say something to get the record straight. I'm not basing my whole bet on the fact that packers snuck out of phili. Yes james jones dropped that td pass which would of made it 21-3 at the half. yes phili rushes, and finished 5th in the league in rushing. but how many times of those rushing vick yards was it scrabbling for rushing yards. what im trying to say there is phili is a pass first team where atlanta is a ground and pound it team with turner, which will help matt ryan out alot. yes both teams are very evenly matched. im not thinkin atlanta is going to win this game 42-3 and rodgers is going to throw for 50 interceptions. what im sayin is the packers i feel are being backed by everyone in this world and people think that aaron rodgers and company cant do a thing wrong. this is a team that went just 3-5 on the road this year. matt ryan is 19-2 lifetime as a starter in atlanta. they have a great running game with turner, who missed a few games earlier in the year. they have a qb in matt ryan is who like i have stated is 19-2 lifetime at home, so maybe rodgers will outplay him but hes still one of the best in the league. they have a great fg kicker, helps being in a dome. they have one of the best TE in the game in tony gonzalez who has been waiting forever for a shot at this. they have a good receiving core with White leading the way, and they have played in a lot of close games that they have been on the winning side of it. 7 of gb 10 wins this year were won by more than 7 pts, but 5/6 losses were within 7 points. GB is fine when they destroy teams but seem to struggle when in tight games. now they have had to beat the giants and bears at home, which the bears game was ugly for both offences, they traveled to phili, where both teams at times looked sloppy. and now they have to go down into atlanta to play in a dome where atlanta is incredible and went 7-1 this year and only loss came on monday night in a game where the defending superbowl champs, and division rival saints had to win to get into the playoffs.

im not saying gb isnt good, cause there not, they are great, but so is atlanta, they played in a tough division minus those panthers from carolina, and they no how to win the close games. i dont know why aaron rodgers doesnt throw the ball 50 times a game, but its been proven all year long that no matter how good or bad the run game is for gb, mike mccarthy keeps trying to run the ball. they run the ball between 25-30 times a game. that is a lot of runs for a team that cant run the damn ball. rodgers will have trouble with the crowd noise if every 3rd down seems to be 3rd and 6 or more.

Dont get me wrong, the Atlanta offense is solid and they do have a good kicker.  Roddy is in my opinion the best receiver in the nfl right now.  But you are not even addressing the fact of how mediocre the falcons defense is.  Has green bay been a little shaky with their offense in the last 3 games, of course.  But, my main emphasis here is how dominant the packer defense has been this year and how battle tested they have been as well.  Their defense has been carrying them for sure in their last 3.

Atlanta has been torched through the air all year (22nd ranked pass D) and weak on the ground (4.6 yards/carry).  Like i have mentioned in other forums, the only thing that kept this mediocre defense in games this season is turnovers.  If the packers limit their stupid turnovers this week, their offense return to its potency will move the ball at will. 

Will the packer D shut down the falcon offense?  No.  I love the falcon O line and it will allow the falcon offense to sustain drives.   But the offense will not be able to keep up on this one.

But like you said, this will be a great game and discussions like these opens up a lot more angles to these games.

 good luck

Toss up game in my eyes, no value on either side.

  even after weighing it all up  g.bay have been in the playoff games for a couple of weeks its time they lost one,atlanta will be a better representation for the nfl in the next round...

short week on the road v good home team, very tough ask, baltimore can pull that one off,i like the jets to cover too,