i think del rio is one of the more underrated coaches. he's no genius, but does a good job and has the right attitude. i don't watch jax much because they aren't very exciting and i don't seem to bet on their games much but when i do, i don't see a lot of the stupid shit i regularly see with a lot of teams.
Del Rio is a dummy. Ok, great call here but overall he is horrendous. He uses his best player (MJD) barely in games. He should be your bread and butter. I think Cowher as coach for JAX would get them deep.
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
i think del rio is one of the more underrated coaches. he's no genius, but does a good job and has the right attitude. i don't watch jax much because they aren't very exciting and i don't seem to bet on their games much but when i do, i don't see a lot of the stupid shit i regularly see with a lot of teams.
Del Rio is a dummy. Ok, great call here but overall he is horrendous. He uses his best player (MJD) barely in games. He should be your bread and butter. I think Cowher as coach for JAX would get them deep.
Del Rio is a dummy. Ok, great call here but overall he is horrendous. He uses his best player (MJD) barely in games. He should be your bread and butter. I think Cowher as coach for JAX would get them deep.
only 3 running backs in the league with more than 10 more carries than jones-drew and only 3 running backs with more catches than jones-drew. i guess they could give it to him every play they run, but the defense might catch on and it might wear him down a little bit.
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Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:
Del Rio is a dummy. Ok, great call here but overall he is horrendous. He uses his best player (MJD) barely in games. He should be your bread and butter. I think Cowher as coach for JAX would get them deep.
only 3 running backs in the league with more than 10 more carries than jones-drew and only 3 running backs with more catches than jones-drew. i guess they could give it to him every play they run, but the defense might catch on and it might wear him down a little bit.
1. Kick the FG (basically and EP) - the extra point is probably a 98% probability.
2. Score the TD, go up by either 5 or 7 (2 pt conv), and give the jets the ball with 1.40 needing a TD. I would say the chances of the Jets scoring a TD in that situation with 1.40 left is probably about 15%.
2% chance of losing vs 15% chance of losing.
Great coaching.
Where do you come up with numbers like that? I agree that was the right play by MJD, but where do you get those statistics?
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
You have 2 options if you are the Jaguars:
1. Kick the FG (basically and EP) - the extra point is probably a 98% probability.
2. Score the TD, go up by either 5 or 7 (2 pt conv), and give the jets the ball with 1.40 needing a TD. I would say the chances of the Jets scoring a TD in that situation with 1.40 left is probably about 15%.
2% chance of losing vs 15% chance of losing.
Great coaching.
Where do you come up with numbers like that? I agree that was the right play by MJD, but where do you get those statistics?
Where do you come up with numbers like that? I agree that was the right play by MJD, but where do you get those statistics?
Extra ponts in NFL is around 98.5% since 2000. Here is a link for you.
I was saying 15% for the Jets to score a TD with 1.40 left based on ingame betting. I think 5-1 is a fair price on that. Do you have a better guess? Are you even suggesting that it is close to 2%? What is your guess?
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Quote Originally Posted by Robb52:
Where do you come up with numbers like that? I agree that was the right play by MJD, but where do you get those statistics?
Extra ponts in NFL is around 98.5% since 2000. Here is a link for you.
I was saying 15% for the Jets to score a TD with 1.40 left based on ingame betting. I think 5-1 is a fair price on that. Do you have a better guess? Are you even suggesting that it is close to 2%? What is your guess?
A botched snap on the kick or a fluke missed field goal and Del Rio would be like an idiot. I understand it but I'd rather take the guaranteed points anytime because crazy shit happens every Sunday. And I would also have handed it to MJD on 3rd down so maybe you can go up 7 with little time left and if not just kick the FG. Just my 2cents. (Had MJD in fantasy and it may have cost me the season so yeah I'm biased)
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A botched snap on the kick or a fluke missed field goal and Del Rio would be like an idiot. I understand it but I'd rather take the guaranteed points anytime because crazy shit happens every Sunday. And I would also have handed it to MJD on 3rd down so maybe you can go up 7 with little time left and if not just kick the FG. Just my 2cents. (Had MJD in fantasy and it may have cost me the season so yeah I'm biased)
A botched snap on the kick or a fluke missed field goal and Del Rio would be like an idiot. I understand it but I'd rather take the guaranteed points anytime because crazy shit happens every Sunday. And I would also have handed it to MJD on 3rd down so maybe you can go up 7 with little time left and if not just kick the FG. Just my 2cents. (Had MJD in fantasy and it may have cost me the season so yeah I'm biased)
So you would rather lose 15% of the time than 1.5% of the time?
An EP in the NFL is 98.5%.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by vvryan11:
A botched snap on the kick or a fluke missed field goal and Del Rio would be like an idiot. I understand it but I'd rather take the guaranteed points anytime because crazy shit happens every Sunday. And I would also have handed it to MJD on 3rd down so maybe you can go up 7 with little time left and if not just kick the FG. Just my 2cents. (Had MJD in fantasy and it may have cost me the season so yeah I'm biased)
So you would rather lose 15% of the time than 1.5% of the time?
Westbrook did it in WEEK 16 and cost several FF Owners a championship, including me....lost by 2 when I should've won the title by 4. Still haven't forgiven him
Let it go mah man, let it go. real football players don't care about fantasy.
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Quote Originally Posted by JunkyardDog:
Westbrook did it in WEEK 16 and cost several FF Owners a championship, including me....lost by 2 when I should've won the title by 4. Still haven't forgiven him
Let it go mah man, let it go. real football players don't care about fantasy.
was a statistically smart play by MJD however, neither team played defense yesterday and i think the jets had 1 time out left and 1:40 on the clock so maybe 15% is a bit low just based on how the teams were playing yesterday
the jags couldnt cover keller all day and the jets would have had enough time to work the middle of the field if needed
that being said, rookie coach, rookie qb and my jets...so maybe 15% is a little high?
given that i was at the jets fish game and the jets jags game, ive done my share of suffering this year
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was a statistically smart play by MJD however, neither team played defense yesterday and i think the jets had 1 time out left and 1:40 on the clock so maybe 15% is a bit low just based on how the teams were playing yesterday
the jags couldnt cover keller all day and the jets would have had enough time to work the middle of the field if needed
that being said, rookie coach, rookie qb and my jets...so maybe 15% is a little high?
given that i was at the jets fish game and the jets jags game, ive done my share of suffering this year
Finally coaches & a player both understand clock management. Jets are right to let me score. Jags and MJD are right to take a knee. It's simple math. Most coaches/players don't understand...
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Finally coaches & a player both understand clock management. Jets are right to let me score. Jags and MJD are right to take a knee. It's simple math. Most coaches/players don't understand...
Let it go mah man, let it go. real football players don't care about fantasy.
You couldn't be more wrong there. As a matter of fact MJD told reporters in pre season this year to pick him in fantasy, cuz he is going to go wild. He further went on to say he picked himself in leagues he was in. Not to mention he again referenced fantasy football this week after screwing out the owners. Pro football players love that fantasy shit.
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Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:
Let it go mah man, let it go. real football players don't care about fantasy.
You couldn't be more wrong there. As a matter of fact MJD told reporters in pre season this year to pick him in fantasy, cuz he is going to go wild. He further went on to say he picked himself in leagues he was in. Not to mention he again referenced fantasy football this week after screwing out the owners. Pro football players love that fantasy shit.
I am so sick and tired of these idiots on ESPN acting confused over the play. All I see is pretty much "Wow, why would he do that? The Jags were losing the game. They have to take the points." Can none of these media idiots ever think outside of the box??? It was the correct thing to do since NYJ had no time outs. Yeah, they were down but rather safe to say the Jags could make a 20 yard field goal. I wish more coaches or players could figure this stuff out.
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I am so sick and tired of these idiots on ESPN acting confused over the play. All I see is pretty much "Wow, why would he do that? The Jags were losing the game. They have to take the points." Can none of these media idiots ever think outside of the box??? It was the correct thing to do since NYJ had no time outs. Yeah, they were down but rather safe to say the Jags could make a 20 yard field goal. I wish more coaches or players could figure this stuff out.
Sure the play turned out alright and arguably it could be a great idea. However, FG's are never guaranteed in the NFL, especially with these douchebag kickers. MJD gave up a 100% score, being down in the game. What would have happened if 1.) the kick was blocked, 2.) a botched snap perhaps over the head of the kicker, 3.) a simply missed FG. 4.) a holding call or false start pushing the kicker back. etc. making the kick further... There are many things that could have gone wrong that not taking a 100% score when down is debatable. If the Jags couldn't hold Sanchez and crew from not scoring a TD at the end, they don't deserve to win in the first place. Glad it worked out for Jax, but you can make a case for both sides. If you can't then you're just an old crotchity jackass.
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Sure the play turned out alright and arguably it could be a great idea. However, FG's are never guaranteed in the NFL, especially with these douchebag kickers. MJD gave up a 100% score, being down in the game. What would have happened if 1.) the kick was blocked, 2.) a botched snap perhaps over the head of the kicker, 3.) a simply missed FG. 4.) a holding call or false start pushing the kicker back. etc. making the kick further... There are many things that could have gone wrong that not taking a 100% score when down is debatable. If the Jags couldn't hold Sanchez and crew from not scoring a TD at the end, they don't deserve to win in the first place. Glad it worked out for Jax, but you can make a case for both sides. If you can't then you're just an old crotchity jackass.
1. Kick the FG (basically and EP) - the extra point is probably a 98% probability.
2. Score the TD, go up by either 5 or 7 (2 pt conv), and give the jets the ball with 1.40 needing a TD. I would say the chances of the Jets scoring a TD in that situation with 1.40 left is probably about 15%.
2% chance of losing vs 15% chance of losing.
Great coaching.
I'd say more like 7-8 % chance of Jets scoring a TD- 1:44 and no time outs with Sanchez ? Still definitely was the right thing to do.
What about SD kicking a FG from the 12 yard line with 30 secs left to go up 8 ?
Was that better than going for it, not making a first down, but leaving Philly at their own 10 with no time outs and like 25 seconds left down 5 ?
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
You have 2 options if you are the Jaguars:
1. Kick the FG (basically and EP) - the extra point is probably a 98% probability.
2. Score the TD, go up by either 5 or 7 (2 pt conv), and give the jets the ball with 1.40 needing a TD. I would say the chances of the Jets scoring a TD in that situation with 1.40 left is probably about 15%.
2% chance of losing vs 15% chance of losing.
Great coaching.
I'd say more like 7-8 % chance of Jets scoring a TD- 1:44 and no time outs with Sanchez ? Still definitely was the right thing to do.
What about SD kicking a FG from the 12 yard line with 30 secs left to go up 8 ?
Was that better than going for it, not making a first down, but leaving Philly at their own 10 with no time outs and like 25 seconds left down 5 ?
The three guys on Around The Horn just now trashed Del Rio and called him stupid and said he deserved to be fired if they missed the kick. I guess I don't blame these NFL coaches for just doing the same shit. Every NFL team should hire a robot because if you do anything that goes against the basic script, no matter how much sense it makes (like this play), you will be absolutely barbecued in the media.
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The three guys on Around The Horn just now trashed Del Rio and called him stupid and said he deserved to be fired if they missed the kick. I guess I don't blame these NFL coaches for just doing the same shit. Every NFL team should hire a robot because if you do anything that goes against the basic script, no matter how much sense it makes (like this play), you will be absolutely barbecued in the media.
So you would rather lose 15% of the time than 1.5% of the time?
An EP in the NFL is 98.5%.
the chance of the jets getting the ball back after a jags TD and scoring a TD of their own to tie it AND then also winning the game in OT is far less than 15%
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
So you would rather lose 15% of the time than 1.5% of the time?
An EP in the NFL is 98.5%.
the chance of the jets getting the ball back after a jags TD and scoring a TD of their own to tie it AND then also winning the game in OT is far less than 15%
Sure the play turned out alright and arguably it could be a great idea. However, FG's are never guaranteed in the NFL, especially with these douchebag kickers. MJD gave up a 100% score, being down in the game. What would have happened if 1.) the kick was blocked, 2.) a botched snap perhaps over the head of the kicker, 3.) a simply missed FG. 4.) a holding call or false start pushing the kicker back. etc. making the kick further... There are many things that could have gone wrong that not taking a 100% score when down is debatable. If the Jags couldn't hold Sanchez and crew from not scoring a TD at the end, they don't deserve to win in the first place. Glad it worked out for Jax, but you canmake a case for both sides. If you can't then you're just an old crotchity jackass.
This wasn't 100% probability of working. There are a number of things that could have gone wrong as you mention. However, I think it is pretty clear that the probability of success with this route is higher than the prob of success with the traditional route. Perhaps that makes me an old crotchety jackass....I'm not sure.
Advancednflstats.com looked at the probability on this on a more sophisticated level and came to the conclusion that it was an even bigger advantage than what Vanzack says.
" If the Jags couldn't hold Sanchez and crew from not scoring a TD at the end, they don't deserve to win in the first place. "
Why do people post stuff like this?
You just got done saying "random shit happens...get used to it" and then you post that. The coach owes it to his players to give them the best chance at success.
Why not say if we can't convert an extra point distance kick, we don't deserve to win?
For that matter, why doesn't the coach just run on the field and commit an unsportsmanlike penalty? If we can't convert a 1st and 25, we don't deserve to win?
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Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:
Sure the play turned out alright and arguably it could be a great idea. However, FG's are never guaranteed in the NFL, especially with these douchebag kickers. MJD gave up a 100% score, being down in the game. What would have happened if 1.) the kick was blocked, 2.) a botched snap perhaps over the head of the kicker, 3.) a simply missed FG. 4.) a holding call or false start pushing the kicker back. etc. making the kick further... There are many things that could have gone wrong that not taking a 100% score when down is debatable. If the Jags couldn't hold Sanchez and crew from not scoring a TD at the end, they don't deserve to win in the first place. Glad it worked out for Jax, but you canmake a case for both sides. If you can't then you're just an old crotchity jackass.
This wasn't 100% probability of working. There are a number of things that could have gone wrong as you mention. However, I think it is pretty clear that the probability of success with this route is higher than the prob of success with the traditional route. Perhaps that makes me an old crotchety jackass....I'm not sure.
Advancednflstats.com looked at the probability on this on a more sophisticated level and came to the conclusion that it was an even bigger advantage than what Vanzack says.
" If the Jags couldn't hold Sanchez and crew from not scoring a TD at the end, they don't deserve to win in the first place. "
Why do people post stuff like this?
You just got done saying "random shit happens...get used to it" and then you post that. The coach owes it to his players to give them the best chance at success.
Why not say if we can't convert an extra point distance kick, we don't deserve to win?
For that matter, why doesn't the coach just run on the field and commit an unsportsmanlike penalty? If we can't convert a 1st and 25, we don't deserve to win?
the chance of the jets getting the ball back after a jags TD and scoring a TD of their own to tie it AND then also winning the game in OT is far less than 15%
No, it isn't.
Average NFL offenses score TDs on 20% of their drives with an average time of possession of around 2:50 (this is all drives. I could not find stats for two minute drives only which would actually be skewed based on teams only needing a FG).
Two point conversion rate is ~43%.
OT coin toss winner is 60-40 to win, coin toss is 50-50, of course.
These numbers actually figure out to around an 18% probability of the Jets winning but by rounding them to even 50/50s:
Jags lose in regulation after failed conversion - 10 out of 100 Jags lose in OT after successful conversion - 5 out of 100
15% probability... not a bad educated guess by vanzack
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Quote Originally Posted by raymour:
the chance of the jets getting the ball back after a jags TD and scoring a TD of their own to tie it AND then also winning the game in OT is far less than 15%
No, it isn't.
Average NFL offenses score TDs on 20% of their drives with an average time of possession of around 2:50 (this is all drives. I could not find stats for two minute drives only which would actually be skewed based on teams only needing a FG).
Two point conversion rate is ~43%.
OT coin toss winner is 60-40 to win, coin toss is 50-50, of course.
These numbers actually figure out to around an 18% probability of the Jets winning but by rounding them to even 50/50s:
Jags lose in regulation after failed conversion - 10 out of 100 Jags lose in OT after successful conversion - 5 out of 100
15% probability... not a bad educated guess by vanzack
Seriously for those who don't understand, HOW HARD IS THIS TO FIGURE OUT??? Nothing is 100% until the clock is at zero, but Jags have 98.5% chance of winning by kicking a FG. They have an 85% chance of winning by scoring a TD. SIMPLE MATH. SIMPLE MATH. SIMPLE MATH..
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Seriously for those who don't understand, HOW HARD IS THIS TO FIGURE OUT??? Nothing is 100% until the clock is at zero, but Jags have 98.5% chance of winning by kicking a FG. They have an 85% chance of winning by scoring a TD. SIMPLE MATH. SIMPLE MATH. SIMPLE MATH..
the chance of the jets getting the ball back after a jags TD and scoring a TD of their own to tie it AND then also winning the game in OT is far less than 15%
The Jags would have had to go for 2. That has about a 40% success rate. Without the 2, there is no OT.
Any way you slice it - can you possibly tell me any scenario where it reduces the Jets chances of winning the game to less than 1.5%????
If you cant, then this is all mental masturbation. Kick the FG, win the game 98.5% of the time. Period.
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Quote Originally Posted by raymour:
the chance of the jets getting the ball back after a jags TD and scoring a TD of their own to tie it AND then also winning the game in OT is far less than 15%
The Jags would have had to go for 2. That has about a 40% success rate. Without the 2, there is no OT.
Any way you slice it - can you possibly tell me any scenario where it reduces the Jets chances of winning the game to less than 1.5%????
If you cant, then this is all mental masturbation. Kick the FG, win the game 98.5% of the time. Period.
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