Quoting Andarmac99 from his Week 7 thread.......
"One of the sweetest NFL trends that I have seen is in play this week not once but twice! That trend is winless underdogs off a bye who are at least 0-4. It does not happen often but over the last 20 years this trend is 19-2 ATS and both of those losses were by just 1 point on the closing line.
It makes sense when you think about it. By this time it has been widely established that these teams stink so you will get them at a cheap price. Plus they are off a bye, rested, and ready to give it all to get a win and avoid the embarrassment of another loss. And another thing is these teams look putrid and it is very difficult for favorites to get up for them. When you combine all three of those elements you get one hell of a spot to back a garbage team. Of those 21 games the stinky winless dogs have actually gone 13-8 SU with some monster SU wins as 12, 10, 10, 9.5, 8.5 and 8.5 dogs. The lone game that fit this trend last year was winless Tampa against Green Bay and all they did was win SU as 9.5 dogs.
There are some other nice things working in favor of both these dogs. As far as the Bills go I just cant see how the Ravens get up for these losers with a bye on deck and off that tough game in New England last week that was physically and emotionally draining. The Ravens defense was on the field for 40 minutes and 73 plays last week. I dont care how bad of a mismatch this looks like, you have to be at your best to win by 2 touchdowns in this league. Baltimore was in a similar spot earlier this year against Cleveland off a very tough game and they looked lazy as the Browns covered basically all game. The Ravens are giving up 4.3 yards per carry this year which is kind of surprising. Buffalo can run it and they have a good special teams.
As far as the Panthers go, while I dont think the Niners will be overlooking the Panthers by any means, this is a tough spot. They finally got the money off their backs but looked unimpressive again and now have to fly all the way out east. Take a look at the Niners offense too.....they have done diddle squat. It is even worse on the road where they have managed 2 offensive touchdowns in 3 games and one of them was a garbage TD with literally 1 second left in a 31-3 game. That is basically 1 offensive touchdown in 29 possessions which is horrendous. Carolina has a sneaky good defense too as they have held opponents to just 3.8 YPC and 6.1 YPA which is 3rd in the league. That YPA isnt a fluke either as they were 8th in the league at 6.6 YPA last year."
Quoting Andarmac99 from his Week 7 thread.......
"One of the sweetest NFL trends that I have seen is in play this week not once but twice! That trend is winless underdogs off a bye who are at least 0-4. It does not happen often but over the last 20 years this trend is 19-2 ATS and both of those losses were by just 1 point on the closing line.
It makes sense when you think about it. By this time it has been widely established that these teams stink so you will get them at a cheap price. Plus they are off a bye, rested, and ready to give it all to get a win and avoid the embarrassment of another loss. And another thing is these teams look putrid and it is very difficult for favorites to get up for them. When you combine all three of those elements you get one hell of a spot to back a garbage team. Of those 21 games the stinky winless dogs have actually gone 13-8 SU with some monster SU wins as 12, 10, 10, 9.5, 8.5 and 8.5 dogs. The lone game that fit this trend last year was winless Tampa against Green Bay and all they did was win SU as 9.5 dogs.
There are some other nice things working in favor of both these dogs. As far as the Bills go I just cant see how the Ravens get up for these losers with a bye on deck and off that tough game in New England last week that was physically and emotionally draining. The Ravens defense was on the field for 40 minutes and 73 plays last week. I dont care how bad of a mismatch this looks like, you have to be at your best to win by 2 touchdowns in this league. Baltimore was in a similar spot earlier this year against Cleveland off a very tough game and they looked lazy as the Browns covered basically all game. The Ravens are giving up 4.3 yards per carry this year which is kind of surprising. Buffalo can run it and they have a good special teams.
As far as the Panthers go, while I dont think the Niners will be overlooking the Panthers by any means, this is a tough spot. They finally got the money off their backs but looked unimpressive again and now have to fly all the way out east. Take a look at the Niners offense too.....they have done diddle squat. It is even worse on the road where they have managed 2 offensive touchdowns in 3 games and one of them was a garbage TD with literally 1 second left in a 31-3 game. That is basically 1 offensive touchdown in 29 possessions which is horrendous. Carolina has a sneaky good defense too as they have held opponents to just 3.8 YPC and 6.1 YPA which is 3rd in the league. That YPA isnt a fluke either as they were 8th in the league at 6.6 YPA last year."
Quoting Andarmac99 from his Week 7 thread.......
"One of the sweetest NFL trends that I have seen is in play this week not once but twice! That trend is winless underdogs off a bye who are at least 0-4. It does not happen often but over the last 20 years this trend is 19-2 ATS and both of those losses were by just 1 point on the closing line.
It makes sense when you think about it. By this time it has been widely established that these teams stink so you will get them at a cheap price. Plus they are off a bye, rested, and ready to give it all to get a win and avoid the embarrassment of another loss. And another thing is these teams look putrid and it is very difficult for favorites to get up for them. When you combine all three of those elements you get one hell of a spot to back a garbage team. Of those 21 games the stinky winless dogs have actually gone 13-8 SU with some monster SU wins as 12, 10, 10, 9.5, 8.5 and 8.5 dogs. The lone game that fit this trend last year was winless Tampa against Green Bay and all they did was win SU as 9.5 dogs.
There are some other nice things working in favor of both these dogs. As far as the Bills go I just cant see how the Ravens get up for these losers with a bye on deck and off that tough game in New England last week that was physically and emotionally draining. The Ravens defense was on the field for 40 minutes and 73 plays last week. I dont care how bad of a mismatch this looks like, you have to be at your best to win by 2 touchdowns in this league. Baltimore was in a similar spot earlier this year against Cleveland off a very tough game and they looked lazy as the Browns covered basically all game. The Ravens are giving up 4.3 yards per carry this year which is kind of surprising. Buffalo can run it and they have a good special teams.
As far as the Panthers go, while I dont think the Niners will be overlooking the Panthers by any means, this is a tough spot. They finally got the money off their backs but looked unimpressive again and now have to fly all the way out east. Take a look at the Niners offense too.....they have done diddle squat. It is even worse on the road where they have managed 2 offensive touchdowns in 3 games and one of them was a garbage TD with literally 1 second left in a 31-3 game. That is basically 1 offensive touchdown in 29 possessions which is horrendous. Carolina has a sneaky good defense too as they have held opponents to just 3.8 YPC and 6.1 YPA which is 3rd in the league. That YPA isnt a fluke either as they were 8th in the league at 6.6 YPA last year."
But just wait and see
You'll come running back
You'll come running back to me."
The title of this treatise is actually one of the rare songs recorded by the Rolling Stones that was not penned by Mick Jagger or Keith Richards.
When they performed "Time Is on My Side" during their first guest spot on The Ed Sullivan Show, Sullivan was shocked by their appearance and declared that they would never be invited onto the show again, but rather than kicking them to the curb, he subsequently invited them back several times.
One of the Stones' most popular tunes, it was re-recorded in cover versions by numerous other artists over the years, including the likes of: The Who, Del Shannon, INXS, Tina Turner and most recently, Tim Urban on a broadcast of American Idol this spring.
For our purposes it plays into one our favorite NFL handicapping theories, involving winless teams with rest.
Similar to our 'WAKE UP CALL' article penned in the 2008 edition of the BLACK BOOK™, the twist in this that the premise applies to all NFL teams that have yet to taste victory when they are coming off a Bye Week.
It's an idea that works for two reasons. One: winless teams bring value from the oddsmaker in to each game, and Two: rest does wonders for clubs that are struggling.
Our powerful database confirms both notions.
For openers, dogs who are 0-4 or worse on the season have gone 146-95-5 ATS since 1980, a 59.5% winning proposition on the blind. These same teams in non-division games are 88-52-5 ATS, including a surprising 86-55-9 to the 'OVER' in these contests
Secondly, winless dogs playing with rest, at any stage of the season, bark as loud as any. In fact, if you were to -
You would own a super sweet 33-21-1 ATS winning mark since 1980.
Better yet, bring these same guys in as dogs of six or more points and suddenly you're talking of a 75% winning investment, as they improve to 21-7 ATS in this spot (a nice name for dogs of this breed).
Incidentally, if the opponent enters the game with at least one blemish (loss) on its record, these hungry dogs with time on their side ratchet up to 18-3 ATS, while winning 11 of the 21 games in straight-up fashion. Talk about getting off the schneid!
Last year only team found itself howling in this role but it was a dandy when Tampa Bay took 9.5 points at home against Green Bay. It marked the debut of Josh Freeman as a starting QB in this league and he responded with a stirring 38-28 win over the Packers.
This week finds the Buffalo Bills and the Carolina Panthers with plenty of 'time on their side'.
Rolling right along, you can learn a 17-0 ATS perfect 'best in show' tightener inside this angle simply by checking out our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and clicking on the 2010 BLACK BOOK link on the 'PLAYBOOK TOOLBOX' for all the details.
So instead of abandoning these lost puppies, "Now you always say, that you want to be free. You'll come running back. You'll come running back to me. Because time is on my side, yes it is..."
There have been eight 0-4 or worse teams in the last 20 seasons playing off a bye. All eight covered, and incredibly, seven of the eight covered the line by double digits! Five of the eight pulled the shocker. Buffalo has a better chance today than any Ravens teaser bettor wants to believe.
Go Bills. 
There have been eight 0-4 or worse teams in the last 20 seasons playing off a bye. All eight covered, and incredibly, seven of the eight covered the line by double digits! Five of the eight pulled the shocker. Buffalo has a better chance today than any Ravens teaser bettor wants to believe.
Go Bills.
There have been eight 0-4 or worse teams in the last 20 seasons playing off a bye. All eight covered, and incredibly, seven of the eight covered the line by double digits! Five of the eight pulled the shocker. Buffalo has a better chance today than any Ravens teaser bettor wants to believe.
Go Bills.
All the Joe Six packs will be on Balt. Let's Go Bills!!!
Quoting Andarmac99 from his Week 7 thread.......
"One of the sweetest NFL trends that I have seen is in play this week not once but twice! That trend is winless underdogs off a bye who are at least 0-4. It does not happen often but over the last 20 years this trend is 19-2 ATS and both of those losses were by just 1 point on the closing line.
It makes sense when you think about it. By this time it has been widely established that these teams stink so you will get them at a cheap price. Plus they are off a bye, rested, and ready to give it all to get a win and avoid the embarrassment of another loss. And another thing is these teams look putrid and it is very difficult for favorites to get up for them. When you combine all three of those elements you get one hell of a spot to back a garbage team. Of those 21 games the stinky winless dogs have actually gone 13-8 SU with some monster SU wins as 12, 10, 10, 9.5, 8.5 and 8.5 dogs. The lone game that fit this trend last year was winless Tampa against Green Bay and all they did was win SU as 9.5 dogs.
There are some other nice things working in favor of both these dogs. As far as the Bills go I just cant see how the Ravens get up for these losers with a bye on deck and off that tough game in New England last week that was physically and emotionally draining. The Ravens defense was on the field for 40 minutes and 73 plays last week. I dont care how bad of a mismatch this looks like, you have to be at your best to win by 2 touchdowns in this league. Baltimore was in a similar spot earlier this year against Cleveland off a very tough game and they looked lazy as the Browns covered basically all game. The Ravens are giving up 4.3 yards per carry this year which is kind of surprising. Buffalo can run it and they have a good special teams.
As far as the Panthers go, while I dont think the Niners will be overlooking the Panthers by any means, this is a tough spot. They finally got the money off their backs but looked unimpressive again and now have to fly all the way out east. Take a look at the Niners offense too.....they have done diddle squat. It is even worse on the road where they have managed 2 offensive touchdowns in 3 games and one of them was a garbage TD with literally 1 second left in a 31-3 game. That is basically 1 offensive touchdown in 29 possessions which is horrendous. Carolina has a sneaky good defense too as they have held opponents to just 3.8 YPC and 6.1 YPA which is 3rd in the league. That YPA isnt a fluke either as they were 8th in the league at 6.6 YPA last year."
This post deserves a :
I just cant see myself laying money on Buffalo, what a disaster of a team. Carolina makes sense.
Thanks, Mrbator! I remember the Bills lost this game after having a 17 point lead, in overtime.
I came all the way from the future to tell you that @jfelty in 2026 said this was a lie.
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