Wild Wild Wildcard Weekend....

@MrBator

 Second that!

When Mr. B chastised you it is for real and he is good at it.

Just getting back to this after doing some travelling to attend the Bucs / Eagles game last night...

Even for covers, I am surprised reading this thread.  All in the context of what covers is and what it attracts...  But man there are some angry incels around here.  

I enjoy a good sparring session on covers.  But these guys are so far below the capability of being able to conduct some kind of fun back and forth that I almost feel bad for picking on the developmentally disabled.  So I will pass.  It is the same people over and over - and it is tiresome - not fun.

I genuinely thank everyone who has kind words to say.  Too many to thank individually under the covers format - but I did read the whole thread and I thank you.  I know that what I do does help people.  And I know we help the animal shelters also.  

It burns the haters up that someone wins consistently, asks for nothing except for people to donate.  They want it to be not true.  So they peck away trying to get me to break.  Not happening.  I have even tried to have conversations here about suggestions for adding vig in to my record - because it is complicated and not so easy to do for many reasons - and nobody has suggested anything.  I am open.  Do I keep vig for what I get?  What the best price is at any book?  What the best price is at American books?  What the price is when I post?  What if it gets better or worse?  It aint so easy.  I am posting lines that are usually widely available in the -103 average range.

Whatever vig you decide to add in takes my record over the past 7 winning seasons from great to still great.  Its like bringing sand to the beach.

3-3, up 2 units so far on playoffs.  Not where I wanted to be - but much better than a kick to the nuts.

On to next week!  I realized that posting early was a dumb move on my part.  I didnt think it all the way through.  I will post all 4 games this Friday. 

Until then...

*** And the vig discussion is so important in my case because IT IS THE CORE OF MY PROCESS AND WHAT I HAVE PREACHED HERE FOR 2 DECADES.

Getting the best line/price you can is the #1 thing a sports bettor can do to improve.  This is fundamental to me.

So why would I post -110 prices, when the thought of paying -110 goes against everything I stand for?  (I dont mean -110 literally.  I mean when American books have a line at -110, I am getting the same spread cheaper)

Think about it.

This comment was made with regards to Super bowl odds prior to playoffs starting.  Several posts later it was stated he did not believe the Bills would actually win the SB, just that at the current odds, that was his pick.  

All the pressure is on Josh Allen and the Bills this week..... KC playing with house money for probably first time since Mahomes was named starter 

@kcblitzkrieg

I like the Chiefs this week.

I have a Bills ticket at 38-1 that I am probably going to get out of.  I dont think they can keep winning with a defense of reserves, and I think the Chiefs will win.  But if not the Chiefs - I dont see the Bills having much of a shot in Balt.  And if not Balt, then they have the Niners.  Just dont see it.

But I am in a good position to sell now.

Some might wonder about me "hedging".  Remember - if something fundamental has changed over time about a bet - it is a perfectly good spot to hedge.  And yes - I will be paying double vig on it when I do sell - but I feel like I overcome that double vig in this case.

@vanzack

  I've made money following you and appreciate your process and educational posts. As you can see, I've been around for a long time but rarely post. When I see a few key board heros attacking someone who only wants to help others I have to speak up. Theres no rhyme or reason to it. Simple jealousy and the need for attention. You can't fix stupid. Thanks for your knowledge and willingess to share it. 

MrBator, Kauffee, and now a 21 year covers member with only 4 posts!

Epic thread.

Thanks

Are we not adults here? It's your money. Make your own bets. Take responsibility for your choices. Van is a resource. A tremendous resource. He's not my only resource but I pay attention to what he says. When I disagree with his pick, I have three options: play against him (which I seldom do); lay off (like Miami at KC); or look at the game again, change my mind, and bet with him (Houston v Cleveland). I come up with my own bets, check them against his and a couple other resources, and then I make my bets. Send 50 bucks to save some kittens. It's a good deal.

Thanks Skipster.  Seems pretty simple.

Especially the part about saving the kittens.

Thanks

@vanzack

 You know it is really a shame all the good people that were on covers that were run off by the TROLLS, they been on Van since I been on here. Not this group but the same kind of trolls that use the internet to harass others just because they think it is fun or maybe it makes them feel tuff, who knows why they get off on it.

Your a class Dude Van and I am sure you can handle these kids.

Congrats on another winning week.

As far as KC/Buffalo goes.....sure, Buffalo has injuries.....but can KC exploit them with limited weapons? Can the KC D contain Allen? Mahomes 1st road playoff game ever.....

Van

@PUSSYGALORE333

 Think it might be higher than 10% out in America in this time frame.

@JEG53

    you might be right.....

@TRAIN69

 As far as KC/Buffalo goes.....sure, Buffalo has injuries.....but can KC exploit them with limited weapons? Can the KC D contain Allen? Mahomes 1st road playoff game ever.....

The "Mahomes 1st road playoff game ever" thing we all knew was going to be the most talked about talking head point prior to this matchup coming to fruition.  I think it is overrated personally.  KC was 6-2 on the road this year, only 5-4 at home.  Without looking it up, I'd guess that KC's ATS road record is much better than their home record since Andy & Mahomes teamed up.  

Mahomes HOME/ROAD splits are essentially the SAME winning percentage:

Road record all time: 38-11 (77.6%)
Home record: 47-13 (78.3%)

I said this last week but it goes again for this week, the KC offense doesn't have trouble moving the ball.  They are a far cry from past teams in scoring ppg but their offense is still highly efficient, 8th overall in NFL.  The problem is they are average at best in the Red Zone, as seen last week vs. Miami when they kicked FOUR FGs inside the RZ and the game went UNDER.  

The matchup earlier this season KC had the same problems.  KC lost that game only scoring 17 points.  They held Allen in check in the passing game but gave up a lot of yards on the ground, Bills ran it 28 times or so with Allen having double digits carries.  I would expect KC's dominant pass defense to approach this the same way with similar results.  IF the Bills can have the same success running then they will have a good chance of winning this game.  

Allen did not have any turnovers yesterday.  He has failed to complete two consecutive games on the year without turning the ball over.  Question of "when" he will turn it over and "what" KC will do with that TO is a big one.  

I also thought it was interesting they opened this line -2.5 instead of -3.  

KC's defense is playing at their ceiling right now, the Bills defense is beat up and not close to their best.  Offensively, both teams should have success moving the ball but RZ scoring will be the difference here.  TDs will beat the Bills, not FGs.  Already mentioned the TO factor with Allen.  This is the Bills chance to "get the monkey off their back" but all the pressure is on them at home while Mahomes is playing with house money for essentially the first time in the post-season.  Should be a great game 

@TRAIN69

@kcblitzkrieg

Think about Kelce in the middle of that Bills banged up defense.  He could have a huge game.