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what are the chances of this parlay hitting? =X

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Posted: #1
PARLAY (6 TEAMS)
[396] CIN BENGALS -3
[403] MIA DOLPHINS ML
[412] SD CHARGERS -15
[414] OAK RAIDERS ML
[415] BAL RAVENS -4
[417] ATL FALCONS ML

20 to win 1377
 
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Posted: #2
I really like the teams you took, but man, did you ever get some really really bad lines. I think it's time to change books.
 
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Posted: #3
Don't see it happening, but good luck!
 
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Posted: #4
5-1 or 4-2 tops, Chargers will screw you and maybe Atl. too.
 
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I see that no one has actually answered your question yet.

Given the current line on each game, the chances of the entire parlay hitting is the combined product of the chances of winning each individual bet. 

Conservatively speaking, that's 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4.5/10

That works out to .009... or in other words.  .9 percent.

Let's round that up to a 1 % chance.

This means that on the average, 99 times out of 100 you will lose $20... for a total loss of $1,980.

1 time out of 100 you will win $1,377... for a total win of $1,377.   The net after 100 games is -$583.

As you can see, it's a negative EV bet.  (Most parlay bets usually are.)
 
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Posted: #6

They'd be a lot better if you get that Baltimore pick outta there.

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

They'd be a lot better if you get that Baltimore pick outta there.


See I think the ATL game is a toss up so that's what I would remove instead/ 

You like STL this week Niner? 

BOL fellas 

 
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Posted: #8
Baltimore will win!




 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

I see that no one has actually answered your question yet.

Given the current line on each game, the chances of the entire parlay hitting is the combined product of the chances of winning each individual bet. 

Conservatively speaking, that's 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4.5/10

That works out to .009... or in other words.  .9 percent.

Let's round that up to a 1 % chance.

This means that on the average, 99 times out of 100 you will lose $20... for a total loss of $1,980.

1 time out of 100 you will win $1,377... for a total win of $1,377.   The net after 100 games is -$583.

As you can see, it's a negative EV bet.  (Most parlay bets usually are.)


That's a little worse than 5-1, right Ed?  They don't allow smart guys in here generally.




 
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Posted: #10
I like it! your biggest worry is Chargers I think but BOL!


 
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

I see that no one has actually answered your question yet.

Given the current line on each game, the chances of the entire parlay hitting is the combined product of the chances of winning each individual bet. 

Conservatively speaking, that's 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4.5/10

That works out to .009... or in other words.  .9 percent.

Let's round that up to a 1 % chance.

This means that on the average, 99 times out of 100 you will lose $20... for a total loss of $1,980.

1 time out of 100 you will win $1,377... for a total win of $1,377.   The net after 100 games is -$583.

As you can see, it's a negative EV bet.  (Most parlay bets usually are.)

Yep..there is a reason Vegas lets you bet Parlays.....

But I do have to admit I can't say i am against you on any pick

BOL

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:


See I think the ATL game is a toss up so that's what I would remove instead/ 

You like STL this week Niner? 

BOL fellas 

Yes I like the Rams in what will be a close game. I really like the 4.5 its at now; however, I will not be surprised if its one of those rare games with a small window where Baltimore wins by 1 or 2 but does not cover.

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

I see that no one has actually answered your question yet.

Given the current line on each game, the chances of the entire parlay hitting is the combined product of the chances of winning each individual bet. 

Conservatively speaking, that's 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4.5/10

That works out to .009... or in other words.  .9 percent.

Let's round that up to a 1 % chance.

This means that on the average, 99 times out of 100 you will lose $20... for a total loss of $1,980.

1 time out of 100 you will win $1,377... for a total win of $1,377.   The net after 100 games is -$583.

As you can see, it's a negative EV bet.  (Most parlay bets usually are.)


But what if this is the 1 !!??



 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Yes I like the Rams in what will be a close game. I really like the 4.5 its at now; however, I will not be surprised if its one of those rare games with a small window where Baltimore wins by 1 or 2 but does not cover.


Fair enough. Appreciate your insight. 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:


Fair enough. Appreciate your insight. 

 

NP - Good to see you bud. That ATL/TB game is a stay away for me, although I lean Atlanta

 
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Posted: #16
The Bengals, Dolphins and or Raiders game will mess up your parlay. I wouldn't touch those game. Too much of a coin toss.
 
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Posted: #17

Detroit Lions -3½ +100

New York Jets -3 -120

Atlanta Falcons +1½ -105

Arizona Cardinals -3½ +100

Green Bay Packers -3½ -105

 

thats what i parlayed what you think iparlay?

 
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Posted: #18
I agree - parlays suck!
Go play the mega millions instead
 
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Posted: #19
Falcons and Dolphins are the hip dogs this week. I don't honestly get what anyone has seen in the first two weeks that makes everyone wanna hammer these plays. TB and Cleveland can easily win outright tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised if both teams win convincingly. I personally think you go 3-3.
 
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Posted: #20
im going 5-0
 
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Posted: #21
I think not buying the hook hurts you in the packers, lions and cardinals games.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

I see that no one has actually answered your question yet.

Given the current line on each game, the chances of the entire parlay hitting is the combined product of the chances of winning each individual bet. 

Conservatively speaking, that's 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4/10 * 1/2 * 4.5/10

That works out to .009... or in other words.  .9 percent.

Let's round that up to a 1 % chance.

This means that on the average, 99 times out of 100 you will lose $20... for a total loss of $1,980.

1 time out of 100 you will win $1,377... for a total win of $1,377.   The net after 100 games is -$583.

As you can see, it's a negative EV bet.  (Most parlay bets usually are.)


Sorry where is the 4/10 odds? arent they all 1/2 so 1/2^6 = 1/64 or 1.6% approx. BIG DIFFERENCE!!! 

I might be wrong, just thought they were all 50/50 odds so yeahh
 
 
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Posted: #23
k thanks elim...i hope i lose i hope im 0-5 haha
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