Take a look at the Bills' stats the last 2 weeks. They got totally dominated by the jets and Panthers and they won both! Now they're back home but they are not very good on O. D is good though. Texans you never know which team shows up. Texans only -3.
Baltimore at home off a bye and after losing 3 in a row -3.5 against the undefeated
Denver Broncos! Like Balty at -3. Denver also off a bye but traveling east.
And maybe Tenny at home off a bye can get their first win vs. Jax. Jax also off a bye.
You think GB/Minny goes over 47?
GL
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Take a look at the Bills' stats the last 2 weeks. They got totally dominated by the jets and Panthers and they won both! Now they're back home but they are not very good on O. D is good though. Texans you never know which team shows up. Texans only -3.
Baltimore at home off a bye and after losing 3 in a row -3.5 against the undefeated
Denver Broncos! Like Balty at -3. Denver also off a bye but traveling east.
And maybe Tenny at home off a bye can get their first win vs. Jax. Jax also off a bye.
I can't say that, because they do play 2 halfs of football. You can really tell when a team lets up...which I hate because the fucking Bengals do it all the time. They didn't Sunday though they stayed on the pedal. Colts can score in bunches. I think this game really depends on the 49ers offense. Because we know the Colts will score 3+ TDS. So if you base it on that 21-9 would have to be the final score. So I think if you look at it like that you can kinda assume how the game will go. 49ers defense has looked fairly decent at times. Singletary is a hard ass. Total is 44 so Vegas expects a score of something like 28-16
This is true. Singletary is pretty good at lighting a fire underneath his players, but that will only get you so far. Colts just look impenetrable on the offensive side, so the Niners are gonna need Gore to chew up a lot of yards and time.
Now, I'm kind of thinking about a 7 pt. teaser. Let's see what you, and everyone reading this, thinks:
I can't say that, because they do play 2 halfs of football. You can really tell when a team lets up...which I hate because the fucking Bengals do it all the time. They didn't Sunday though they stayed on the pedal. Colts can score in bunches. I think this game really depends on the 49ers offense. Because we know the Colts will score 3+ TDS. So if you base it on that 21-9 would have to be the final score. So I think if you look at it like that you can kinda assume how the game will go. 49ers defense has looked fairly decent at times. Singletary is a hard ass. Total is 44 so Vegas expects a score of something like 28-16
This is true. Singletary is pretty good at lighting a fire underneath his players, but that will only get you so far. Colts just look impenetrable on the offensive side, so the Niners are gonna need Gore to chew up a lot of yards and time.
Now, I'm kind of thinking about a 7 pt. teaser. Let's see what you, and everyone reading this, thinks:
I don't know if I can not take the Colts Sunday...If they are laying anything under 14 it seems like it has to be a play. About the Saints Monday... I really like the Falcons I think they are a good team, but they are really banged up in the secondary. They can score... 53.5 is the total
If the Saints play any kind of defense they will cover this game.
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I don't know if I can not take the Colts Sunday...If they are laying anything under 14 it seems like it has to be a play. About the Saints Monday... I really like the Falcons I think they are a good team, but they are really banged up in the secondary. They can score... 53.5 is the total
If the Saints play any kind of defense they will cover this game.
Take a look at the Bills' stats the last 2 weeks. They got totally dominated by the jets and Panthers and they won both! Now they're back home but they are not very good on O. D is good though. Texans you never know which team shows up. Texans only -3. Fitzpatrick really helps the Bills out....I know he isn't a polished NFL QB but he gets first downs. They might be over matched in this game though. I'm really going to get into this...Andre Johnson would be a huge loss for the Texans though.
Baltimore at home off a bye and after losing 3 in a row -3.5 against the undefeated
Denver Broncos! Like Balty at -3. Denver also off a bye but traveling east.
Why bet against the Broncos..., if this line gets to -2.5 or so I might bite, but I'm not messing with a field goal spread for a field goal game no way.
And maybe Tenny at home off a bye can get their first win vs. Jax. Jax also off a bye.
I'm not betting on an 0-7 team period
You think GB/Minny goes over 47? Think its Close I have it at 27-20 Something Like that
GL
Answers are bolded.
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Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
Take a look at the Bills' stats the last 2 weeks. They got totally dominated by the jets and Panthers and they won both! Now they're back home but they are not very good on O. D is good though. Texans you never know which team shows up. Texans only -3. Fitzpatrick really helps the Bills out....I know he isn't a polished NFL QB but he gets first downs. They might be over matched in this game though. I'm really going to get into this...Andre Johnson would be a huge loss for the Texans though.
Baltimore at home off a bye and after losing 3 in a row -3.5 against the undefeated
Denver Broncos! Like Balty at -3. Denver also off a bye but traveling east.
Why bet against the Broncos..., if this line gets to -2.5 or so I might bite, but I'm not messing with a field goal spread for a field goal game no way.
And maybe Tenny at home off a bye can get their first win vs. Jax. Jax also off a bye.
I'm not betting on an 0-7 team period
You think GB/Minny goes over 47? Think its Close I have it at 27-20 Something Like that
This is true. Singletary is pretty good at lighting a fire underneath his players, but that will only get you so far. Colts just look impenetrable on the offensive side, so the Niners are gonna need Gore to chew up a lot of yards and time.
Now, I'm kind of thinking about a 7 pt. teaser. Let's see what you, and everyone reading this, thinks:
This is true. Singletary is pretty good at lighting a fire underneath his players, but that will only get you so far. Colts just look impenetrable on the offensive side, so the Niners are gonna need Gore to chew up a lot of yards and time.
Now, I'm kind of thinking about a 7 pt. teaser. Let's see what you, and everyone reading this, thinks:
Teams off two straight road SU wins as underdogs usually shit the bed the next week back at home especially as big favorites. Arizona is in that spot this week, but then again Carolina IS awful.
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Teams off two straight road SU wins as underdogs usually shit the bed the next week back at home especially as big favorites. Arizona is in that spot this week, but then again Carolina IS awful.
Teams off two straight road SU wins as underdogs usually shit the bed the next week back at home especially as big favorites. Arizona is in that spot this week, but then again Carolina IS awful.
Trends God I hate those things...I never consider them in anything. Heres why when you look at it no matter what your thinking is you go, Oh shit. You know what I mean. It really hurts me sometimes, so I never ever barely even look at those things. I don't know if I'm going to play Arizona that game scares me a bit. I'm thinking the Colts might be a sure play for me though.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Teams off two straight road SU wins as underdogs usually shit the bed the next week back at home especially as big favorites. Arizona is in that spot this week, but then again Carolina IS awful.
Trends God I hate those things...I never consider them in anything. Heres why when you look at it no matter what your thinking is you go, Oh shit. You know what I mean. It really hurts me sometimes, so I never ever barely even look at those things. I don't know if I'm going to play Arizona that game scares me a bit. I'm thinking the Colts might be a sure play for me though.
Teams off two straight road SU wins as underdogs usually shit the bed the next week back at home especially as big favorites. Arizona is in that spot this week, but then again Carolina IS awful.
Trends are really easy on the eyes...
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Teams off two straight road SU wins as underdogs usually shit the bed the next week back at home especially as big favorites. Arizona is in that spot this week, but then again Carolina IS awful.
Trends God I hate those things...I never consider them in anything. Heres why when you look at it no matter what your thinking is you go, Oh shit. You know what I mean. It really hurts me sometimes, so I never ever barely even look at those things. I don't know if I'm going to play Arizona that game scares me a bit. I'm thinking the Colts might be a sure play for me though.
I agree some trends are complete garbage but some aren't. I don't think this one is because it falls into a situational spot, it's not just a random trend. The spot is that a team played hard for two straight road games and got the win when they weren't supposed to. Now they come home to face a weaker team, it is a classic letdown spot.
Just throwing it out there but teams in this spot the last 5 years (home game after 2 SU road underdog wins) are 3-9 ATS with only 1 team covering as favs over -5.5. Of those 9 teams not to cover 5 have lost outright as favorites of -7.5, -9, -12, -7 and -12 and 3 more lost outright and failed to cover as dogs.
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Quote Originally Posted by Whodeysb09:
Trends God I hate those things...I never consider them in anything. Heres why when you look at it no matter what your thinking is you go, Oh shit. You know what I mean. It really hurts me sometimes, so I never ever barely even look at those things. I don't know if I'm going to play Arizona that game scares me a bit. I'm thinking the Colts might be a sure play for me though.
I agree some trends are complete garbage but some aren't. I don't think this one is because it falls into a situational spot, it's not just a random trend. The spot is that a team played hard for two straight road games and got the win when they weren't supposed to. Now they come home to face a weaker team, it is a classic letdown spot.
Just throwing it out there but teams in this spot the last 5 years (home game after 2 SU road underdog wins) are 3-9 ATS with only 1 team covering as favs over -5.5. Of those 9 teams not to cover 5 have lost outright as favorites of -7.5, -9, -12, -7 and -12 and 3 more lost outright and failed to cover as dogs.
I agree some trends are complete garbage but some aren't. I don't think this one is because it falls into a situational spot, it's not just a random trend. The spot is that a team played hard for two straight road games and got the win when they weren't supposed to. Now they come home to face a weaker team, it is a classic letdown spot.
Just throwing it out there but teams in this spot the last 5 years (home game after 2 SU road underdog wins) are 3-9 ATS with only 1 team covering as favs over -5.5. Of those 9 teams not to cover 5 have lost outright as favorites of -7.5, -9, -12, -7 and -12 and 3 more lost outright and failed to cover as dogs.
It is a classic let down spot...
Can you give me the teams for this...if you have it right off hand. Both teams that played...
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I agree some trends are complete garbage but some aren't. I don't think this one is because it falls into a situational spot, it's not just a random trend. The spot is that a team played hard for two straight road games and got the win when they weren't supposed to. Now they come home to face a weaker team, it is a classic letdown spot.
Just throwing it out there but teams in this spot the last 5 years (home game after 2 SU road underdog wins) are 3-9 ATS with only 1 team covering as favs over -5.5. Of those 9 teams not to cover 5 have lost outright as favorites of -7.5, -9, -12, -7 and -12 and 3 more lost outright and failed to cover as dogs.
It is a classic let down spot...
Can you give me the teams for this...if you have it right off hand. Both teams that played...
Minny gets points after GB beat up a couple losers.
Packers O line is horrible so Minnesota is a nightmare matchup in terms of pass rush.
Volatile game with all the history and hype but Minn +3 is still a bargain. I may roll with it too because it was chalk city this past week and I don't like a lot of dogs this week. Good call.
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Minny gets points after GB beat up a couple losers.
Packers O line is horrible so Minnesota is a nightmare matchup in terms of pass rush.
Volatile game with all the history and hype but Minn +3 is still a bargain. I may roll with it too because it was chalk city this past week and I don't like a lot of dogs this week. Good call.
Minny gets points after GB beat up a couple losers.
Packers O line is horrible so Minnesota is a nightmare matchup in terms of pass rush.
Volatile game with all the history and hype but Minn +3 is still a bargain. I may roll with it too because it was chalk city this past week and I don't like a lot of dogs this week. Good call.
You summed up a lot of my thinking...I think Minnesota should be laying 2.5 here and personally I would still fucking do it.
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Quote Originally Posted by SonicBlue:
Minny gets points after GB beat up a couple losers.
Packers O line is horrible so Minnesota is a nightmare matchup in terms of pass rush.
Volatile game with all the history and hype but Minn +3 is still a bargain. I may roll with it too because it was chalk city this past week and I don't like a lot of dogs this week. Good call.
You summed up a lot of my thinking...I think Minnesota should be laying 2.5 here and personally I would still fucking do it.
Looking at the lines week to week, I use the philosophy of 'take what the defense gives you.'
That being said, I assessed Week 8 as follows:
I remember that last year the underdogs covered nearly every double digit spread until the 2nd half of the season. This year features a scary number of hopeless teams who are getting covered no matter what the spread. This week a number of good teams and hot teams are playing at home against scrubs.
So despite some big spreads, the stronger teams are in a good position when you look at the matchups:
Cleveland @ Chicago: Cleveland's offense has a pulse but no breathing. Let's send them off to Soldier field against a Chicago defense that just got punked to the 10th power.
San Fran @ Indy: West coast team in back to back 1 o'clockers coming east; Colts have been jumping out early everytime, so San Fran's only hope with establishing Gore will likely be dashed midway through the first.
Seattle @ Dallas: Maybe the worst road team ever coming into Big D right after they got their mojo back.
Oakland @ San Diego: Oakland's track record @ SD is the thing nightmares are made of. Bad time to catch a fired up Chargers team.
Carolina @ AZ: #1 run defense at home against a team scared to death to pass.
Atlanta @ New Orleans: Atlanta is decent but they finished poorly at Dallas. Now they go to the homecoming game in New Orleans, who's playing superb on both sides of the ball.
So given these matchups and trends I do like some home faves to roll again this week. I'd hit the books early because all the lines will naturally run away from these home faves. I punched a 5 team ML parlay tonight because I can't imagine any one of those teams actually losing the game.
Also punched single tix on: Houston -3.5 (thanks to A. Smith & Delhomme) Indy -11.5 San Diego -16.5 Dallas -9.5 AZ -9
All of these teams are hot. When Dallas shows me 2 in a row we'll talk spreads. Hope this helps.
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Looking at the lines week to week, I use the philosophy of 'take what the defense gives you.'
That being said, I assessed Week 8 as follows:
I remember that last year the underdogs covered nearly every double digit spread until the 2nd half of the season. This year features a scary number of hopeless teams who are getting covered no matter what the spread. This week a number of good teams and hot teams are playing at home against scrubs.
So despite some big spreads, the stronger teams are in a good position when you look at the matchups:
Cleveland @ Chicago: Cleveland's offense has a pulse but no breathing. Let's send them off to Soldier field against a Chicago defense that just got punked to the 10th power.
San Fran @ Indy: West coast team in back to back 1 o'clockers coming east; Colts have been jumping out early everytime, so San Fran's only hope with establishing Gore will likely be dashed midway through the first.
Seattle @ Dallas: Maybe the worst road team ever coming into Big D right after they got their mojo back.
Oakland @ San Diego: Oakland's track record @ SD is the thing nightmares are made of. Bad time to catch a fired up Chargers team.
Carolina @ AZ: #1 run defense at home against a team scared to death to pass.
Atlanta @ New Orleans: Atlanta is decent but they finished poorly at Dallas. Now they go to the homecoming game in New Orleans, who's playing superb on both sides of the ball.
So given these matchups and trends I do like some home faves to roll again this week. I'd hit the books early because all the lines will naturally run away from these home faves. I punched a 5 team ML parlay tonight because I can't imagine any one of those teams actually losing the game.
Also punched single tix on: Houston -3.5 (thanks to A. Smith & Delhomme) Indy -11.5 San Diego -16.5 Dallas -9.5 AZ -9
All of these teams are hot. When Dallas shows me 2 in a row we'll talk spreads. Hope this helps.
The only team I hate betting on more than Dallas is Oakland... but at least you can relish in their status as 'worst franchise in the history of sport in culture.'
I've actually had a 'Final Destination' fantasy of that ridonkulous scoreboard coming unhinged on one side and swinging directly into Jerry Jones' luxury box. That's how much I hate Dallas.
Still, is
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The only team I hate betting on more than Dallas is Oakland... but at least you can relish in their status as 'worst franchise in the history of sport in culture.'
I've actually had a 'Final Destination' fantasy of that ridonkulous scoreboard coming unhinged on one side and swinging directly into Jerry Jones' luxury box. That's how much I hate Dallas.
The only team I hate betting on more than Dallas is Oakland... but at least you can relish in their status as 'worst franchise in the history of sport in culture.'
I've actually had a 'Final Destination' fantasy of that ridonkulous scoreboard coming unhinged on one side and swinging directly into Jerry Jones' luxury box. That's how much I hate Dallas.
Still, is
That literally made me laugh out loud. Funny shit. Damn I do hate Dallas but I think its probably going to be my next wager
And your right Money is money
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Quote Originally Posted by SonicBlue:
The only team I hate betting on more than Dallas is Oakland... but at least you can relish in their status as 'worst franchise in the history of sport in culture.'
I've actually had a 'Final Destination' fantasy of that ridonkulous scoreboard coming unhinged on one side and swinging directly into Jerry Jones' luxury box. That's how much I hate Dallas.
Still, is
That literally made me laugh out loud. Funny shit. Damn I do hate Dallas but I think its probably going to be my next wager
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God I hate those things...I never consider them in anything. Heres why when you look at it no matter what your thinking is you go, Oh shit. You know what I mean. It really hurts me sometimes, so I never ever barely even look at those things. I don't know if I'm going to play Arizona that game scares me a bit. I'm thinking the Colts might be a sure play for me though. 
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