Week 4 with writeups : 10-5 last week

10-5 last week
16-14 ytd
+ $60

Really had a great week in week 3, going 10-5 and picking up 4.5 units.  Will continue this week.

Lions +1 @ Cowboys.  Lions are playing every single game this year like they have something to prove.  The Cowboys are playing every game like they it's the first time they've ever seen the playbook.  The Cowboys offense is not clicking, and if you watched last night, it seems like only a couple of players actually know where they're supposed to be on offense.  The defense is solid, but the secondary is still bad.  Grossman couldn't quite carve them up - Stafford will.  This will be my first 3 unit play of the year.

Bears -6.5 vs Panthers.  Sweet, I love it when the public goes crazy and overvalues bad teams because they're the sexy play right now.  It's going to be a long long day for Cam Newton, but that's not why I love the Bears here.  The Bears will not go 1-3 at the hands of Cam Newton.  It will not happen.  They will play this game like their hair is on fire.  Playing this game for 2 units.

Jags +7 vs Saints.  Nailed my two favorite "fade the market" plays last week playing the Vikings and Seahawks.  This is a similar situation.  Expect the Saints in a let down spot after a thriller against the Texans, and the Jags to bring a solid run game at the Saints.    (Note: This is why I have found consistent success with my betting portfolio over the past few years - playing these games will not always result in a winner, but you will win this game enough to grind out a solid profit over the long run.)  1 unit.

Titans +1 @ Browns.  I hate this game, I truly do.  However, I expect Chris Johnson to have a big day against a lackluster Browns Rush D.  And, quite frankly, I cannot see the Browns going 3-1.  1 unit.

Bills -3 @ Bengals.  This would normally fit a fade the market play, but the Bengals are do not fit my model here.  In fact, I think the Bengals have been overvalued in this spot, and it is due to their performance against 3 of the worst teams in football.  They have yet to play an above average team.  This tells me that they shouldn't only be 3 point dogs against an undefeated team.  1 unit. 

Vikings -1 @ Chiefs.  Again, the Vikings aren't THAT bad.  I cannot figure out why they get blown out in second halves, but dominate in first halves.  On the other hand, the Chiefs are just miserable and I will not be backing a team who cannot score, period.  1 unit.

Rams -1 vs Skins.  Super Bowl for the Rams.  They still know they can win the NFC West, but it starts with this game.   They have a bye week next week, and that injury list is slowly getting shorter.  Market hot on the Skins right now, everyone bailing on the Rams - great time to buy on the Rams.  1 unit.

Texans -4 vs Steelers.  I have a theory on the Steelers; I think they struggle indoors against fast/good passing teams.  My theory is non-conclusive, but if I had more time to research beyond the top-of-my-head losses to the Saints in New Orleans last year, and getting carved up by the Packers at the Cowboys house, and most recently struggling against the lowly Colts on Sunday night, I would like to know how this team historically does indoors.  I think they are more built for outdoor, smashmouth football, and they have been for years.  1 unit.

Seahawks +4.5 vs Falcons.  Again, fading the squares who will be all over Atlanta.  The Hawks play well at home, and they're defense is good enough to keep this from getting beyond reach.  Plus, I'm convinced the Falcons will be 8-8 this year and struggle miserably away from home.  1 unit.

Cardinals +1 vs Giants.  Love it.  Just love it.  Another team coming off an "impressive" win against a division rival is now laying points the next week on their second road game in a row. Well, here's the truth about the Giants:  they're not that good.  They lost by 14 in the first week against the Redskins.  Wow.  Then they come home on Monday night, get outplayed by the Rams, only to get a couple of flukey plays go their way and win the game and cover.  Then, they take Vick out of the game and get to face Mike Kafka for all the marbles.  Give me a break - reality check coming for this team.  2 unit play here.

Broncos +13 @ Packers.  Cringing here, but I really don't think the Packers play good enough defense to lay 13 right now.  Another way to look at it, Denver scores 20 a game, the Packers give up 24 a game.  Pretty much banking on the Packers not going crazy for like 35+ here.  1 unit.

Patriots -4 @ Raiders.  Fade the sexy pick of the week: Raiders.  Everyone loves the Raiders right now, and they do look pretty damn good.  However, they don't defend the pass well enough to slow Brady down, and they don't pass the ball well enough to keep up with Brady.  Plain and simple.  1 unit.

Chargers -7.5 vs Dolphins.   Two teams I haven't figured out this season.  I'm straight 50/50 on this game, as my numbers had it at exactly 7.5.  Therefore, I'm going with the team playing back to back home games against a team on it's second road game across the country.  Plus, one of these games Rivers is going to explode - why not against one of the worst pass d's in the league?  1 unit.

Buccs -10 vs Colts.  Look at all the love for Indy all of a sudden.  They show up and play well for one half of football against a completely depleted offensive line, and now everyone is on their bandwagon this week to cover.  Here's what I know: The Colts lost their only road game this year by 27.  They're scoring 15 a game, and giving up 28.  The Buccs should be buzzing all over for a big monday night game where they can beat up on Collins or Painter or whoever plays QB not named Manning.  2 unit play on MNF.

shrimp

A lot of good stuff here.  Thanks for your input. 

Go Lions................

So what games are your other aliases playing?

There were a couple in there that I'm iffy about , but I like a lot of your leans/plays!  BOL in week 4!!

skipster

primetime

drivetime

kapono   save your negativity for other threads.  i work too hard at what i do to waste time with people like you.

Good Luck Smash Book...

On the Atlanta Game do you think they are going to lose? I understand the thought process of seattle playing well at home and an east coast team traveling across the country...but I just can't put money behind Tjackson and the woeful Seahawks with an angry Falcons team coming in town.  I was just curious on your further thoughts on that particular game?  I think I will play ATL and the spread...and most likely do an even money teaser having N.O. and ATL winning...a NFC South teaser if you will

BOL

NSFL


I do no think Atlanta is going to lose.  And I know that Atlanta is the better team.  But,

- Seattle plays well at home
- Atlanta does not play well away from home
- Atlanta should be 0-3, but they lucked out against the Eagles (no arguments here, please - the Eagles should have won that game)
- Seattle does struggle on offense, but Atlanta struggles on defense as well
- I do not think Atlanta has a team right now that can go on the road and blow teams out.  Not with that offensive line.  Not with that offensive line against a solid defense.

I would be careful playing to road favorites in a teaser.  There are much better teaser spots, like the Bears or Buccs.

d-town

Best of Luck

some good stuff.  I think you play way too many games for your own good but if you are in it to have fun there's nothing wrong w/ that I just can't see it being profitable over the long haul.  As far as your plays i'm on your side with every play but the Jags, Titans, Bills and Viks leaning opposite.  BOL

I love the short writeups...Good info...Bills game scares me..Vegas has to know 75-80% will be on Buffelo...Looks to easy to take the Bills....Pitt is a hard team to analize....Like the plays!!!

 

good writeups...I wish you luck this week!

freak

rutger

splooge

chris

safety

k4ngur

I think playing "too many" games is relative.  For instance, over the course of the year you will wager on far more than 15 or 16 games, and over your sports betting career you will be well into the thousands, I'd assume. 

I agree that it (probably) wouldn't be profitable to bet the board if you only play dogs, or you only play favorites, or you're a contrarian bettor, or you always fade the public.  However, I mix my weekly betting portfolio in the NFL with fades, contrarian plays, and square plays, all based on my research, numbers, statistical variances, and market analysis. 

By mixing in huge public plays (the Bills this week), solid public fades (Seahawks playing a Falcon team that will hang bettors all season long), and finding small edges in 50/50 games (fading Steelers indoors, or fading historical public faves anytime they are a dog), I anticipate diversifying my plays enough to find success from week to week. 


Anyway, I knew this would come up at some point so I just wanted to explain my strategy and reasoning.  Best of luck this year and I look forward to discussing our plays on a weekly basis. 

**Adding last play**

Eagles -9 vs 49ers.  An absolute must win game here for the Eagles.  The 49ers are decent, and they can play solid defense, but I just don't see them scoring enough to keep up with Vick today.  This is one of those games where everyone is down on the hyped team then they go and blowout a crappy team at home.  I tried thinking of a number where I wouldn't take the Eagles, and I bid myself all the way up to 14.  Eagles for 1 unit.

6-7 so far today.  A few notes:

- This should have been a huge day for me.  Can't believe I get a little luck and grab my biggest play of the year on the Lions to give 2 units back to another garbage time touchdown by Cam Newton.  Maybe I will never understand this, but if you're down two scores like the Panthers were, why aren't you kicking a fg AS SOON AS YOU GET IN FG RANGE to maximize your opportunity to get an onside kick and score?  Instead, they score with 5 seconds left and blow my cover.  Woohoo.

- Saints gave the Jags every opportunity to cover, but they come up short.  Not sure why MJD was not touching the football early, would have been nice to know before gametime.

- Arizona loses on one of the worst calls of the year.  YouTube it if you haven't seen it.

**Sunday Night Play**

Ravens -5 vs Jets.  Jets are a mess right now.  Ravens, in my opinion, are the best team in the league.  I will completely dismiss the loss to the Titans, as the Titans are a LOT better than they get credit for this year.  Ravens have too many weapons on offense, and I look for Flacco to outplay Sanchez tonight in Balty.  Line has moved to the oddball 5, which I think begs Jets backers to the window. Ravens 2 units.