true and n.o. still hasn't impressed me that much but who knows when they will turn it on. their special teams hit a bump losing bush so maybe they can't get it up over 18. liking the other three more but can't help but think atl can cover 17.5 against n.o. either
What has been ATL's history against NO in the Ryan era?
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Quote Originally Posted by philschnaars:
true and n.o. still hasn't impressed me that much but who knows when they will turn it on. their special teams hit a bump losing bush so maybe they can't get it up over 18. liking the other three more but can't help but think atl can cover 17.5 against n.o. either
What has been ATL's history against NO in the Ryan era?
ok i'll try to find a 4th after work tonight, but those three looked good to me so far, PIT, NE, BAL, ? i understand you're doing a math reasoning for the 13pts 4 teamers but i think the 10pter 3 teamer is the way to go with this set up for this week. i will probably only play that but i'll still let you know if i can find a 4th for you
I agree with 3 team 10 pointer, might ride you if the numbers are right...
and for everyone out there... 3 team 10 point teaser: -110 odds...
anything less then that and you are giving away money...
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Quote Originally Posted by philschnaars:
ok i'll try to find a 4th after work tonight, but those three looked good to me so far, PIT, NE, BAL, ? i understand you're doing a math reasoning for the 13pts 4 teamers but i think the 10pter 3 teamer is the way to go with this set up for this week. i will probably only play that but i'll still let you know if i can find a 4th for you
I agree with 3 team 10 pointer, might ride you if the numbers are right...
and for everyone out there... 3 team 10 point teaser: -110 odds...
anything less then that and you are giving away money...
Yeah I am always little timid about landing on a -3 or +3 but I mean its N.E at home VS Buffalo. Buffalo is starting a new QB here and I think NE will come out firing. they must be pissed about that bitch slap they took in NY.
I read some where that 25% of all NFL game in exactly a difference of 3 points... 3 and 7 are the key numbers anything else is less common
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Quote Originally Posted by Maydaymalone:
Yeah I am always little timid about landing on a -3 or +3 but I mean its N.E at home VS Buffalo. Buffalo is starting a new QB here and I think NE will come out firing. they must be pissed about that bitch slap they took in NY.
I read some where that 25% of all NFL game in exactly a difference of 3 points... 3 and 7 are the key numbers anything else is less common
KC fits the model of a lower scoring game and getting value on the +13 points ATS... You are getting decent number at 16 against a SF offense that will likely score less then 30 points... which means that if KC can break 14 points you should be in good shape...
SF's defense could give KC problems on offense, but hat may not matter if it stays a close game... what worries me is that KC's passing offense is not able to produce to stay in the game if they go down say 21-3 at the half... If KC cannot pass the ball if they go down then the SF defense might eat them up on turnovers and field position which plays right into their power running game...
SF is 1-7 in their last 8 games on the road and only win was the last game of the season last year against STL where they scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to win 28-6... so this might be a nice play based on history...but a 28-6 game is the possibility I fear where KC cannot get back into the game...
This is a play for me...
So this is on my radar
NE -1 BAL +2.5 KC +16 PIT +10?
anymore ideas or suggestions?
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Quote Originally Posted by XhuegoX:
take a look at chiefs +16
KC fits the model of a lower scoring game and getting value on the +13 points ATS... You are getting decent number at 16 against a SF offense that will likely score less then 30 points... which means that if KC can break 14 points you should be in good shape...
SF's defense could give KC problems on offense, but hat may not matter if it stays a close game... what worries me is that KC's passing offense is not able to produce to stay in the game if they go down say 21-3 at the half... If KC cannot pass the ball if they go down then the SF defense might eat them up on turnovers and field position which plays right into their power running game...
SF is 1-7 in their last 8 games on the road and only win was the last game of the season last year against STL where they scored 21 points in the 4th quarter to win 28-6... so this might be a nice play based on history...but a 28-6 game is the possibility I fear where KC cannot get back into the game...
what's up....I am thinking about laying a 3 team 10 point teaser and so far here is what I'm thinking...
not to be a jets homer but Jets +12 sounds really good because this will be a tight divisional game regardless of which way it swings and I think Jets D keeps Miami to 14 or under
I also like Houston +7 but I dont really know about this one because I have been on Houston past two weeks as I really like this squad but am kind of scared to take them again....however +7 at home isnt bad at all as they will be coming out hard and I also feel like this will be a close one....
NE also sounds good -3, I'm too scared to touch pitt without a qb, but mayb balt?
what do you think
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what's up....I am thinking about laying a 3 team 10 point teaser and so far here is what I'm thinking...
not to be a jets homer but Jets +12 sounds really good because this will be a tight divisional game regardless of which way it swings and I think Jets D keeps Miami to 14 or under
I also like Houston +7 but I dont really know about this one because I have been on Houston past two weeks as I really like this squad but am kind of scared to take them again....however +7 at home isnt bad at all as they will be coming out hard and I also feel like this will be a close one....
NE also sounds good -3, I'm too scared to touch pitt without a qb, but mayb balt?
Ok you were a bit rude in my thread but I will still try and help out.
1.Motivation Edge....( do or die thia game) 2.Matchups (Minnesota good run defense vs best) 3.Homefield 4.Bounceback 5.Who are people doubting? Minnesota 6.letdown(detroit after 2 close losses and emotion ally draining endings to games) 7.Better team Overall (Minnesota) 8.Fade the Public(public all over detroit this game plus the points) 9.Line Value (They should cover -10 so Ml is great value)
9 out of 11....95% to win id say.
Minnesota ml is pretty much a lock and will be a play for me maybe even -10.5.
thanks for your contribution...
I may not agree with your method as I view emotion and what the game means to an outside observer as meaning little or nothing as every individual on the team experiences and manages emotion differently... teams are not a single feeling entity...
Tell me more about Best and the run match up tho... Best had a huge day and he might not have as huge of a day, but he proved that he is factor...
I view his strengths as being speed and change of direction, which may or may not play in the strengths of the MIN run defense... toughness to stop the run and speed to track down a fast elusive play are different things...
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Quote Originally Posted by JulioFrazao:
Ok you were a bit rude in my thread but I will still try and help out.
1.Motivation Edge....( do or die thia game) 2.Matchups (Minnesota good run defense vs best) 3.Homefield 4.Bounceback 5.Who are people doubting? Minnesota 6.letdown(detroit after 2 close losses and emotion ally draining endings to games) 7.Better team Overall (Minnesota) 8.Fade the Public(public all over detroit this game plus the points) 9.Line Value (They should cover -10 so Ml is great value)
9 out of 11....95% to win id say.
Minnesota ml is pretty much a lock and will be a play for me maybe even -10.5.
thanks for your contribution...
I may not agree with your method as I view emotion and what the game means to an outside observer as meaning little or nothing as every individual on the team experiences and manages emotion differently... teams are not a single feeling entity...
Tell me more about Best and the run match up tho... Best had a huge day and he might not have as huge of a day, but he proved that he is factor...
I view his strengths as being speed and change of direction, which may or may not play in the strengths of the MIN run defense... toughness to stop the run and speed to track down a fast elusive play are different things...
Can you see the Lions beating the Vikings in Minnesota when the Vikes need this game. It's a must win or forget about the playoffs game for them. Best will not run on Minnesota's defense.
I dont like making predictions based on what I can "see happening"... Like I did not see Kolb getting a concussion and beign out as the starter in week 2, but it did happen...
"Must win" especially around playoffs is a hugely overrated factor... I dont that team suddenly become better because of the "must win factor"...
MIN limiting Best is a good theory, but with NO and MIN, we have not seen MIN match up against a speed RB except for maybe Reggie Bush.... Thomas, Brown, Williams are not speed RBs...
Against the MIN defense Bush average 7 yards per a carry and caught 5 passes for 33 yards... I know Bush is not their primary RB like Best, but these were the numbers...
MIN run defense looked tired at time against MIA, so I actually "could see" Best having some success... If you watched the game, you would see that MIA could have easily beaten MIN by double digits had it not been for a few badly timed fumbles... This game was not as close as the scoreboard said it was...
The real issue in this game is the ability of MIN to stay in the game if they are down and I think they will do much better against the DET passing defense...
MIN beat DET in both their meetings last year 27-13 and 27-10...
In their last 5 games, MIN is 5-0 SU against DET, but I do not account for this with farve being QB, so I only look at the last 2 years...
MIN is 9-1 in its last 10 games at home, but 0-1 this season with a loss to MIA...
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Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:
Can you see the Lions beating the Vikings in Minnesota when the Vikes need this game. It's a must win or forget about the playoffs game for them. Best will not run on Minnesota's defense.
I dont like making predictions based on what I can "see happening"... Like I did not see Kolb getting a concussion and beign out as the starter in week 2, but it did happen...
"Must win" especially around playoffs is a hugely overrated factor... I dont that team suddenly become better because of the "must win factor"...
MIN limiting Best is a good theory, but with NO and MIN, we have not seen MIN match up against a speed RB except for maybe Reggie Bush.... Thomas, Brown, Williams are not speed RBs...
Against the MIN defense Bush average 7 yards per a carry and caught 5 passes for 33 yards... I know Bush is not their primary RB like Best, but these were the numbers...
MIN run defense looked tired at time against MIA, so I actually "could see" Best having some success... If you watched the game, you would see that MIA could have easily beaten MIN by double digits had it not been for a few badly timed fumbles... This game was not as close as the scoreboard said it was...
The real issue in this game is the ability of MIN to stay in the game if they are down and I think they will do much better against the DET passing defense...
MIN beat DET in both their meetings last year 27-13 and 27-10...
In their last 5 games, MIN is 5-0 SU against DET, but I do not account for this with farve being QB, so I only look at the last 2 years...
MIN is 9-1 in its last 10 games at home, but 0-1 this season with a loss to MIA...
since you are a more respected member, I will address you with more respect...
but can you tell me exactly what you see in terms of match ups... I think DET has shown some vulnerability against the pass, but how do think they will do against ADP and run attack?
MIN defense has held teams to lower scoring and if they were getting more then a TD then I would feel like there is enough cushion, but this is basically a money line bet...
Lions defense has given up alot of big plays in just 2 games. Whether it maybe Peterson or Harvin, I see AT LEAST 3 plays of 35 yards or more. QB matchup is all you need to look at. Shaun Hill vs Brett Favre. Well as bad as Favre played in week 2 he is still better than Hill and the Lions defense will make him look better. Other teams to consider for your teaser is Jets and Washington. Dolphins/Jets always play each other tight and if you get the Jets at 13.5 thats a bargain. Washington at 9.5 vs St Louis is a gimme as far as I'm concerned. GL to you I'm sure you'll pick the correct teams!!
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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
since you are a more respected member, I will address you with more respect...
but can you tell me exactly what you see in terms of match ups... I think DET has shown some vulnerability against the pass, but how do think they will do against ADP and run attack?
MIN defense has held teams to lower scoring and if they were getting more then a TD then I would feel like there is enough cushion, but this is basically a money line bet...
Lions defense has given up alot of big plays in just 2 games. Whether it maybe Peterson or Harvin, I see AT LEAST 3 plays of 35 yards or more. QB matchup is all you need to look at. Shaun Hill vs Brett Favre. Well as bad as Favre played in week 2 he is still better than Hill and the Lions defense will make him look better. Other teams to consider for your teaser is Jets and Washington. Dolphins/Jets always play each other tight and if you get the Jets at 13.5 thats a bargain. Washington at 9.5 vs St Louis is a gimme as far as I'm concerned. GL to you I'm sure you'll pick the correct teams!!
need to do a little better than that please. jahvid best looked sick against philly and minnesota has looked weak back to back weeks, albeit vs two 2-0 teams. safer 13pt teasers out there imho
dont know what they are but safer and better use of number... not saying I wont play it tho, but theorhetically you are correct
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Quote Originally Posted by philschnaars:
need to do a little better than that please. jahvid best looked sick against philly and minnesota has looked weak back to back weeks, albeit vs two 2-0 teams. safer 13pt teasers out there imho
dont know what they are but safer and better use of number... not saying I wont play it tho, but theorhetically you are correct
what's up....I am thinking about laying a 3 team 10 point teaser and so far here is what I'm thinking...
not to be a jets homer but Jets +12 sounds really good because this will be a tight divisional game regardless of which way it swings and I think Jets D keeps Miami to 14 or under
I also like Houston +7 but I dont really know about this one because I have been on Houston past two weeks as I really like this squad but am kind of scared to take them again....however +7 at home isnt bad at all as they will be coming out hard and I also feel like this will be a close one....
horrible numbers dude... 3 and 7 are your main that yo gotta stay off of...
I mean people go for the 10.5, 14.5 or 17.5 lines, but 3 and 7 are key numbers...
your picks maybe correct but theoretically hitting 7 and 3 is abd in teasers where you advantage is manipulation of numbers...
NE also sounds good -3, I'm too scared to touch pitt without a qb, but mayb balt?
what do you think
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Quote Originally Posted by ManhattanKing:
what's up....I am thinking about laying a 3 team 10 point teaser and so far here is what I'm thinking...
not to be a jets homer but Jets +12 sounds really good because this will be a tight divisional game regardless of which way it swings and I think Jets D keeps Miami to 14 or under
I also like Houston +7 but I dont really know about this one because I have been on Houston past two weeks as I really like this squad but am kind of scared to take them again....however +7 at home isnt bad at all as they will be coming out hard and I also feel like this will be a close one....
horrible numbers dude... 3 and 7 are your main that yo gotta stay off of...
I mean people go for the 10.5, 14.5 or 17.5 lines, but 3 and 7 are key numbers...
your picks maybe correct but theoretically hitting 7 and 3 is abd in teasers where you advantage is manipulation of numbers...
NE also sounds good -3, I'm too scared to touch pitt without a qb, but mayb balt?
Lions defense has given up alot of big plays in just 2 games. Whether it maybe Peterson or Harvin, I see AT LEAST 3 plays of 35 yards or more. QB matchup is all you need to look at. Shaun Hill vs Brett Favre. Well as bad as Favre played in week 2 he is still better than Hill and the Lions defense will make him look better. Other teams to consider for your teaser is Jets and Washington. Dolphins/Jets always play each other tight and if you get the Jets at 13.5 thats a bargain. Washington at 9.5 vs St Louis is a gimme as far as I'm concerned. GL to you I'm sure you'll pick the correct teams!!
I like the big play angle with MIN vs DET, did no consider that...
I dont like NYJ vs MIA because this has a history of being a higher scoring affair... the 13 or 12 points may not get as much as you think if you are assuming that this is a low scoring affair...
WAS +9 think that WAS has looked good so far in the Mcnabb/shannahan era, but we see two things happen with this team that we have never seen before...
being on the road being a favorite
and this is the deadly combo of of a mid-level team being a road favorite... some teams play down to their competition and HOU and DAL have been high flying teams that have given WAS a good game... I might sit this one out mainly becasue I think you might be safer with STL +17 as their opponents have averaged 16.5 points a game against them...
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Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:
Lions defense has given up alot of big plays in just 2 games. Whether it maybe Peterson or Harvin, I see AT LEAST 3 plays of 35 yards or more. QB matchup is all you need to look at. Shaun Hill vs Brett Favre. Well as bad as Favre played in week 2 he is still better than Hill and the Lions defense will make him look better. Other teams to consider for your teaser is Jets and Washington. Dolphins/Jets always play each other tight and if you get the Jets at 13.5 thats a bargain. Washington at 9.5 vs St Louis is a gimme as far as I'm concerned. GL to you I'm sure you'll pick the correct teams!!
I like the big play angle with MIN vs DET, did no consider that...
I dont like NYJ vs MIA because this has a history of being a higher scoring affair... the 13 or 12 points may not get as much as you think if you are assuming that this is a low scoring affair...
WAS +9 think that WAS has looked good so far in the Mcnabb/shannahan era, but we see two things happen with this team that we have never seen before...
being on the road being a favorite
and this is the deadly combo of of a mid-level team being a road favorite... some teams play down to their competition and HOU and DAL have been high flying teams that have given WAS a good game... I might sit this one out mainly becasue I think you might be safer with STL +17 as their opponents have averaged 16.5 points a game against them...
yeah good point there with the numbers never really been into teasers until trying them out now....that being said I may just stick to ncaaf for this week and maybe make some small plays on nfl but next week looks good see you then
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yeah good point there with the numbers never really been into teasers until trying them out now....that being said I may just stick to ncaaf for this week and maybe make some small plays on nfl but next week looks good see you then
yeah good point there with the numbers never really been into teasers until trying them out now....that being said I may just stick to ncaaf for this week and maybe make some small plays on nfl but next week looks good see you then
I personally am not looking at playing a 2 unit teaser and decreasing t 1 unit because this week just does not look as good..
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Quote Originally Posted by ManhattanKing:
yeah good point there with the numbers never really been into teasers until trying them out now....that being said I may just stick to ncaaf for this week and maybe make some small plays on nfl but next week looks good see you then
I personally am not looking at playing a 2 unit teaser and decreasing t 1 unit because this week just does not look as good..
if you need a 4th the ones i like would be in no particular order
phil +10.5 @ jax = jacksonville is a terrible team and vick is starting again. he is getting more comfortable and wants to keep the job so i look for him to run wild on jax and limit the mistakes again. jax did beat denver at home but only by a td not by more than a td and a fg. think even if philly somehow loses this game they can cover 10.5.
ind +7.5 @ den = peyton manning most likely won't lose to denver by a td. however they did lose to houston (who was def up for the game) by 10pts. can't really play any angle on the death of their wr as i can see denver coming out sluggish with that on their minds, or they might come out wanting to win (even more than every team wants to win) because of it. i still think if champ is out then indy can throw all over denver and i like getting more than a td, although mile high is a tough place to play
nyj +14 @ mia = seriously no homerism here. just think if either team had a chance to beat the other by two tds its actually the jets. if they hold miami to 23 or less then it only takes a td and a field goal or three fgs to cover (if u can get it at 14.5) if you can't get the 14.5 i still like their chances to cover but if some crazy thing happens like a late td to miami on a turnover or because they gave up on the game it'd suck to not have that extra cushion.
atl +17 @ no matt ryan lost both games at new orleans that he has played in. however one was by 8pts and the other by 4pts. drew brees is capable of throwing for tons of scores against almost anyone at any time but being without bush will be painful. also gore rushed all over new orleans and i look for turner to do the same thus limiting brees' chances to burn them. think 17 is too much for even new orleans to cover this week
sf +16 @ kc this game almost goes both ways. i don't see sf going on the road and blowing out kc by 10 or more but i also think sf losing by 16 is less reasonable. sf has a quality defense and showed they can go out and play against softer defenses like new orleans. i'm not sold on kc's defense just yet as they gave up two tds to both cleveland and san diego (in sd's notoriously slow first game of the year). this means if sf can score two tds and get to 14 (likely) then as long as KC doesn't run over 29pts you will hit this. do you really see kc putting a 30spot up on sf?
hope these help you dl and i'll check in daily still to see if anything else develops but for now i'm staying with my 10pt 3 teamer
Freedom road was a one-way street
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ok i'll run them down for you again
loving bal +2.5 vs cle
pit +12 @ tb
ne -1 vs buf
if you need a 4th the ones i like would be in no particular order
phil +10.5 @ jax = jacksonville is a terrible team and vick is starting again. he is getting more comfortable and wants to keep the job so i look for him to run wild on jax and limit the mistakes again. jax did beat denver at home but only by a td not by more than a td and a fg. think even if philly somehow loses this game they can cover 10.5.
ind +7.5 @ den = peyton manning most likely won't lose to denver by a td. however they did lose to houston (who was def up for the game) by 10pts. can't really play any angle on the death of their wr as i can see denver coming out sluggish with that on their minds, or they might come out wanting to win (even more than every team wants to win) because of it. i still think if champ is out then indy can throw all over denver and i like getting more than a td, although mile high is a tough place to play
nyj +14 @ mia = seriously no homerism here. just think if either team had a chance to beat the other by two tds its actually the jets. if they hold miami to 23 or less then it only takes a td and a field goal or three fgs to cover (if u can get it at 14.5) if you can't get the 14.5 i still like their chances to cover but if some crazy thing happens like a late td to miami on a turnover or because they gave up on the game it'd suck to not have that extra cushion.
atl +17 @ no matt ryan lost both games at new orleans that he has played in. however one was by 8pts and the other by 4pts. drew brees is capable of throwing for tons of scores against almost anyone at any time but being without bush will be painful. also gore rushed all over new orleans and i look for turner to do the same thus limiting brees' chances to burn them. think 17 is too much for even new orleans to cover this week
sf +16 @ kc this game almost goes both ways. i don't see sf going on the road and blowing out kc by 10 or more but i also think sf losing by 16 is less reasonable. sf has a quality defense and showed they can go out and play against softer defenses like new orleans. i'm not sold on kc's defense just yet as they gave up two tds to both cleveland and san diego (in sd's notoriously slow first game of the year). this means if sf can score two tds and get to 14 (likely) then as long as KC doesn't run over 29pts you will hit this. do you really see kc putting a 30spot up on sf?
hope these help you dl and i'll check in daily still to see if anything else develops but for now i'm staying with my 10pt 3 teamer
steelers/bucs over 20? that is a ridiculous line- how would the score not end up being atleast 12-10? Thats a worst case scenario where both teams do nothing but punt the whole game and just manage a few fg's here and there. I will actually guess this game will be more like 17-13 imo
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steelers/bucs over 20? that is a ridiculous line- how would the score not end up being atleast 12-10? Thats a worst case scenario where both teams do nothing but punt the whole game and just manage a few fg's here and there. I will actually guess this game will be more like 17-13 imo
I think if you are going NYJ you should be getting +14.5...
I am not sure about HOU, what is you thinking on this game?
This is the battle of Texas, and I trust Houston getting 10 way more than I trust Dallas getting 16, or 20 for arguments sake. I see Dallas winning by little, or Houston crushing Dallas...this team is in trouble, and Houston is on a mission.
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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
I think if you are going NYJ you should be getting +14.5...
I am not sure about HOU, what is you thinking on this game?
This is the battle of Texas, and I trust Houston getting 10 way more than I trust Dallas getting 16, or 20 for arguments sake. I see Dallas winning by little, or Houston crushing Dallas...this team is in trouble, and Houston is on a mission.
if you need a 4th the ones i like would be in no particular order
phil +10.5 @ jax = jacksonville is a terrible team and vick is starting again. he is getting more comfortable and wants to keep the job so i look for him to run wild on jax and limit the mistakes again. jax did beat denver at home but only by a td not by more than a td and a fg. think even if philly somehow loses this game they can cover 10.5.
ind +7.5 @ den = peyton manning most likely won't lose to denver by a td. however they did lose to houston (who was def up for the game) by 10pts. can't really play any angle on the death of their wr as i can see denver coming out sluggish with that on their minds, or they might come out wanting to win (even more than every team wants to win) because of it. i still think if champ is out then indy can throw all over denver and i like getting more than a td, although mile high is a tough place to play
nyj +14 @ mia = seriously no homerism here. just think if either team had a chance to beat the other by two tds its actually the jets. if they hold miami to 23 or less then it only takes a td and a field goal or three fgs to cover (if u can get it at 14.5) if you can't get the 14.5 i still like their chances to cover but if some crazy thing happens like a late td to miami on a turnover or because they gave up on the game it'd suck to not have that extra cushion.
atl +17 @ no matt ryan lost both games at new orleans that he has played in. however one was by 8pts and the other by 4pts. drew brees is capable of throwing for tons of scores against almost anyone at any time but being without bush will be painful. also gore rushed all over new orleans and i look for turner to do the same thus limiting brees' chances to burn them. think 17 is too much for even new orleans to cover this week
sf +16 @ kc this game almost goes both ways. i don't see sf going on the road and blowing out kc by 10 or more but i also think sf losing by 16 is less reasonable. sf has a quality defense and showed they can go out and play against softer defenses like new orleans. i'm not sold on kc's defense just yet as they gave up two tds to both cleveland and san diego (in sd's notoriously slow first game of the year). this means if sf can score two tds and get to 14 (likely) then as long as KC doesn't run over 29pts you will hit this. do you really see kc putting a 30spot up on sf?
hope these help you dl and i'll check in daily still to see if anything else develops but for now i'm staying with my 10pt 3 teamer
I am loving the PIT call more and more with TB having some key "injuries"...
First off they are missing their safety due to substance abuse policy... So they are going to start a rookie...
And they are likely missing their center and even if he plays he will not be 100%...
thank you for all the suggestions...
All road teams tho...
and I dont have as good numbers as you on a few of them...
can you post your 3 teamer too?
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Quote Originally Posted by philschnaars:
ok i'll run them down for you again
loving bal +2.5 vs cle
pit +12 @ tb
ne -1 vs buf
if you need a 4th the ones i like would be in no particular order
phil +10.5 @ jax = jacksonville is a terrible team and vick is starting again. he is getting more comfortable and wants to keep the job so i look for him to run wild on jax and limit the mistakes again. jax did beat denver at home but only by a td not by more than a td and a fg. think even if philly somehow loses this game they can cover 10.5.
ind +7.5 @ den = peyton manning most likely won't lose to denver by a td. however they did lose to houston (who was def up for the game) by 10pts. can't really play any angle on the death of their wr as i can see denver coming out sluggish with that on their minds, or they might come out wanting to win (even more than every team wants to win) because of it. i still think if champ is out then indy can throw all over denver and i like getting more than a td, although mile high is a tough place to play
nyj +14 @ mia = seriously no homerism here. just think if either team had a chance to beat the other by two tds its actually the jets. if they hold miami to 23 or less then it only takes a td and a field goal or three fgs to cover (if u can get it at 14.5) if you can't get the 14.5 i still like their chances to cover but if some crazy thing happens like a late td to miami on a turnover or because they gave up on the game it'd suck to not have that extra cushion.
atl +17 @ no matt ryan lost both games at new orleans that he has played in. however one was by 8pts and the other by 4pts. drew brees is capable of throwing for tons of scores against almost anyone at any time but being without bush will be painful. also gore rushed all over new orleans and i look for turner to do the same thus limiting brees' chances to burn them. think 17 is too much for even new orleans to cover this week
sf +16 @ kc this game almost goes both ways. i don't see sf going on the road and blowing out kc by 10 or more but i also think sf losing by 16 is less reasonable. sf has a quality defense and showed they can go out and play against softer defenses like new orleans. i'm not sold on kc's defense just yet as they gave up two tds to both cleveland and san diego (in sd's notoriously slow first game of the year). this means if sf can score two tds and get to 14 (likely) then as long as KC doesn't run over 29pts you will hit this. do you really see kc putting a 30spot up on sf?
hope these help you dl and i'll check in daily still to see if anything else develops but for now i'm staying with my 10pt 3 teamer
I am loving the PIT call more and more with TB having some key "injuries"...
First off they are missing their safety due to substance abuse policy... So they are going to start a rookie...
And they are likely missing their center and even if he plays he will not be 100%...
thank you for all the suggestions...
All road teams tho...
and I dont have as good numbers as you on a few of them...
Baltimore and Bengals are 2 locks for a 13 point teaser.
Bengals going against a rookie QB after getting 4 INTs last week and they're a more veteran team!
Baltimore against Browns. enuff said
Leaning Eagles and Vikings other two...
Good luck
CIN appears to be the trap game of the week... I like what you are saying about the defense being able to create turnovers... how do you think the offense will fair against the CAR defense?
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Quote Originally Posted by Bengalfan9:
Baltimore and Bengals are 2 locks for a 13 point teaser.
Bengals going against a rookie QB after getting 4 INTs last week and they're a more veteran team!
Baltimore against Browns. enuff said
Leaning Eagles and Vikings other two...
Good luck
CIN appears to be the trap game of the week... I like what you are saying about the defense being able to create turnovers... how do you think the offense will fair against the CAR defense?
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