To continue the Bills vs Broncos, let's focus on more aspects of the game besides the Bills passing game vs the Broncos pass defense.
A strength vs strength battle between the Bills run, and the Broncos run D.
Starting in the trenches:
The Bills o line grades out 6th best by PFF for 2025. The Broncos grades out as 4th best d line by PFF.
The Bills o line has created 2.0 yards before contact for RB's, best in the league tied with the Rams. With a 3rd best rush stuff rate of 12.3%
The Broncos d line has allowed 0.9 yards before contact, tied with 3 other teams for 2nd best. With a middle of the pack 19.6% rush stuff rate.
The Bills this year have gained 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 2nd best in the league. Although that # dropped to 4.0 over their last 3 games, and 3.0 in their last game vs the Jags.
The Broncos this year have allowed 3.9 yards per rush, tied for 2nd best in the league. That # over their last 3 games was 4.1, and gave up 5.4 in their last games 2 weeks ago vs the Chargers.
*note, Trey Lance had 69 rush yards on 9 carries in that game. The rest of the RB's had 44 yards on 12 carries for a 3.66 average.*
Can Josh Allen reproduce what Trey Lance did, playing on a bum foot and knee?
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To continue the Bills vs Broncos, let's focus on more aspects of the game besides the Bills passing game vs the Broncos pass defense.
A strength vs strength battle between the Bills run, and the Broncos run D.
Starting in the trenches:
The Bills o line grades out 6th best by PFF for 2025. The Broncos grades out as 4th best d line by PFF.
The Bills o line has created 2.0 yards before contact for RB's, best in the league tied with the Rams. With a 3rd best rush stuff rate of 12.3%
The Broncos d line has allowed 0.9 yards before contact, tied with 3 other teams for 2nd best. With a middle of the pack 19.6% rush stuff rate.
The Bills this year have gained 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 2nd best in the league. Although that # dropped to 4.0 over their last 3 games, and 3.0 in their last game vs the Jags.
The Broncos this year have allowed 3.9 yards per rush, tied for 2nd best in the league. That # over their last 3 games was 4.1, and gave up 5.4 in their last games 2 weeks ago vs the Chargers.
*note, Trey Lance had 69 rush yards on 9 carries in that game. The rest of the RB's had 44 yards on 12 carries for a 3.66 average.*
Can Josh Allen reproduce what Trey Lance did, playing on a bum foot and knee?
More strength on strength stuff from the dvoa guys, with a particular emphasis on types of runs. I'll copy and paste this one:
"Another place where the Broncos may neutralize a Bills strength is on the ground. The Bills are better running when they use zone blocking. They averaged 5.3 yards per carry from outside zone, and only two offenses used outside zone more often. However, the Broncos allowed only 3.4 yards per carry against outside zone, fourth in the NFL."
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More strength on strength stuff from the dvoa guys, with a particular emphasis on types of runs. I'll copy and paste this one:
"Another place where the Broncos may neutralize a Bills strength is on the ground. The Bills are better running when they use zone blocking. They averaged 5.3 yards per carry from outside zone, and only two offenses used outside zone more often. However, the Broncos allowed only 3.4 yards per carry against outside zone, fourth in the NFL."
I'm yet to talk about the Broncos offense vs the Bills defense yet. I'll try to touch on some stuff quickly.
Starting with the trenches(per usual), the Broncos graded out as the best o line in the league this year per PFF. Vs, the Bills #16.
The Broncos o line allowed the 5th best pressure rate, and 4th best no blitz pressure rate. Vs the Bills d line generating the 14th best pressure rate, and 18th no blitz pressure rate.
On runs, the Broncos o line has created 1.6 yards before contact(4th best), and 13th rush stuff rate at 16.2%.
The Bills d line has allowed 1.5 yards before contact(bottom 3rd) and a middle of the pack 19.1% rush stuff rate.
The Broncos were 14th in yards per rush at 4.4 this year, 4.3 over their last 3.
The Bills were 31st with 5.2 yards per rush allowed, with 4.2 over their last 3 games. Although they allowed 6.7 vs the Jags in their last game.
Another snipet here from the dvoa guys:
"The Bills’ poor run defense was worst against man blocking (5.7 yards per carry) or outside zone (5.1 yards per carry). Those happen to be the two concepts the Broncos use most: 27.4% of their runs are man blocking and 21.3% are outside zone."
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I'm yet to talk about the Broncos offense vs the Bills defense yet. I'll try to touch on some stuff quickly.
Starting with the trenches(per usual), the Broncos graded out as the best o line in the league this year per PFF. Vs, the Bills #16.
The Broncos o line allowed the 5th best pressure rate, and 4th best no blitz pressure rate. Vs the Bills d line generating the 14th best pressure rate, and 18th no blitz pressure rate.
On runs, the Broncos o line has created 1.6 yards before contact(4th best), and 13th rush stuff rate at 16.2%.
The Bills d line has allowed 1.5 yards before contact(bottom 3rd) and a middle of the pack 19.1% rush stuff rate.
The Broncos were 14th in yards per rush at 4.4 this year, 4.3 over their last 3.
The Bills were 31st with 5.2 yards per rush allowed, with 4.2 over their last 3 games. Although they allowed 6.7 vs the Jags in their last game.
Another snipet here from the dvoa guys:
"The Bills’ poor run defense was worst against man blocking (5.7 yards per carry) or outside zone (5.1 yards per carry). Those happen to be the two concepts the Broncos use most: 27.4% of their runs are man blocking and 21.3% are outside zone."
Last but not least, Bo Nix vs the Bills pass defense. I'm hoping that we won't have to rely on much Bo Nix here, as the run game should be deployed early and often(Liam Coen still hasn't gotten that memo).
For starters, starting Safety Jordan Poyer is out. The Bills like to use 2 high safeties. I'm sure they'll continue to as Bo Nix thrives vs single high.
"Bo Nix was 22nd (-6.8% DVOA) against 2-high compared to 13th (9.5% DVOA) vs 1-high. And Bills pass defense had -23.1% DVOA (second behind only Houston) with 2-high compared to 33.2% DVOA (29th) with 1-high."
Cam Lewis is listed as Poyer's backup. He grades out at 57.5 per pff. He was also added to the covid list back on Dec 27, so he was ill for a brief time. Other backup safety options are Jordan Hancock(70.2), and Demar Hamlin returned to practice coming off the IR.
You don't really want to blitz Bo Nix, or play man coverage behind it. Nothing earth shattering here...but Bo Nix passer rating vs man is 95, and 86.7 vs zone. With an ok 61.2% blitzed comp percentage. He's been a victim of dropped passes this year, 1.65 per game. 3rd most of any team.
His best attribute this year might be his scrambling ability. Sporting a 3.62% sack rate, 2nd lowest in the league.
All in all, I'm banking on the Broncos sticking to the run as much as possible today. With 2 weeks off to gameplan, I'm sure that Sean Payton has created a good game plan, with maybe a couple of tricks thrown in. By the #'s, he's much better than Andy Reid off a bye.
Good Luck to everyone
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Last but not least, Bo Nix vs the Bills pass defense. I'm hoping that we won't have to rely on much Bo Nix here, as the run game should be deployed early and often(Liam Coen still hasn't gotten that memo).
For starters, starting Safety Jordan Poyer is out. The Bills like to use 2 high safeties. I'm sure they'll continue to as Bo Nix thrives vs single high.
"Bo Nix was 22nd (-6.8% DVOA) against 2-high compared to 13th (9.5% DVOA) vs 1-high. And Bills pass defense had -23.1% DVOA (second behind only Houston) with 2-high compared to 33.2% DVOA (29th) with 1-high."
Cam Lewis is listed as Poyer's backup. He grades out at 57.5 per pff. He was also added to the covid list back on Dec 27, so he was ill for a brief time. Other backup safety options are Jordan Hancock(70.2), and Demar Hamlin returned to practice coming off the IR.
You don't really want to blitz Bo Nix, or play man coverage behind it. Nothing earth shattering here...but Bo Nix passer rating vs man is 95, and 86.7 vs zone. With an ok 61.2% blitzed comp percentage. He's been a victim of dropped passes this year, 1.65 per game. 3rd most of any team.
His best attribute this year might be his scrambling ability. Sporting a 3.62% sack rate, 2nd lowest in the league.
All in all, I'm banking on the Broncos sticking to the run as much as possible today. With 2 weeks off to gameplan, I'm sure that Sean Payton has created a good game plan, with maybe a couple of tricks thrown in. By the #'s, he's much better than Andy Reid off a bye.
Go call on Denver. Josh Allen lost to a man with a Fractured ankle. He will always be a loser that went to Wyoming. He has Loser DNA. I wish I listened to you and others. No matter how you slice it up, mahomes,brady,eli, all the other find a way and NEVER lose to a man with a Fractured ankle.
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Go call on Denver. Josh Allen lost to a man with a Fractured ankle. He will always be a loser that went to Wyoming. He has Loser DNA. I wish I listened to you and others. No matter how you slice it up, mahomes,brady,eli, all the other find a way and NEVER lose to a man with a Fractured ankle.
Live betting isn't my forte. 1-2 start to the round for -0.85 units.
I feel extremely lucky to hit on Denver -1. Non of that game went anything like I thought it would. Sean Payton came out with a weird ass gameplan. Besides the opening scripted drive that only yielded a fg, I don't know what the hell he was doing for the most part.
The Bills ran the ball down the Broncos throat all game, it was impressive. At no point in the game did I feel like my -1 was a winner. It ended up being a true coin flip game, the coin landed heads at the end.
Gonna wait some on the Bears and Rams game to see if certain lines move one way or the other. Sitting on a +3.5(-105) ticket currently. Gut tells me to buy out and just watch, to avoid additional anxiety.
Patriots -3(-115) *1.00/.87
Texans 1Q TT U2.5(+125) *1.25/1.56
Good Luck today fellas
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Live betting isn't my forte. 1-2 start to the round for -0.85 units.
I feel extremely lucky to hit on Denver -1. Non of that game went anything like I thought it would. Sean Payton came out with a weird ass gameplan. Besides the opening scripted drive that only yielded a fg, I don't know what the hell he was doing for the most part.
The Bills ran the ball down the Broncos throat all game, it was impressive. At no point in the game did I feel like my -1 was a winner. It ended up being a true coin flip game, the coin landed heads at the end.
Gonna wait some on the Bears and Rams game to see if certain lines move one way or the other. Sitting on a +3.5(-105) ticket currently. Gut tells me to buy out and just watch, to avoid additional anxiety.
That might be it for the NFL this year, thinking it's time to color up and get up from the table.
Fwiw, leaning Seahawks anything under 3 points. There's a -3(+105) out there tugging at my nuts, that's not a bad bet.
Small lean to Denver +5.5/+5. Although do I think they can beat the Patriots outright with Stidham? Probably not. And it's never wise to bet on a team that you don't think can win su.
Good luck folks
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4-4 +0.88 units
YTD 31-16-6 (+18.63)
That might be it for the NFL this year, thinking it's time to color up and get up from the table.
Fwiw, leaning Seahawks anything under 3 points. There's a -3(+105) out there tugging at my nuts, that's not a bad bet.
Small lean to Denver +5.5/+5. Although do I think they can beat the Patriots outright with Stidham? Probably not. And it's never wise to bet on a team that you don't think can win su.
My guess is Bronco's D will show better vs Pats in a slugfest game, # should get to 6. Thing that gives me most pause is Maye, dude is poised and seems knowledgeable beyond his years.
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My guess is Bronco's D will show better vs Pats in a slugfest game, # should get to 6. Thing that gives me most pause is Maye, dude is poised and seems knowledgeable beyond his years.
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