Week 20 Bets

27-12-6 (+17.75)

Bills@Broncos U46.5(-112) *1.25/1.11

Bears +3.5(-105) *1.05/1.00

Will most likely add later in the week.

Good luck 

Good luck Sac.  

Da Bears!

What's your thoughts on a Rams 1h / Bears 2h bet (similar to the Jags / Bills one you ran last week)?

Bad News Bears 

Naw, not that everyone is talking about it a lot. Even on the radio. My PR's say to take the Rams 1H, but not the Bears 2H.

The weather is throwing us a curveball as well. I don't think the Rams play up to their standards right off the bat. We'll see

Fair...Rams 1H is a play for me personally (and that's not even because of what we've seen Bears been doing as of late)

I had a feeling the Stafford/Davantae connection would be a little rusty after he was off for a few games and it showed. Think he shows up here and it causes fits. Rams should have more room to operate against a less impressive secondary

Nice record 

BOL on your plays 

@undermysac

 Bol this weekend

27-12-6 (+17.75)

Bills@Broncos U46.5(-112) *1.25/1.11

Bears +3.5(-105) *1.05/1.00

Broncos -1(-107) *1.50/1.40

It's tough to bet against Josh Allen in most spots. Although if there was ever a time to fade him, it's in this game imo.

Allen will be tested physically, and mentally. Listed with 3 injuries foot/knee/finger. And let's not forget that he was checked for a concussion vs the Jags.

All these nagging injuries on 1 day less rest than a normal week, vs a team well rested off the bye, at Mile High in elevation. 

It's not the most shocking of info, it is what it is, a tough spot that Josh Allen(if anyone) can probably deal with.

What I don't like going against him is his less than average ability against man coverage. Where his passer rating is 94.4, 21st in the league. A stark contrast when he's throwing against the zone where he is best in the league at 107.8.

The Broncos run man coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. This is coalescent with the Broncos tendency to blitz a lot, 31.9% of the time. When blitzing, or faking blitzes, Vance Joseph has used man coverage 63% of the time this year.

Josh Allen has had 3 particularly poor games this year vs teams that run a lot of man coverage.

The Browns run the most in the league. He was 12/19/130, 0 td's, sacked twice.

The Steelers run the 4th most man, he was 15/23/123, 1 td, 1 int.

The Jets run the 5th most man, and one of the historically worst defenses of all time. They had zero interceptions this year. Allen went 14/25/148, 0 td's, 1 sack.

Vance Joseph has the DB's to run the defense that he does. These dudes can cover just about anybody in the league. I'd be worried to the upmost extent backing a Bills team with currently 3 healthy wr's on their depth chart. Khalil Shakeer, Brand Cooks, and Keon Coleman.

Shakeer and Cooks are small wr's, they're not man beaters. Shakeer stepped up and made 12 receptions vs the Jags, but at a short clip averaging 6.8 yards per reception. Coleman who is 6'4 was targeted only once, making 1 grab.

The Broncos allow 6.6 yards per throw to wr's(2nd best), 7.1 vs TE's(10th best), 5.0 to RB's(5th best).

Now, what the Broncos do much better than the Jaguars is getting pressure on the QB. With a 41.8% pressure rate(3rd best), and a 39.7% no blitz pressure rate(3rd best).

I would think that Josh Allen will make some plays on his own, as he always does. But asking this man to make miracles all game long on his own is asking a lot. Especially on a bad foot and knee.

We could have a little revenge angle here. The Bills smoked the Broncos last year 31-7 in the wildcard round in Buffalo. 

*A fun Bo Nix stat. He is 67-28 in college and NFL combined. He won 2 state championships on the high school level in Alabama*

Sean Payton is 12-6 off a bye, and a perfect 4-0 off a first rd bye in the playoffs. If Sean McDermott out coaches him on Saturday, I'll be shocked, but I'll eat it.

Only 2 more times Sir

@undermysac

 Great write up and info, thanks for sharing this with us, appreciate it so much man 

SAC.......Thanks for taking the time to relay all that Bills information.  You make this a better site because of your dedication.

Id like to thank him as well

@undermysac

 BOL Sac! 

I'd like to see Denver & Bears both win. My brother is a huge Bears fan & if they make it to the SB, he's going to try & get tickets to go. 

It's a longshot but anything is possible. Good luck with all your plays.

Good Stuff 

I think Sean Payton has the coaching advantage and he has some stuff he has been saving for the post season.  

Good Luck

Great info Sac, I posted the revenge angle is another thread, it's important to note.

you closed it well - I'll eat it if Payton gets outclassed by McDermott. GL on your plays

Throwing a little half piece on an exact SB matchup for fun.

Patriots vs the Bears(+2600) *.50/13.00

If they both get through the divisional round, then hedging options will be open.

It'd make for a cool historical 1985 rematch story. Also Caleb the #1 pick vs Maye the #3 pick from 2024.

I'm ready to lose 50 bucks.

BOL this weekend 

Stay hot! 

Great info on the game & BOL to you today!