Week 16 Thoughts and Plays-Hint: I really like the Lions

+16 units week 16, finally a breakthrough week after having a blah season up to this point (something like +3 units total before this past week).

Going to be a thin week as far as volume goes, posting this one early and may add 1 or 2 more along the way.

Lions -2.5 (-120) 4 unit play. SD off three straight covers, with the last one being a 20 point win as an outright dog on SNF. Now they go travel to play a Lions team looking to clinch a playoff berth in its home finale. SD's winning streak has come against 3 shit opponents, make no mistake, when Baltimore throws up those road stinkers they're as bad a team as anybody in the league. 0 quality wins on the entire season so far for SD, they will not be prepared for the level of intensity Detroit will bring. I know they went nuts on the field after an enormous comeback win on the road, and I have a feeling a lot of people will want to fade that. I think the Lions will maintain the high for one more week and practice harder than they've practiced all year. Suh and the dline will look to play a disciplined game in front of their fans, and the crowd will be more daunting than anything Rivers has faced in about 2 months. People talking about the Chargers getting back in the race are conveniently overlooking the fact that SD needs to win out and Denver needs to lose out, their chances are still slim and they are still undoubtedly feeling the pressure. The going hasn't gotten tough for them at any point in these last 3 weeks, they haven't faced any adversity whatsoever in-game. This week they will, and they will fold like the good for nothing team that they truly are. Norv won't have what it takes to get them refocused either. Lions win this game easily, I'll be looking for alt lines once they're posted as well. Will have more to add to this writeup throughout the week, any productive discussion is welcome.

Well, I like your play for the reasons you have described above.

Really nice job this week Raems...your a pretty underrated capper and I always look for your post every week. I initially leaned Over in this game but you have some great reasons for taking the Lions. I think both of these teams are "frauds" but the Chargers definitely more so. It sure looks like the public will be loading up on Chargers thing they are back and Rivers is out of his "slump" after destroying a team that has big problems on the road and focusing against non-elite teams. (Which the Chargers aren't)

Do you have any other "leans" for the upcoming week?

So you think the Chargers vs Raiders game in week 17 wont mean anything? Chargers are playing for a slim shot of getting in...............

All I know is that it's gonna be a very interesting week 17 for the AFC west. Enough said. I have a feeling it's gonna a big game for SD and Raiders on week 17...Also KC and Broncos. Who will win the division?

KC will make it interesting...So will the Chargers. If Broncos lose and Charger, Raiders win...Week 17 will be highest rated week due to the playoff implications on those games.

I don't like the Broncos this week. Bills last home game too for them. Knowing my Pats are gonna spank them on week 17.

Leans: Under Miami/NE, Buffalo plus points, KC at home and SD against Detroit.

no one on the lions secondary will not stop the chargers

i love the lions on sunday too.  I couldnt agree more with your writeup.  goodluck raems!

Just be wary of how Rivers is in December....Has an amazing W/L record during this time.

 

GL

Did you watch the Lions last week vs. Oakland?  Carson Palmer had a field day.  They were down 13 points with 7 mins left.  I like Matt Stafford but he chucked the ball around in the 4th quarter like it was a playground game ...VERY VERY fortunate to have won that game.  Not to mention the Lions Offensive line was suspect and Stafford was under pressure on most series.  Maybe parlay the Lions so you have a security blanket.

is 75% heavy enough?

That game was a must win for Oakland, I'm not surprised they dictated terms for 52 minutes. That said, the Lions showed a lot of resolve, and came back with good clean play. That's a franchise shifting win in my opinion, builds incredible momentum for them going forward, not the kind of momentum that disappears within a few days.

In response to the who stops Rivesr question: Rivers and the Chargers offense have done a phenomenal job stopping themselves all year. They'll find a way to amass 500 yards of offense and come away with 17 points, they always pull some kind of nonsense. Penalties, turnovers, drops, oline being a sieve, you name it they've lost games because of it. They will find a way to screw themselves, that's just how they lose games. It's also a very simple formula, Rivers has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the entire league under pressure this year. He just hasn't faced it in the last 3 weeks, I expect him to in a big way tomorrow.

A better question to ask is who on the Chargers will stop the Lions? It's still some sort of a secret (I don't know why) that the Chargers are among the least talented defenses in the league. They don't have one outstanding player on that side of the ball, and they'll be playing a fast team with a good quarterback for the first time in a month, they'll give up a very sizeable amount of points in my opinion.

Also of note

You're getting a team that has gone 4-9-1 ats in the last two years on the road, and you're getting them off 3 straight covers which strips away even more value. The Chargers have also covered only once in 4 tries off a primetime cover in the past 2 years which goes to show how they come out off their good showings (not a huge sample size though, tough to put a ton of emphasis in that #).

GL Raems. Any others you like 

Minnesota +7 (2 units)/+255 (1 unit)

Love the Lions also bro.  GL

Ford Field will be the loudest it has been in history.  Detroit is getting the fans ready and pumped for this one.  I see tons of false starts for this already mistake prone chargers.  I still think this will be a great game and I will not touch it.  BUT DETROIT IS PUMPED FOR THIS!!!!  Being labeled as "the biggest game in Ford Field history aside from the Superbowl"

I remember when Oakland played San Diego.  Rivers never had the time to throw.  If Oakland can get to Rivers, dont you think our D-line can???  If we do then "Light Out"!!!  We in this mutha fucking tourney once again!!!!

GO LIONS

Tell me why the C's aren't a strong bet tomorrow?

Their gaurd play (backcourt) is a huge question mark, their 1 isn't someone who can distribute right now and not sure if he ever will be.  So much hype with the Knicks right now, this contender talk is mindboggling. 

I like this play also, interested to see where the line closes but always good to fade a team after a big SNF win

According to this site, Public Road Dogs are 35.3% ATS this year.

https://www.statsprofessor.blogspot.com/p/stats.html

I think a lot can change depending what happens in the Denver game. We'll see if any conspiracies come true today in the nfl. lol

Lang is On SD if you care about that type of stuff lol

Just an fyi, Minnesota is on the road this week.  Washington is the home team.

Is everyone forgetting Jackson is a game time decision...and has been reported there's a 50/50 chance he doesn't play.  Groin pulls and strains are tricky injuries, landing wrong...stepping wrong...anything minor can aggravate it.  That is SD's only deep threat.  They can then double Gates, and the old time McMichael is the only other viable option.

This could get ugly without the deep threat, especially with the amount of pressure Detroit is going to be putting on Rivers.

The fact that Pierce is out makes it an even stronger play imo. Knicks can be a very legitimate team with the right bounces, but that won't be determined until April. They're DEFINITELY not that team right now. That said, I can't fade the Knicks tomorrow. I'm just 22 and they were the first team I ever followed, I'll be more than happy to fade them over the course of this season but I just don't feel right fading them in game 1 with all of this hype. I do agree it's a C's or no bet though. Better bet is 1st half under, Knicks have no offensive continuity right now and Boston without Pierce might look brutal for a little while too. Noon start with the whole NBA season opener thing and new Garden lower bowl that the players haven't seen yet may be a changeup too.