Be back later in week to discuss and add a few more I'm eyeing down. I'm gonna miss summertime, but football makes the transition to winter a whole lot easier.
Also did a few props. Lions to win the Super Bowl at like 100/6,300 and Ravens to win the Super Bowl at something like 100/3,400. Nothing too crazy here. Every year I look for a surprise team in each conference. Last year the Bengals and Panthers both teased me at fairly decent odds, and stunk it up in the playoffs, but can't win em all. Lions have all the talent in the world if their new coaches are competent and Baltimore I believe is building a monster defense. That's the gist.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
So far....
Baltimore -2 Tampa Bay -1.5
Be back later in week to discuss and add a few more I'm eyeing down. I'm gonna miss summertime, but football makes the transition to winter a whole lot easier.
Also did a few props. Lions to win the Super Bowl at like 100/6,300 and Ravens to win the Super Bowl at something like 100/3,400. Nothing too crazy here. Every year I look for a surprise team in each conference. Last year the Bengals and Panthers both teased me at fairly decent odds, and stunk it up in the playoffs, but can't win em all. Lions have all the talent in the world if their new coaches are competent and Baltimore I believe is building a monster defense. That's the gist.
Be back later in week to discuss and add a few more I'm eyeing down. I'm gonna miss summertime, but football makes the transition to winter a whole lot easier.
Also did a few props. Lions to win the Super Bowl at like 100/6,300 and Ravens to win the Super Bowl at something like 100/3,400. Nothing too crazy here. Every year I look for a surprise team in each conference. Last year the Bengals and Panthers both teased me at fairly decent odds, and stunk it up in the playoffs, but can't win em all. Lions have all the talent in the world if their new coaches are competent and Baltimore I believe is building a monster defense. That's the gist.
I like Carolina. Love Atalanta.
person luck glyde
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
So far....
Baltimore -2 Tampa Bay -1.5
Be back later in week to discuss and add a few more I'm eyeing down. I'm gonna miss summertime, but football makes the transition to winter a whole lot easier.
Also did a few props. Lions to win the Super Bowl at like 100/6,300 and Ravens to win the Super Bowl at something like 100/3,400. Nothing too crazy here. Every year I look for a surprise team in each conference. Last year the Bengals and Panthers both teased me at fairly decent odds, and stunk it up in the playoffs, but can't win em all. Lions have all the talent in the world if their new coaches are competent and Baltimore I believe is building a monster defense. That's the gist.
Seattle -5.5 and Wash +3(+100). Was leaning GB for awhile, but the more I look at it, I gotta go with Seattle. Been waiting and waiting for Wash to hit +3....and it did and its even money. I'll take it.
I'll be back before Sunday to break down my plays.
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Adding:
Seattle -5.5 and Wash +3(+100). Was leaning GB for awhile, but the more I look at it, I gotta go with Seattle. Been waiting and waiting for Wash to hit +3....and it did and its even money. I'll take it.
I'll be back before Sunday to break down my plays.
Gunshard, I agree with Flacco not being elite and obviously they are gonna miss Ray Rice to some extent. I really like this Ravens D though and I think they come out to make a statement Sunday. GL.
Daher....lol
Tito40. What's up, bro?! Good to see a familiar face! GL as always, brotha.
Capps, what's Jersey cheese?
Pay Dirt Pro....just as long as they win by 2........
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Gunshard, I agree with Flacco not being elite and obviously they are gonna miss Ray Rice to some extent. I really like this Ravens D though and I think they come out to make a statement Sunday. GL.
Daher....lol
Tito40. What's up, bro?! Good to see a familiar face! GL as always, brotha.
Capps, what's Jersey cheese?
Pay Dirt Pro....just as long as they win by 2........
Glyde, wish you weren't on the Skins…like the Texans despite lack of qb talent. I think that D is going to give Rg3 some problems…tell me why you like it if you get a chance. thanks bud
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Glyde, wish you weren't on the Skins…like the Texans despite lack of qb talent. I think that D is going to give Rg3 some problems…tell me why you like it if you get a chance. thanks bud
Tito, I'm playing the Skins mostly because of the high ceiling for that offense. I don't have any numbers or stats, but Washington for a good chunk of the season(I remember late in the season the wheels completely fell off), but before the team "gave up," they were quietly an offensive juggernaut. And that was with a banged up QB, and a defense that was absolutely HORRID.
One game that comes to mind was a mid season SNF game against Dallas. I think they had double the first downs, 200 more rushing yards, double the total yards...and they lost by two touchdowns. That was the story of their season. A team who would out gain almost everyone they played.....to turn the ball over in the red zone. Or they would drive 75 yards in a balanced march and eat up 7 minutes to get to the 5 and kick a FG. Then watch as their defense would give up a TD in 1.5 minutes. Or their horrible special teams.....one of the worst units I've seen in recent history. Another horror show game was against Denver. Have them +13.5 and a few bucks on the ML. They outplayed Denver and I think they held a 21-7 lead after 3 quarters....only to give up something like 34 points to Denver in the 4th quarter.
This year that ST unit can only get better. That defense can only get better.
But the offense is what I'm banking on to win this game in Houston. Last year was like a carnival freak show between the defense, special teams, and IMO a team they gave up by Thanksgiving. And yet that injury riddled offense ran a tricky and balanced offense whether it was RG3 or Cousins at the helm.
Now this offense is a year older and HEALTHY(from RG3 to the TE's). They have a good offensive line and a running game. Garçon and DeSean are legit weapons along with Reed. Houston sports a defense that will rely on bringing pressure from the ends with Watt and now Clowney with a relentless Cushing in the middle. And how do u combat a defense like that? Pound the rock and run right at them. Neutralize that relentless rush and have those DE start crashing the line to help stop the run. And once they start doing that is when RG3 starts pulling out the tricky read option runs to the outside and getting to the edge because those ends are no longer holding contain. Those runs aren't meant to be the 20-30 yards scampers that I think the fans expected two years ago when RG3 was bananas as a rookie. But beat them 2-3 times in the first 18-20 minutes and now they HAVE to respect their contain and that's when Washington continues to pound it right up the gut. Then Houston adjusts and starts loading 8-9 guys in the box and that's when a little play action and those dangerous skill position guys start making plays down the field especially with Houston's top CB hobbled(Joseph if he even plays will be rusty and a step slow).
On the other side of the call, Washington cannot possibly play any worse than they did last year, but they are healthy and have some speed. They are lining up against Fitz who is your typical gunslinger and I think the speed on defense will neutralize the biggest x-factor Houston has which is Fitz taking off and converting big plays with his legs. And what exactly does Fitz have to work with? A decent O-line. A decent back. And an older and slower Andre Johnson. I just don't see it.
Houston is definitely a better team than the s*itfest from last year. Their defense should be decent and could be a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams out there. I just don't think Washington is one of them though.
The line is whacky though. I was convinced the line would stick at 2.5 and my wager would be Wash ML +130-ish. I saw it hopped to +3 yesterday AND no juice and I jumped on it. Now i see +3.5 -120 available. I'm usually really good at scoring the best available line, so it always bugs me when I get schooled, but its week 1 so I'm not too bent. Regardless, I don't see the points mattering on Sunday. IMO Washington wins outright.
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Tito, I'm playing the Skins mostly because of the high ceiling for that offense. I don't have any numbers or stats, but Washington for a good chunk of the season(I remember late in the season the wheels completely fell off), but before the team "gave up," they were quietly an offensive juggernaut. And that was with a banged up QB, and a defense that was absolutely HORRID.
One game that comes to mind was a mid season SNF game against Dallas. I think they had double the first downs, 200 more rushing yards, double the total yards...and they lost by two touchdowns. That was the story of their season. A team who would out gain almost everyone they played.....to turn the ball over in the red zone. Or they would drive 75 yards in a balanced march and eat up 7 minutes to get to the 5 and kick a FG. Then watch as their defense would give up a TD in 1.5 minutes. Or their horrible special teams.....one of the worst units I've seen in recent history. Another horror show game was against Denver. Have them +13.5 and a few bucks on the ML. They outplayed Denver and I think they held a 21-7 lead after 3 quarters....only to give up something like 34 points to Denver in the 4th quarter.
This year that ST unit can only get better. That defense can only get better.
But the offense is what I'm banking on to win this game in Houston. Last year was like a carnival freak show between the defense, special teams, and IMO a team they gave up by Thanksgiving. And yet that injury riddled offense ran a tricky and balanced offense whether it was RG3 or Cousins at the helm.
Now this offense is a year older and HEALTHY(from RG3 to the TE's). They have a good offensive line and a running game. Garçon and DeSean are legit weapons along with Reed. Houston sports a defense that will rely on bringing pressure from the ends with Watt and now Clowney with a relentless Cushing in the middle. And how do u combat a defense like that? Pound the rock and run right at them. Neutralize that relentless rush and have those DE start crashing the line to help stop the run. And once they start doing that is when RG3 starts pulling out the tricky read option runs to the outside and getting to the edge because those ends are no longer holding contain. Those runs aren't meant to be the 20-30 yards scampers that I think the fans expected two years ago when RG3 was bananas as a rookie. But beat them 2-3 times in the first 18-20 minutes and now they HAVE to respect their contain and that's when Washington continues to pound it right up the gut. Then Houston adjusts and starts loading 8-9 guys in the box and that's when a little play action and those dangerous skill position guys start making plays down the field especially with Houston's top CB hobbled(Joseph if he even plays will be rusty and a step slow).
On the other side of the call, Washington cannot possibly play any worse than they did last year, but they are healthy and have some speed. They are lining up against Fitz who is your typical gunslinger and I think the speed on defense will neutralize the biggest x-factor Houston has which is Fitz taking off and converting big plays with his legs. And what exactly does Fitz have to work with? A decent O-line. A decent back. And an older and slower Andre Johnson. I just don't see it.
Houston is definitely a better team than the s*itfest from last year. Their defense should be decent and could be a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams out there. I just don't think Washington is one of them though.
The line is whacky though. I was convinced the line would stick at 2.5 and my wager would be Wash ML +130-ish. I saw it hopped to +3 yesterday AND no juice and I jumped on it. Now i see +3.5 -120 available. I'm usually really good at scoring the best available line, so it always bugs me when I get schooled, but its week 1 so I'm not too bent. Regardless, I don't see the points mattering on Sunday. IMO Washington wins outright.
Anyone have any thoughts on the Saints-Falcons? If u know me from a decade of posting, I don't like road chalk, and especially early season road chalk. If this year is anything like last year, road favorites will be a dangerous proposition the entire season. The NFL is ever evolving though so I don't ever expect ANY angle to stick from season to season. The older I get the more I'm an "eyes and gut" kind of capper over a stats and numbers capper. I do my research, I enjoy Sunday, then DVR all the shortcuts and slowly watch them early in the week so I saw every play with my eyes rather than through a box score. Okay I'm stoned and babbling at this point....back on track....the Saints. One thing I noticed is that favorites won at a fairly high rate last year compared to prior years. A lot of that was the good teams were really good and everyone else kind of sucked, so if there is anything I can expect is that the powers to be will be shading the favorites a bit higher this year....at least early on. So while my card is 3/5 favorites, I do believe we will see a fair amount of pups covering in both week 1 and the month of September overall.
Saints could be seen as a sucker bet of sorts. I really think these guys have a solid solid squad and if SF falls apart like all the doomsday people think(I have faith Harbaugh will figure it out and hold the boat afloat), the Saints are hands down the SECOND best team in a very solid conference. Atlanta is looking to bounce back from a horrid season and Julio Jones is a big part of that. Problem is he is being matched up with a shut down corner no one ever talks about....Keenan Lewis. I watched him in two preseason games and especially the important 3rd game and he's still the monster he was last year. No one dared threw his way and one time they did, Lewis used intuition to leave his man, and jump the slot WR route(doing a 7 yard out) and was a longer fingertip from a pk6. I can't imagine Ryan would even look his way and if Lewis follows JJ around the fiekd...he might neutralize Atlanta's true number 1 weapon.
Just a lean for now, but I have my eye on the Saints.
My card was gonna be finished with a final play on either Tenn or Minny, but I feel like I lost the line game with both of those squads. I think both could have been gotten at +4.5 or higher just a week ago, but I learned a few years back....locking games down too early can backfire. So I snoozed and I lost and I'm always hesitant to hit a team +3 when it was 6 a few days ago.
So for now:
- Baltimore -2 - Tampa Bay -1.5 - Washington +3(+100)
Leans on Tenn, Minn, and NO.
GL luck to all. Lets have another winning season!
Sent from my iPhone
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Anyone have any thoughts on the Saints-Falcons? If u know me from a decade of posting, I don't like road chalk, and especially early season road chalk. If this year is anything like last year, road favorites will be a dangerous proposition the entire season. The NFL is ever evolving though so I don't ever expect ANY angle to stick from season to season. The older I get the more I'm an "eyes and gut" kind of capper over a stats and numbers capper. I do my research, I enjoy Sunday, then DVR all the shortcuts and slowly watch them early in the week so I saw every play with my eyes rather than through a box score. Okay I'm stoned and babbling at this point....back on track....the Saints. One thing I noticed is that favorites won at a fairly high rate last year compared to prior years. A lot of that was the good teams were really good and everyone else kind of sucked, so if there is anything I can expect is that the powers to be will be shading the favorites a bit higher this year....at least early on. So while my card is 3/5 favorites, I do believe we will see a fair amount of pups covering in both week 1 and the month of September overall.
Saints could be seen as a sucker bet of sorts. I really think these guys have a solid solid squad and if SF falls apart like all the doomsday people think(I have faith Harbaugh will figure it out and hold the boat afloat), the Saints are hands down the SECOND best team in a very solid conference. Atlanta is looking to bounce back from a horrid season and Julio Jones is a big part of that. Problem is he is being matched up with a shut down corner no one ever talks about....Keenan Lewis. I watched him in two preseason games and especially the important 3rd game and he's still the monster he was last year. No one dared threw his way and one time they did, Lewis used intuition to leave his man, and jump the slot WR route(doing a 7 yard out) and was a longer fingertip from a pk6. I can't imagine Ryan would even look his way and if Lewis follows JJ around the fiekd...he might neutralize Atlanta's true number 1 weapon.
Just a lean for now, but I have my eye on the Saints.
My card was gonna be finished with a final play on either Tenn or Minny, but I feel like I lost the line game with both of those squads. I think both could have been gotten at +4.5 or higher just a week ago, but I learned a few years back....locking games down too early can backfire. So I snoozed and I lost and I'm always hesitant to hit a team +3 when it was 6 a few days ago.
So for now:
- Baltimore -2 - Tampa Bay -1.5 - Washington +3(+100)
Joseph is actually probable and had full practice today. My bad on the bad info by me. Could have sworn I read a report a couple days ago that he was limping around like a Walking Dead zombie.
That's my bad. Sometimes I get stoned and ramble on and on, but 80% of it is off the cuff off the top of my head nonsense. Need to make sure my facts are straight before I start firing off posts.
Like anyone gives a flying f+ck what I'm writing anyway! Take away a handful of cool intelligent regulars, and the rest of this forum are water heads! I kid, I kid. I love the angry, aggressive, sarcastic, vicious world of degenerate gamblers like myself! Let's all win some money this weekend, ay?
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Joseph is actually probable and had full practice today. My bad on the bad info by me. Could have sworn I read a report a couple days ago that he was limping around like a Walking Dead zombie.
That's my bad. Sometimes I get stoned and ramble on and on, but 80% of it is off the cuff off the top of my head nonsense. Need to make sure my facts are straight before I start firing off posts.
Like anyone gives a flying f+ck what I'm writing anyway! Take away a handful of cool intelligent regulars, and the rest of this forum are water heads! I kid, I kid. I love the angry, aggressive, sarcastic, vicious world of degenerate gamblers like myself! Let's all win some money this weekend, ay?
I've learned more from your ramblings over the years than from anyone or anywhere else. Always a great read. Love the way you look at the game. Tons of stat heads and computer guys out there nowadays just betting whatever their program tells them to. I respect that and I think stats provide a great "baseline". I use many of the advanced metrics myself. There's no way to quantify this but I honestly believe that watching the games and getting a feel for a team and how they do in certain situations remains an invaluable tool. They math guys will disagree, but there are just some things that the numbers don't tell you about the makeup of a team.
Lean your way on WSH. Team should score a ton of points this year. The division is so bad that I wouldn't be shocked if they won it. Giants and Cowboys are always flakes. I'm not high on Philly at all. Career year from McCoy + generational good fortune from Foles + 5 o-linemen playing all 16 games won't happen again. The NFL will figure out Kelly's offense. He's not recruiting track stars like at Oregon where his teams were flat out more talented than everyone else. Their D still sucks balls too.
Keep trucking.
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I've learned more from your ramblings over the years than from anyone or anywhere else. Always a great read. Love the way you look at the game. Tons of stat heads and computer guys out there nowadays just betting whatever their program tells them to. I respect that and I think stats provide a great "baseline". I use many of the advanced metrics myself. There's no way to quantify this but I honestly believe that watching the games and getting a feel for a team and how they do in certain situations remains an invaluable tool. They math guys will disagree, but there are just some things that the numbers don't tell you about the makeup of a team.
Lean your way on WSH. Team should score a ton of points this year. The division is so bad that I wouldn't be shocked if they won it. Giants and Cowboys are always flakes. I'm not high on Philly at all. Career year from McCoy + generational good fortune from Foles + 5 o-linemen playing all 16 games won't happen again. The NFL will figure out Kelly's offense. He's not recruiting track stars like at Oregon where his teams were flat out more talented than everyone else. Their D still sucks balls too.
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Like anyone gives a flying f+ck what I'm writing anyway! Take away a handful of cool intelligent regulars, and the rest of this forum are water heads! I kid, I kid. I love the angry, aggressive, sarcastic, vicious world of degenerate gamblers like myself! Let's all win some money this weekend, ay?
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