Week 1 winners.

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I've learned more from your ramblings over the years than from anyone or anywhere else. Always a great read. Love the way you look at the game. Tons of stat heads and computer guys out there nowadays just betting whatever their program tells them to. I respect that and I think stats provide a great "baseline". I use many of the advanced metrics myself. There's no way to quantify this but I honestly believe that watching the games and getting a feel for a team and how they do in certain situations remains an invaluable tool. They math guys will disagree, but there are just some things that the numbers don't tell you about the makeup of a team.Lean your way on WSH. Team should score a ton of points this year. The division is so bad that I wouldn't be shocked if they won it. Giants and Cowboys are always flakes. I'm not high on Philly at all. Career year from McCoy + generational good fortune from Foles + 5 o-linemen playing all 16 games won't happen again. The NFL will figure out Kelly's offense. He's not recruiting track stars like at Oregon where his teams were flat out more talented than everyone else. Their D still sucks balls too. Keep trucking.

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Tito, I'm playing the Skins mostly because of the high ceiling for that offense. I don't have any numbers or stats, but Washington for a good chunk of the season(I remember late in the season the wheels completely fell off), but before the team "gave up," they were quietly an offensive juggernaut. And that was with a banged up QB, and a defense that was absolutely HORRID. 

One game that comes to mind was a mid season SNF game against Dallas. I think they had double the first downs, 200 more rushing yards, double the total yards...and they lost by two touchdowns. That was the story of their season. A team who would out gain almost everyone they played.....to turn the ball over in the red zone. Or they would drive 75 yards in a balanced march and eat up 7 minutes to get to the 5 and kick a FG. Then watch as their defense would give up a TD in 1.5 minutes. Or their horrible special teams.....one of the worst units I've seen in recent history. Another horror show game was against Denver. Have them +13.5 and a few bucks on the ML. They outplayed Denver and I think they held a 21-7 lead after 3 quarters....only to give up something like 34 points to Denver in the 4th quarter. 

This year that ST unit can only get better. That defense can only get better. 

But the offense is what I'm banking on to win this game in Houston. Last year was like a carnival freak show between the defense, special teams, and IMO a team they gave up by Thanksgiving. And yet that injury riddled offense ran a tricky and balanced offense whether it was RG3 or Cousins at the helm. 

Now this offense is a year older and HEALTHY(from RG3 to the TE's). They have a good offensive line and a running game. Garçon and DeSean are legit weapons along with Reed. Houston sports a defense that will rely on bringing pressure from the ends with Watt and now Clowney with a relentless Cushing in the middle. And how do u combat a defense like that? Pound the rock and run right at them. Neutralize that relentless rush and have those DE start crashing the line to help stop the run. And once they start doing that is when RG3 starts pulling out the tricky read option runs to the outside and getting to the edge because those ends are no longer holding contain. Those runs aren't meant to be the 20-30 yards scampers that I think the fans expected two years ago when RG3 was bananas as a rookie. But beat them 2-3 times in the first 18-20 minutes and now they HAVE to respect their contain and that's when Washington continues to pound it right up the gut.  Then Houston adjusts and starts loading 8-9 guys in the box and that's when a little play action and those dangerous skill position guys start making plays down the field especially with Houston's top CB hobbled(Joseph if he even plays will be rusty and a step slow). 

On the other side of the call, Washington cannot possibly play any worse than they did last year, but they are healthy and have some speed. They are lining up against Fitz who is your typical gunslinger and I think the speed on defense will neutralize the biggest x-factor Houston has which is Fitz taking off and converting big plays with his legs. And what exactly does Fitz have to work with? A decent O-line. A decent back. And an older and slower Andre Johnson. I just don't see it. 

Houston is definitely a better team than the s*itfest from last year. Their defense should be decent and could be a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams out there. I just don't think Washington is one of them though. 

The line is whacky though. I was convinced the line would stick at 2.5 and my wager would be Wash ML +130-ish. I saw it hopped to +3 yesterday AND no juice and I jumped on it. Now i see +3.5 -120 available. I'm usually really good at scoring the best available line, so it always bugs me when I get schooled, but its week 1 so I'm not too bent. Regardless, I don't see the points mattering on Sunday. IMO Washington wins outright. 

Quote Originally Posted by earthWake:

Goodluck man. I'm glad you continued to ride the Seahawks train again,I really think the Ravens/Bengals game is going to go right down to the wire. Too close to call IMO, I like the Bengals in OT. I also was very high on the Skins this year, but RG3 just worries me. I will be laying a small amount on them, but damn that guy is a wildcard.