week 1 angles/plays

Note:  Deleted my Nevada moneyline play (my bookmaker allows me to cancel my wagers, usually at no charge) as they had 65% of the public on them

Bets

Adding: 

13)  Iowa State +3'.....1/2 unit...................26% of public on them (KOC contest)

1)  Commanders +3', -115.....1 unit.................42%

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit.........................45%

3)  Cardinals +6'..........1 unit.........................35%

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................32%

5)  OVER 55 Nevada/Georgia Southern.....1 unit...53%

6)  Michigan State +9...1/2 unit..........................44%

7)  Tulsa +7.................1/2 unit.......................46%

8) San Jose State +6'...1/2 unit........................32%

9)  Texas Tech +2........1/2 unit........................31%

10)  Temple +12'..........1/2 unit......................27%

11)  Ottawa (CFL) -1'.......2 units

12)  Winnipeg -2 (CFL).....2 units

Jaguars +3'............1 unit........cancelled, no play

may add Edmonton (CFL) -3ish later in the day

j)  A week 1 NFL Monday night football home favorite that had better record last season than their present opponent that won at least 10 games the previous season playing a team that won less than 12 games......2-10 ATS (-4.3), 7-5 straight up (+2.2)......VERSUS 49ers

Query text.......HF and day = Monday and week = 1 and tpS(W)>=10 and opS(W) <12 and tpS(W)>opS(W)

and so it begins.....good fortune to everyone here...we'll see how the Wheel of Fortune turns this season for everyone of us.

As a fun exercise I am going to list the teams that showed up in angles that I haven't made a play on....a very good player on this forum once said that he will make plays on indicated teams that he thinks will lose.....I agree with that as I think that is a mark of a good bettor, that one lets the data speak, and not "go with your gut" as so many seem to think.  Often one will make a plays that, from a gut level, you don't think they can cover for you....it may seem like a paradox that I am not playing the teams below, but there are just too many indicated teams, 14 in this case, and I don't want a betting card with 30 teams being bet for a particular weekend.

NFL teams......Jaguars.........just don't like them in this game and I don't like Lawrence as a quarterback, 

NCAA......Ohio, Nevada, BYU, PItt, Arkansas, Duke and Mississippi State were all filtered out b/c of their popularity with the betting public....most every time if more than 50% of the pubic is on an indicated play on the King of Covers contest, it becomes a no-play for me.  Sometimes I will make a play early week during the football season, and it turns out later that a lot of other bettors agree with me making it a majority opinion...that can't be helped once in awhile.

There is much sometimes heated debate about using the betting interest or lack of, as a betting strategy....this year I am going to track this to prove it to myself that this is viable, and if it doesn't show an advantage by eliminating those popular betting teams over the course of a season, then that is one of the many theories of sports betting that I will  have thrown in the scrap heap, I am not aware of anyone who has actually has put down what teams in his calculations are  indicated plays while itemizing  those that don't get bet over the course of a season based on their popularity with the public.

I am aware of the argument that it isn't the percentage of bets that is most important, but the amount of money wagered that matters....I am not interested in testing or investigating that argument at this time.

NCAA2....Virginia, Sam Houston, UMass, UTSA and Troy were filtered out as the betting line didn't qualify or in one instance, I hated the South Carolina/Kentucky matchup, so I eliminated the Gamecocks as a possible play.

k)  A week 1 away NFL dog that lost either 5 or 6 out of their past six games the previous season....44-27 ATS

  1)  if the line is less than 7.....26-13-4 ATS (+3.5), 14-29 straight up (-0.6)

  2)  if they also had the lesser record last season in comparison to their present opponent 21-7-3 ATS, 10-21 straight up (-0.3)

  3)  our away dog with either be favored their next game and/or their opponent will be a dog....21-5-3 ATS (+5.3), 10-19 straight up (+0.4)....ON Commanders, Panthers, Jaguars

Query text.....tpS(W, N=6) < 2 and D and week = 1 and site = away and PRSW<o:PRSW and (on:D or n:F)

Adding:

14)  Futures bet...Edmonton Elks to win Grey Cup.....   .1 unit  unit at 52 to1

Elks has been a top 3 team the last 5 games along with Montreal and Winnipeg.  Three teams above them, BC, Saskatchewan and Calgary have won 1 game out of their last 9 games combined.........for those that don't know Canadian football, the top three teams in each division qualify for the playoffs......the Elks host Calgary this weekend and then have a home game with Winnipeg....they win those two games, and they are one game out of first place with four games remaining........a 8-10 or 9-9 record will probably get them in the playoffs, and then hedging opportunities will abound.....they could possibly be hosting a playoff game in the Western Division semifinals.  The Saint Louis Blues, about 5 years ago won the Stanley Cup sitting in a very similar position at that point of their season.

Adding: 

14)  Edmonton (CFL) -4'.......2 units

13)  Iowa State +3'.....1/2 unit...................26% of public on them (KOC contest)

1)  Commanders +3', -105.....1 unit.................42%

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit.........................45%

3)  Cardinals +6' -105.......1 unit.........................35%

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................32%

5)  OVER 55 Nevada/Georgia Southern.....1 unit...53%

6)  Michigan State +9...1/2 unit..........................44%

7)  Tulsa +7.................1/2 unit.......................46%

8) San Jose State +6'...1/2 unit........................32%

9)  Texas Tech +2........1/2 unit........................31%

10)  Temple +12'..........1/2 unit......................27%

11)  Ottawa (CFL) -1'.......2 units.....................................winner

12)  Winnipeg -2 (CFL).....2 units.....................................winner....last minute field goal gets us the W

Adding: 

14)  Edmonton (CFL) -4'.......2 units

13)  Iowa State +3'.....1/2 unit...................26% of public on them (KOC contest)........winner

1)  Commanders +3', -105.....1 unit.................42%

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit.........................45%

3)  Cardinals +6' -105.......1 unit.........................35%

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................32%

5)  OVER 55 Nevada/Georgia Southern.....1 unit...53%

6)  Michigan State +9...1/2 unit..........................44%..........winner

7)  Tulsa +7.................1/2 unit.......................46%

8) San Jose State +6'...1/2 unit........................32%

9)  Texas Tech +2........1/2 unit........................31%

10)  Temple +12'..........1/2 unit......................27%.........loser 

11)  Ottawa (CFL) -1'.......2 units.....................................winner

12)  Winnipeg -2 (CFL).....2 units.....................................winner....last minute field goal gets us the W

Plays with public betting percentages on the right. 

1)  Commanders +3', -105.....1 unit.................42%

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit.........................45%

3)  Cardinals +6' -105.......1 unit.........................35%

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................32%

5)  OVER 55 Nevada/Georgia Southern.....1 unit...53%...........loser

6)  Michigan State +9...1/2 unit..........................44%..........winner

7)  Tulsa +7.................1/2 unit.......................46%............winner

8) San Jose State +6'...1/2 unit........................32%............winner

9)  Texas Tech +2........1/2 unit........................31%

10)  Temple +12'..........1/2 unit......................27%.........loser 

11)  Ottawa (CFL) -1'.......2 units.....................................winner

12)  Winnipeg -2 (CFL).....2 units.....................................winner....last minute field goal gets us the W

13)  Iowa State +3'.....1/2 unit...................26%.............winner

14)  Edmonton (CFL) -4'.......2 units...............................winner

7-2, +6.35 units............with Texas Tech and the NFL pending....

@Indigo999

 Nice job today keep it going tomorrow

@Indigo999

 Great job bud. Thank you for taking the time to post

Isn't TT void as they went off a 3 point favorite

"Isn't TT void as they went off a 3 point favorite?"

I voided the Texas Tech bet in my personal plays, but didn't update it here, so it will count as a loser in my online record.

For those that tail, if my bet that I play early on in the week becomes favored or is a publicly backed dog, I for now have the ability to rescind that bet and probably will....realize that not all of you have that option....but getting in early this week got me 9 points of value from the closing line, so it is a non-issue for me because I can opt out....and you may not be able to....you'll have to weigh up the pros and cons of betting early or late and decide for yourselves what you want to do.

Passed on Falcons, Colts and Browns tomorrow though they have very good angles supporting them....still on the fence on whether I'll take the Jets on MNF.

Adding:

0)  Jaguars +3'.........1 unit...............................37% of the KOC public on them.

____________________________________________________________________________

I'll think I'm the coolest dude ever if the Jaguars get it done for me, but it's caused me plenty of consternation whether or not I'd be on them...they fall into two angles, b and k, from my writeups that are very strong, so for better or worse we're riding them.

1)  Commanders +3', -105.....1 unit...................40%

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit...........................38%

3)  Cardinals +6' -105.......1 unit.......................38%

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................44%

Ugly dogs are where it's at early season Mates......

Almost certainly will be on the Argonauts as away doggies going to British Columbia next week in the CFL.

Actually the Jaguars are under the two angles listed below....

f)  A home favorite of less than 7 points before week 8 whose next game is on Thursday....15-47 ATS (-4.7), 27-36 straight up (-1.2).....VERSUS Bills, VERSUS Dolphins

k)  An away dog week 1 of less than 7 poiints that lost either 5 or 6 of their last six games from the prior season, had the lesser record than their opponent and will be a favorite their next game (or their opponent will be an underdog)...Jaguars, Commanders, Panthers.....21-5-3 ATS

0)  Jaguars +3'.........1 unit...............................37% of the KOC public on them.......winner

1)  Commanders +3', -105.....1 unit...................40%

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit...........................38%.....the Bears' best offense was Will Levis....loser

3)  Cardinals +6' -105.......1 unit.......................38%.............................................winner

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................44%....maybe he is a bust..............loser

We'll see how we go with the Commanders

0)  Jaguars +3'.........1 unit...............................37% of the KOC public on them.......winner

1)  Commanders +3', -105.....1 unit...................40%....loss

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit...........................38%.....the Bears' best offense was Will Levis....loser

3)  Cardinals +6' -105.......1 unit.......................38%.............................................winner

4)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit..........................44%....maybe he is a bust..............loser

Adding:

5)  Jets +4.....1 unit

Turns out that the Titans loss (and against the spread as well) was a 3 in 1200 occurrence.  The Bears did nothing on offense.  Three of these games the road team, my team was comfortably ahead at half-time only for all of them to give it up in the seond half, and in the end I feel fortunate that I didn't go 0-5 for Sunday.

Next week will be very different from this week's games....for whatever reason in college dogs do not do as well in week 3 as the rest of the season....so we will be taking some ugly favorites.

Teams that lose at home in the first month of so of the season in the NFL tend to do well on the road their next game..