To those on this forum who have been doing this for a long time, please disregard the trolls. Those looking for instant gratification, the ones who think they can cap at 60-70% which isn't even real. Caping at above 53% means you can beat the vig and be a professional. The same idiots who don't understand bankroll management, and betting 1-3% of BR on a single game.
Week one is notoriously difficult to cap. No matter how closely you follow a team, how much you pay attention during OTAs and camp, dissect the roster, read PFF grades, and follow trends, things happen. Let us reflect on what just happened in week 1.....
1. Bengals were a complete no show and lost to the Patriots. They turned the ball over, including a fumble by their TE at the goal line which would have otherwise won them the game. It wiped out 50% of most survivor pools
2. The Panthers picked up significant steam from sharp bettors who steamed up their season win total. Many believed that they were going to beat the Saints and long term, they projected that Dave Canales would resurrect Bryce Young's career, but.
3. Everyone and their mother was on Houston Texans -3. Look how that turned out? People still love Houston but that game could have EASILY gone either way and the Colts could have won that game.
4. It seemed that the overwhelming majority of the forum felt there was value on the Jets at +4.5. Their defense did not show up, and they lack major depth at defensive tackle. Quinnen Williams simply cannot do it on his own, he was facing double teams all day and the Niners were able to effectively run against the remaining D-line. Kinlaw, who was a 49er last year was getting blown off the ball. Their offense was predictable on first and second down, running the ball with little to no motion pre-snap and no mis-direction. These things will need to get corrected but to write off the Jets after one game is such a classic week 1 over-reaction and will allow others to buy high before they hit their stride as the season progresses.
5. Key injuries will sideline starters and that naturally will affect other teams in the NFL--Jordan Love MCL sprain, Rome Adunze ML, Rams losing their starting LT, Bucs being down to their 3rd string corner now facing a potent Lions passing offense....etc. etc.
Point being - disregarding the trolls who are total amateurs. Resist the urge to give a knee jerk response based on any one game (especially season opener) where many starters haven't played in the pre-season and will need time to gel together. Remember that the NFL is a marathon and not a race....pace yourself, follow the games, take meticulous notes for games from the week prior, and adjust your position accordingly.
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