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Trends & Things week 9 2008 NFL

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Posted: #1
WEEK 9 Trends & Things
 
Trend Picks go 2-1 for  week 8
 
Trend pick results :
 
Underdog trend picks : ( 8-4 YTD )
 
NY Giants  winner
 
Favorite trend picks :  ( 5-3 YTD )
 
SF 49ers  Loser
 
Totals trend pick : ( 3-0 YTD )
 
Atl - Phil Under  Winner
 
This Week : 2 - 1
All picks : 16 - 7 YTD
13-3 last 16
spreads come from covers scoreboard
 
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Posted: #2
UPDATE>>>
Always going by covers scoreboard #'s
 
Favorites vs Underdogs >>>
 
Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS
Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game canceled )
Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS
Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS
Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS   
Week 6 : Favs  6 - 8 ATS
Week 7  : Favs 6 - 8 ATS
Week 8 :  Favs  7 - 7 ATS
( Note 2 of these favs covering include lines where Dallas & Miami are shown to be favored by 1 point )
 
YTD : Favs lead 61 - 53 -2 ( 53.5 %  )  ATS
 
Overs vs Unders >>>
 
Week 1 : Overs  7 - 9
Week 2 : Overs  7 - 8  ( one game canceled )
Week 3   Overs  11 - 5
Week 4   Overs  10 - 2 - 1
Week 5 : Overs  8 - 6
Week 6 : Overs  4 - 9 - 1
Week 7 : Overs  7 - 6 - 1
Week 8 : Overs 6 - 7 - 1
 
YTD Overs lead 60 - 53 - 3  ( 53.1 %  )
 
NOTE :
Double Digit favorites keep struggling as the NYJ fail to cover vs KC , while teams favored by just under double digits continue to do well as Baltimore , Houston , and Philadelphia cover their spreads .
This has been the pattern this year .
In fact , using covers lines this is the breakdown week by week separating teams that are favored by either 9 or 9.5 points compared to teams that are favored by 10 or more >>>
 
Group 1 ( Favorites of 9 & 9.5 points )
 
week 1 : 1-1 ATS
week 2 : 1-0 ATS
week 3 : 1-1 ATS
week 4 : 3-0 ATS
week 5 : 1-0 ATS
week 6 : 1-1 ATS
week 7 : 2-1 ATS
week 8 : 3-1 ATS
 
Group 2  ( Favorites of 10 or more points )
 
week 1 : 0-2 ATS
week 2 : 0-0 ATS
week 3 : 0-3 ATS
week 4 : 0-1 ATS
week 5 : 0-1 ATS
week 6 : 0-2 ATS
week 7 : 1-2 ATS
week 8 : 0-1 ATS
 
Summary :
 
Teams favored by 9 or 9.5 are 13-5 ATS YTD
Teams favored by >= 10 are 1-12 ATS YTD
 
Week 9 : Chicago - 13 vs Detroit 
 
          
Week 9 : NYG - 9 / 9.5 vs Dallas
              Tampa Bay - 9 / 9.5 vs KC
 
Through 8 weeks in the 2008 NFL season you will not find any lines of 8 or 8.5 points in covers .
 
In fact there are only 6 of them listed for the 2007 NFL season .
The favorites going 3-3 ATS in those .
 
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Posted: #3
NFC vs AFC update >>>
 
WEEK 7 Games >>
 
Detroit @ Houston -8 / - 10  AFC wins SU & NFC wins ATS
Indianapolis @ GB + 1 / pk  NFC wins SU & NFC wins ATS
Cleveland @ Wash -7 / -7.5 NFC wins SU & AFC wins ATS
NFC 2-1 SU
NFC 2-1 ATS
 
Now the YTD  inter-conference numbers look like this >>
 
NFC leads AFC 13-10 SU
NFC leads AFC  13-10 ATS
Note : AFC has been favored in 12 of these games going 6-6 ATS while the NFC has been favored in 11 of those games going 7-4 ATS
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update including week 8
 
Week 8 games :
 
STLouis @ NE - 7  >>AFC wins SU & NFC wins ATS
SD  @ NO + 3   >>NFC wins SU & NFC wins ATS
NYG  @ Pitt - 3   >>NFC wins SU & NFC wins ATS
 ( AFC is favored in all 3 games )
Results : NFC goes 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS
 
Through 8 weeks of play >>>
 
NFC leads the AFC 15 -11 SU
NFC leads the AFC  16 - 10 ATS
 
Note : AFC has been favored in 15 of these games going
6 - 9 ATS while the NFC has been favored in 11 of those games going 7-4 ATS
 
The tide is changing , and this week we had  the losses of the Steelers @ home  vs the NY Giants and the Chargers vs  the Saints on neutral ground as further proof that the AFC is losing its long held grip over the NFC conference .
Naturally, this has much to do with the powerhouses of the AFC weakening at once . 
But, keep an eye on these inter-conference games as we get through the heart  of the NFL schedule
 
Week 9 games sheduled between the conferences :
 
Tampa Bay @ Kansas City + 9.5
Houston @ Minnesota - 4.5
Green Bay @ Tennessee - 5.5
Atlanta @ Oakland + 3
Pittsburgh @ Washington - 1
 
Key matchup : AFC is favored in only one game with the current powerhouse of the AFC Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers
 
Are we going to see the NFC go 4-1 ATS this week ..?
 
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Posted: #4
I heard a rumor you were working for some sportsbook in an attempt to suede people on the losing side once you have their attention.. do you have any defense to that accusation? sorry if I'm making this bigger than it is
 
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Posted: #5
BET TRACKER UPDATE :
 
In week 6 we saw a team , the NY Jets get a significant percentage of the bets , while the line remain fixed at 3 throughout the week . Oakland did beat NYJ in week 7
 
tracked on Tuesday from week 8 >>>
Only one team above 75 %  week 8 >>>
 
Baltimore ...76 %  ( winner )
 
However , by Wed a few teams had joined in :
Wed night >>
 
Baltimore ...83 % line increase  (Winner )
Buffalo ...80 % ....no movement  ( Loser )
Washington ....77 %..... line increase ( Winner )
Carolina ....70 % .....line decrease ( Loser )
 
Only tracking 75 % or above plays ...
 
As it was with the NY Jets vs Oakland last week ....
it was Miami that was getting enough $ sent their way to counteract more than 75 % of the action on the Buffalo Bills with essentially no movement on the line .
Even though , Carolina was under the 75 % line , the line for the Carolina game decreased . Unless you ended up with Carolina - 4 , picking Carolina proved to be a loser .
 
**************************************
These above  were from weeks 7 & weeks 8
 
NOW WEEK 9 :
 
The numbers I got on Tuesday >>>
 
Philadelphia ....87 % line -7 ( steady )
Denver ...78 % line -3 ( steady )
Arizona ...78 % line -3 ( steady )
Atlanta ....77 % line -3 ( steady )
 
Tennessee ...72 % line -5.5 ( steady )
 
Wed night update :
 
Philadelphia ...87 % ( line steady -7 )
Atlanta ...77 % line  (line steady   - 3 )
Arizona ...78 % line ( line steady - 3 )
 
Jacksonville ...73 % ( line increased from -7.5 to - 9 )
Tampa Bay ....73 % ( line increased from - 7.5 to - 9.5 )
Denver ....73 %  ( line steady -3 )
 
Buffalo Bills ...63 % ( line decreased from -6 to -5.5 )
 
These are the numbers and corresponding lines ( probably an average ) that this site has .
A closer look will reveal the following :
 
 # 1 ) Philadelphia is getting a bulk of the bets thus far , and will probably continue to get them . The line has remained at 7 in only half the books listed at covers , while the other half reflect the heavy money coming in on Seattle by dropping the line 1/2 point to - 6.5
 
# 2 )  Arizona is getting a high percentage of the bets , but the line while for the most part has remained steady , it has dropped in three sportsbooks to - 2.5 .....
$ coming in on St Louis ...despite the general betting populaton favoring Arizona
 
# 3 ) Atlanta remains a popular choice with the general betting public , however it is the Oakland Raiders that are getting some love or at least $ . This line has dipped to 2.5 in 4 different sportsbooks , and one has at 2 .
 
Jacksonville's line was set at a non-key number and the increase is not significant and there is not much interest in Cincinnati despite the high number .
 
Tampa Bay's line is bouncing from a key number if it was set at 7 ( though I suspect 7.5 is more likely in most places ) right into another # 10 ( one sportsbook has it ) . Clearly , no heavy bettors find Kansas City too enticing at the moment , so there is agreement .
Denver's line is moving off the key number 3 ( some 3.5's out there )  showing that Miami is not getting the same love by the savvy bettors that it got last week . The public seems to agree .
 
On Buffalo I am getting conflicting #'s on whether the line has increased or decreased from the opening bell , either way it's not worth a look based on non-key # that it got tagged with , and the percenatages  aren't significant either way .
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #6

I got the Giants at -8.5. Its the first time ive ever bet this early on a game but I couldnt resist. What are your thoughts on the game?

 
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I love the NY Giants team , but playing a divisional game and giving up that many points is not something I normally like to do.
 
If anything else , Dallas proved that they can  grind it out when desperate and win it on defense .
Wade Phillips had some input on the defensive side and it made a difference as Dallas allowed only 9 points to TB and no TD's .( First time that TB has been held to no TD's since the 2007 opener ) 
Despite their injuries , Dallas still ranks # 10 in the NFL on defense and they have played some decent offenses along the way .
NY giants are averaging about 27.3 poins this season , though against good defenses they only scored 21 and 16 points . ( Pitt & Wash ) The next best defense they faced was the one of the 49ers ranked 19th .
I figured NYG are good for 23 points vs Dallas .
Question is Can this injury depleted offense of the Cowboys score more than 2 TD's against this tough NY defense ?
They barely did against Tampa Bay , but with another week of preparation they just might . ( Despite the injury to Jason Witten ...and watch out for Roy Williams )
 
Dallas is also limiting their turnovers ( Romo loves those ) having not turned over the ball once against the tough TB defense ( First time this season Dallas has no T/O's )
 
The Under seems like a better play IMO
Cool trend : The Under is 10-1-1 in Dallas last 12 games in week 9
 
 
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Posted: #8
Week 9 :
 
Underdog trend Pick : Detroit Lions
 
trend ( s ) >>>
Teams favored by >= 10 are 1-12 ATS YTD
Play against Chicago Bears ( - 13 / 14 )
 
 
Underdog trend picks : ( 8-4 YTD )
 
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Posted: #9
Perfect Lines for BET (at pinnacle you can change the line but you get less juice, for those dont know this.)
 
Buffalo -3.5
Chicago -12.5
Jacksonville -6.5
Baltimore PICK
Kansas City +10.5
Minnesota -3.5
St Louis +4.5
Green Bay +7.5
Denver -2.5
NY Giants -6.5
Oakland +4.5
Philadelphia -6.5
Indianapolis -6.5
Washington PICK
 
if you find some book with this lines at -130 at least, let me know!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #10
GOOD HOME WORK
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
As usual, thanks for the info Roberto. Any post bye info? Found one for Minnesota,
Minnesota 5-1ats after bye.
 
Too back you up on the Detroit pick, found some more trends,
 
*Chicago as favorite of 10+points are 1-6ats since 1992
*Chicago as favorite of 10+points are 1-4ats last 3 years
*Underdog in this series is 7-2ats last 9 games
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #12
Keep up the good work man!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
I heard a rumor that BarryDingle31 is a jackass any thoughts on that or am i making this bigger than it is
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
BarryDingle- use the information hes posting to make YOUR OWN decisions...dont ever follow picks from wanna-be touts.
 
Roberto-
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by jap301:

I heard a rumor that BarryDingle31 is a jackass any thoughts on that or am i making this bigger than it is


Man, why don't you just lick his balls while you're down there person..

I'm trying to help people out here on covers by asking an honest question so that people who tail blindly can have a little warning before they go and lose their money
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:



Man, why don't you just lick his balls while you're down there person..

I'm trying to help people out here on covers by asking an honest question so that people who tail blindly can have a little warning before they go and lose their money


First of all, I'm a Prospect cause I I did not post a lot. I really enjoy what RF wrote each week. The same thing for all others in here .They read and see which trend is good or which one is not so they can pick their owns.
Lately, I see a lot of new member in the forum posting things that they should not post in this forum, I do not want to repeat again. By the way BarryDingle31, correct me if I'm wrong. Are you Asian?
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #17
Good Info Roberto
 
Veteran
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Week 9 :
 
Underdog trend Pick : Detroit Lions
 
trend ( s ) >>>
Teams favored by >= 10 are 1-12 ATS YTD
Play against Chicago Bears ( - 13 / 14 )

I'll definitely be playing the Lions this weekend. Double digit dogs have made me lots of money this year. 

Out of curiousity... anyone know who the 1 team that covered the 10+ was??? 
 
 
Underdog trend picks : ( 8-4 YTD )
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by mleavers2000:


That's weird, the way the quote posted. Anyone, this is my 2 cents. Anyone know who covered the 10+ in the 1 game.... I'm just curious now. 




"I'll definitely be playing the Lions this weekend. Double digit dogs have made me lots of money this year. 

Out of curiousity... anyone know who the 1 team that covered the 10+ was??? "
 
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Posted: #20
DD dogs in NFL are great plays
 
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Posted: #21
 
Here is the week by week ( and game by game breakdown of every one of those 13 games where a DD was involved in 2008 thus far  )
 
Week 1 >>
KC @ NE - 16
Final score : NE 17 -10 ( Diff + 9 )
0-1 ATS
 
Chi @ Indi -10
Final score : Chi 29-13 ( Diff + 16 )
0-2 ATS ( upset )
 
Week 2 >>
Caro @ Buff -10
Final score : Buff 24-23 ( Diff + 9 )
0-3 ATS
 
Cincy @ NYG -13
 Final score : NYG 26-23 ( OT ) ( Diff + 10 )
0-4 ATS
 
Miami @ NE -12.5
Final score : Miami 38-13 ( Diff + 37.5 )
0-5 ATS ( upset )
 
Week 3 >>
No games applied
 
Week 4 >>
Wash @ Dallas-10.5
Final score : Dallas 28-24 ( Diff + 6.5 )
0-6 ATS
 
Week 5 >>
Cincy @ Dallas- 16 
Final score : Dallas 31-22 ( Diff + 7 )
0-7 ATS
 
Week 6 >>
Stlouis @ Wash -12
Final score : STLouis 19-17 ( Diff + 14 )
0-8 ATS  ( upset )
 
Det @ Minn -13
 Final score Minn 12-10 ( Diff + 11 )
0-9 ATS
 
Week 7 >>
SF @ NYG -10
 Final score NYG 29-17 ( Diff - 2 )
1-9 ATS  ***
*** Note : Last score of the game was a safety for the cover )
J.T. O'Sullivan fumbled out of bounds in end zone for a safety
 
Det @ Hou - 11
 Final score Hou 28-21 ( Diff + 4 )
1-10 ATS
 
TB - 11 @ Seattle
Final score TB 20-10 ( Diff + 1 )
1-11 ATS
 
Week 8 >>
KC @ NYJ - 14
Final score NYJ 28-24 ( Diff + 10 )
1-12 ATS
 
Week 9 >>
Detroit @ Chicago - 13
Final score : ???
 
Summary : DD Favorites have gone 1-12 ATS YTD
 
The point differential from the lines has been an astronomical  133 points in 13 games .
This averages out to be a DD point differential of 10.2 points per game .
There have been 3 Upsets in this group and 5 out of the remaining 9 favorites that won but failed to cover won by 4 points or less .
 
While this does not in any way predict the future outcome of games where DD favorites are involved , it is a trend worth noting ...and an eye opener to say the least .
 
This is why Detroit was chosen as an  Underdog trend pick  of the week .
 
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Posted: #22
Love to read ur info every week...Great Info!!!
“Nothing has meaning except for the meaning you give it.”
 
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Posted: #23
Teams coming off their bye weeks :
Chicago , Denver , Green Bay , Minnesota
 
Teams with byes this week ( week 9 ) :
Carolina , New Orleans , San Diego , San Francisco
 
Teams playing playing their Pre-Bye week games :
Baltimore , Dallas , Tampa Bay , Washington
 
 
Significant Bye-week trends >>>
 
Denver holds the best Post-Bye record in two categories :
 
Denver is 15-3 SU ranked # 1 since 1992 in the NFL
Denver is 14-3-1 ATS ranked # 1 since 1992 in the NFL

Also the Over is 12-6 in Denver Post-Bye games ranked # 3 in NFL since 1992
 
More recently :
 
2007 >>> Denver beats Pitt 31-28 SU & ATS ( + 4 ) Game goes  Over the total by 21 points ( 38 )
2006 >>> Denver beats Baltimore 13-3 SU & ATS ( -5.5 ) Game goes Under the total by 17 points ( 33 )
2005 >>> Denver visits Oakland and beats them 31-17 SU & ATS ( - 3 ) Game goes Over the total by 1 point ( 47 )
2004 >>> Denver visits New Orleans and beats them 34-13 SU & ATS ( -6 ) Game goes Under the total by 1 point ( 48 )
2003 >>> Denver beats San Diego 37-8 SU & ATS ( - 8.5 ) Game goes Over  the total by 1 point ( 44 )
 
Denver last 5 : 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS
Over goes 3-2 with no significant pattern
 
********************
Dallas holds the # 2 position for Pre-Bye week games  in 3 categories :
 
Dallas is 14-4 SU ranked # 2 in Pre-Bye week games since 1992
Dallas is 13-5 ATS ranked # 2 in Pre-Bye week games since 1992
Also the Under is 11-5 ranked # 2 in Pre-bye week games since 1992
 
More recently :
 
2007 >> Dallas beats Minn 24-14 SU & ATS ( -9.5 )
Game goes Under the total by 7.5 points ( 44.5 )
 
2006 >> Dallas beats Washington 27-10 SU & ATS ( - 7 )
Total pushes ( 37 )
2005 >> Dallas beats Arizona 34-13 SU & ATS ( - 9.5 )
 Game goes Over the total by 7.5 points ( 39.5 )
2004 >> Dallas visits Washington and beats them 21-18 SU & ATS ( + 1.5 )
 Game goes Over the total by 2.5 points ( 36.5 )
 
2003 >> Dallas visits NYG and beats them 35-32 SU & ATS ( + 7 )
Game goes Over the total by 29.5 points ( 37.5 )
 
Dallas last 5 : 5-0 SU & 5-0  ATS last 5 Post-Bye games
Over is 3-1-1 last 5 Post-Bye games ( Last 2 games did not go over )
 
Washington is 5-12 ATS ranked # 31 in Pre-Bye week games since 1992
More recently :
Washington is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS last 5 Pre-Bye games
 
The recent results for Washington don't back the Longer term trends as well as in the case with Dallas & Denver
 
Week 9  Featured Pre-Bye game :
Dallas + 9 @ NY Giants
 
Week 9 Featured  Post-Bye game :
Miami @ Denver - 3.5
 
***********************************************
 
 
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Random trends : >>>
 
Denver is 14-3-1 ATS after a bye week
New England  is 1-10 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards
Buffalo is 2-14 ATS following a Miami game
 
Under is 10-1-1 in Atlanta games on week 9
Under is is 10-1-1 in Dallas games on week 9
Over is 11-1 in GB games on grass
Over is 15-2 in GB games following an ATS win
Over is 13-3 last 17 Denver Home games
 
A closer look at Bill's Jinx ( the game following a Miami game ) since year 2000
 
2007 >>
@ Cleveland Lost  0-8 SU & ATS ( + 4 )
vs New England  Lost  10-56 SU & ATS ( + 16 )
2006 >>
vs New York Jets  Lost  20-28 SU & ATS ( - 6 )
vs Tennessee Lost  29-30 SU & ATS ( - 5.5 )
2005 >>
vs New York Jets  Won 27-17  SU & ATS ( -3 )
vs New England  Lost 7-35  SU & ATS ( + 4.5 )
2004 >>
@ Baltimore  Lost 6-20 SU & ATS ( + 4.5 )
vs Cleveland Won 37-17 SU & ATS ( -3 )
2003 >>
Vs Philadelphia Lost 13-23  SU & ATS ( -3 )
@ New England Lost 0-31 SU & ATS ( + 9.5 )
2002 >>
vs Detroit Won 24-17 SU & Lost ATS ( -7.5 )
@ New England Lost 17-27  SU & ATS ( + 3.5 )
2001 >>
@ San Francisco Lost 0-35  SU & ATS ( + 8.5 )
vs NY Jets Lost 31-37 SU & ATS ( + 3 )
2000 >>
vs San Diego Won 27-24 SU & Lost ATS ( -10 )
@ Indianapolis Lost 20-44 SU & ATS ( + 7 )
 
There you have it .
That's a mayor hangover the Bills have.
2-14 ATS
4-12 SU
Bills after playing Miami last week are hosting the NY Jets on week 9  and are presently - 5.5 favorites .
 
*************************************
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
 
Another team with a strong Post-Bye week trend involves the Minnesota  Vikings
Other than a game @ Chicago in 2005 the Vikings have gone over every year since the 1998 season making a 9-1 Over run .
 
In addition :
Over is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 home games following an ATS loss
Over is 7-1 in Vikings last 8 games in week 9
Over is 8-1 in Houston last 9 games
 
Game : Houston @ Minnesota
" total " >>> 47 / 46.5
 
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