Posted:
#51
Thx for info BOL 
Trends & Things week 6 NFL 2009
Posted:
#61
i copy and paste some of the trends & stats I discocer across the web , and usually state so when I do...but the idea for this thread and mayority of its content is mine and mine alone...
I use covers lines as posted on their scoreboard to keep it consistent..
Doing this allows me to find my handicapping angle ....and that's the goal ...I can break into the black already without any props , but not by much ...so I am tryng an inexpensive trial and error method to get to a higher percentage consistently...
No matter what , i am happy to share some of the process with you all...
You have to think outside the box and take a few hits along the way.
Let's have some fun in the meantime !
I am glad a lot of you find some usefullness to all of this ...
I am trying to consolidate information so that it is easier to digest ...
Eventually , you may find this type of information readily available somewhere , instead of everywhere....
Posted:
#63
Trend picks :
I am sticking with the Favorites after bye-week trend for the remainder of the season.
This trend will overide other trends that teams falling in this category may have against them.
So ....I will ignore the trends going on behalf of the NYG , because the New Orleans Saints are favored after a bye-week.
I will ignore the trends going against Green Bay laying DD points , because Green Bay is favored after a bye-week.
I will ignore any recent trends favoring Denver on MNF , because San Diego is favored coming off their bye-week...
Pretty simple....
Odds say 2 out of those 3 will win ...so they come in a bundle and that's that .
As long as this trend continues to hit at a high percenatge , there will be no reason not to follow it ...
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Diego
are all trend picks for wek 6
I will see to add dog(s) pick(s) and totals trend picks ....
**********************************************
Posted:
#67
Philadelphia is another trend pick
strongest NFC vs AFC trend representative on the board....
that much is clear...
also The Eagles are 10-0 ATS in October vs. less than .500 opponents coming off a road game
as you may know someone on covers has Oakland on a 28-0 system play or something to that effect ....I can't validate that , but it's been posted...you may post the link if you like ...
from Bigwhip >>>
Cleveland:
2-9 last 11 vs Pitt
1-10 off win now vs div opp
2-5 after score less than 7 points
0-6 after they allow less than 10
1-9 off a win vs div opp off non div game
1-9 when sub .500 and off a win
Pitt:
22-11 October home and favorite
8-2 off non div game vs div opp w/revenge
12-0 as div fav's vs sub .500 opp off non div win
10-2 over .500 home fav off win vs div opp off win
Green Bay:
2-9 home vs opp w/revenge off a loss
0-12 11+ favorite
1-10 as fav's in 2nd of back 2 back div games vs opp off back 2 back losses
1-4 vs div off bye week
Houston:
9-2 2nd of back to back rd games
9-2 less than 10 pt dog off loss
6-1 dog off non div loss
19-4 as a rd dog off a loss vs opp who is over .500
Cincy:
1-11 in October after a div game vs sub .500 opp
2-8 home in October off a win
11-22 October home
5-12 October favorite
Pittsburgh is added as a trend pick
Houston is added as a trend pick
|
topher79 offers these stats to back his weekly pick on the
Kansas City Chiefs >>>
The league is 0-20 ATS since October 29, 2006 at home when a less than 10 point favorite the week after a loss as an away dog which the led at half. That would be the Skins.
Redskins 0-8 ATS since November 20, 2005 at home when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.
The league is 12-0-1 ATS since November 21 1999 the game after an overtime loss at home as a dog in which they led at halftime. That would be the Chiefs.
Game : Kansas City @ Washington
Line : Kansas City + 6/6.5
I posted this as there are trends involved
*********************************************** |
Posted:
#68
Kansas City is added as a trend pick...
This series has been dominated by the underdog in years' past, with the 'dog putting together a 9-1 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bills have been the right side at the Meadowlands in this span, going 4-1 ATS, including a cover in a SU loss last season.
The Jets haven't fared well after playing the Dolphins, compiling a 2-8 ATS mark the last 10 following a contest against Miami.
Buffalo is added as a trend pick
MIN is 4-12 ATS at home after an away game; 0-1 TY
The Vikings are 4-12-1 ATS following a SU win of 14+ points.
Baltimore is a trend pick selection ....
Trend Picks week 6 >>>
Favorites :
Green Bay , New Orleans, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
Underdogs :
Baltimore , Buffalo, kansas City, Houston
you guys pick the totals ...I am too tired
My personal pick of the week is on the
New Orleans Saints - 3 ( 2 unit play )
Posted:
#71
DYNAMITE WORK MY MAN!
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:
as u said 2 outa 3 should hit, why not for fun and money hit a 10 point tease to lean those heavy trends in your favor in what should seem like a garantee. ive played 4 10 teasers(3 games) and 4 13 point teasrs (4 games) and have been perfect. as for my straight plays im 3 and 4.
Trend picks :
I am sticking with the Favorites after bye-week trend for the remainder of the season.
This trend will overide other trends that teams falling in this category may have against them.
So ....I will ignore the trends going on behalf of the NYG , because the New Orleans Saints are favored after a bye-week.
I will ignore the trends going against Green Bay laying DD points , because Green Bay is favored after a bye-week.
I will ignore any recent trends favoring Denver on MNF , because San Diego is favored coming off their bye-week...
Pretty simple....
Odds say 2 out of those 3 will win ...so they come in a bundle and that's that .
As long as this trend continues to hit at a high percenatge , there will be no reason not to follow it ...
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Diego
are all trend picks for wek 6
I will see to add dog(s) pick(s) and totals trend picks ....
**********************************************
please dont think im here tooting my horn thats not it at all, just bumpn those % even higher.as you know all it takes is a goofy turn over or last minute mercy touchdown to blow the right wager...
anyway iv lost 2 much money on straight plays 4 the reason posted above and and this has allowed me 2 get lots of action without lots of risk cause i do have a prob with limiting my plays so its kinda a 2 for 1 fix that works 4 me...and allows me 2 puta larger amount instead of spreading it around on unsure plays cause im a junker.
again thx for all your hard work your doin all of us here a huge favor by pulling so much info and sorting it into 1 thread
my 4 game monster tease ,
pitt -1
phili -1/2
g.b -1
balt +16
gl to you and please keep doin what your doin
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