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Trends & Things Week 2 NFL 2008

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Posted: #51
By Steve Makiken + Kramer ( Cappers mall team ) >>>


- Home teams that allowed more than 35 points in their first game are 2-14 ATS (13%) in the week 2 contest, including 0-4 ATS (0%) as an underdog

Plays for ‘08: AGAINST St. Louis ( NY Giants ) , AGAINST Houston ( Baltimore )
 
- Home teams that allowed 35 or more Points in week 1 are 
2-11 ATS (15%) in week 2 when matched against an opponent who scored more than 14 points in week 1
 
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST St Louis ( NY Giants ) , AGAINST Houston ( Baltimore )
 
- Home teams that lost the opener by a double-digit margin are 14-22 ATS (39%) in their week 2 game.
 
Plays for ‘08: AGAINST Detroit ( Green Bay ) , AGAINST St Louis ( NY Giants ) , AGAINST Seattle ( San Francisco ) , AGAINST Houston ( Baltimore ) , AGAINST Cleveland ( Pittsburgh )

 Home teams with a week 1 scoring differential advantage of 25 points or more than the road team are 12-2 ATS (86%) in week 2
Plays for ‘08: Denver
************************************


 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
thanks for the info
 
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Posted: #53

Betting Road Favorites ( source )

One of the most profitable wagers for NFL bettors over the last 10 years has been betting against big road favorites who have been favored by more than 7 points.
Since 1997 there have been 107 games on the NFL schedule in which the oddsmakers have set the road team as a favorite by 7 or more points. The overall  record of the road favorites is   38-63-3 ATS . If you had been going against the favorite in all of these games for the past 10 years, you would have been paid off nearly 63% of the time.

Last season there were 10 games in which the team was favored by more than 7 points. In those 10 games the road favorite only covered the spread twice. ( 2-8 ATS ) & ( 6-4 SU )

In four of those games the big road favorite actually lost SU . Here's a rundown of the 10 games that fit the formula from last season:


Indianapolis (-8) at NY Jets - Final score: Colts 31 - Jets 28
Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Cowboys 45 - Titans 14
San Diego (-10) at San Francisco - Final score: Chargers 48 - 49ers 19
Chicago (-13) at Arizona - Final score: Bears 24 - Cardinals 23
Jacksonville (-8) at Houston - Final score: Texans 27 - Jaguars 7
Pittsburgh (-9) at Oakland - Final score: Raiders 20 - Steelers 13
Baltimore (-7.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Ravens 27 - Titans 26
Denver (-8) at Oakland - Final score: Broncos 17 - Raiders 13
Indianapolis (-7.5) at Tennessee - Final score: Titans 20 - Colts 17
Indianapolis (-9.5) at Houston - Final score: Texans 27 - Colts 24

This week your road favorites are :

NY Giants - 8.5 / 9 @ St Louis

with Pittsburgh ( very close)  -6.5 @ Cleveland

Comment : 5 of those losses 8 losses ATS involved teams in the AFC South last year ....

I think you have to make a decision over time if you will honor this stat or not ...But you can't zig-zag ...

You disregard it ( you are going against monster odds ) , you are aware of it ...and stay away from a fav you like ...or you embrace it when you like the dog involved and bet accordingly ...

 ..Good to know ...

 
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Posted: #54
Very Good to know, Mr. Fiory
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #55
so u think PIT and NYG are bad picks i would assume? 
 
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Posted: #56
Underdog trends:
Cleveland 0-4-1 last 5 against Pitts
Balt is 3-7 ATS last 10 Sept games
Miami is 0-6-2 past 8 Sept games
Philly is 7-1 ATS is past 8 games as underdog
 
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Posted: #57
Thanks for the info!
Regarding my fav team... I will take the points for the first time, in a long time... I see this one as a final around 21-17 in the Pats favor outright...
BARRYDINGLE-  you sir have absolutely no effin clue!
 
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Posted: #58
Random >>>>
 
 
San Diego: 12-3 ATS vs. conference
Denver: 7-17 ATS playing with 6 or less days rest
reinforces >>
SD is 12-3-2 ATS off SU loss  ( 16-5-2 ATS off SU loss as fav )
SD is 13-4 ATS as < 3.5 Dogs
 
Denver is 9-0 SU last 9 openers ( won vs SD in 2005 )

Pittsburgh: 0-7 ATS after scoring 35+ point
Pittsburgh : 1-8 ATS  against a division opponent off a DD loss
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS off SU loss
reinforces >>>
Cleveland is 15-2 ATS after allowing 27 points or more
Cleveland is 10-1 ATS vs a team with winning record
 
Tennessee: 12-2 ATS Away off home division win
Cincinnati: 5-15 ATS after allowing 200+ rushing yards
but  :
Fav is 11-2 SU in Titans-Cincy games ( Cincy -1 )
 
St. Louis Rams are 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS versus winning teams under head coach Scott Linehan
reinforces : NY Giants stromg trends like
NY Giants are 14-2 ATS vs NFC
NY Giants are 19-7 ATS last 26 road games
( this week playing St Louis on the road )
St Louis is 1-10 ATS vs a team with a winning record
St Louis is 0-4 ATS last 4 meetings
Home teams that allowed more than 35 points in their first game are 2-14 ATS (13%) in the week 2 contest, including 0-4 ATS (0%) as an underdog
 
BUT...>>since 1997 The overall  record of road favorites of 7 or more points is   38-63-3 ATS, including  2-8 ATS last year ...
 
Kansas City: 23-8 Under 1st two weeks of season
 
Jacksonville: 13-3 Over off road game
reinforces >>
Over is 10-1-2 in Jags vs teams with winning records
 
Tampa Bay: 26-6 Under 1st 2 Weeks of season
reinforces > Under is 13-3  in Atlanta games after a SU Dog win
 
 
Update
 
 
Cleveland + points ( over Pittsburgh )
Buff @ Jack Over
Atl @ TB Under


 
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Posted: #59
Great Thread
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Over/Unders >>
 
Over is 22-6-1 in Bears last 29 vs AFC
 
Bears are playing an NFC team not AFC.
 
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Posted: #61
gl roberto
 
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Posted: #62

Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

Bears are playing an NFC team not AFC.

 

Thank You . Correction is :

  • Over is 22-6-1 in Bears last 29 vs. NFC.
    •  
    Captain
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    Posted: #63
    Bet Tracker ...highlighting teams getting 75 % of the action
     
    Earlier in the week >>>
     
    1) Pittsburgh .........90 %
    2) Green Bay ........85 %
    3) Indianapolis .......84 %
    4) New Orleans .....77 %
    5) NYG................. 76 %
    6)  Atlanta...............75 %
     
    Friday >>>
     
    1) New orleans ......77 %       >>> same
    2) Pittsburgh ..........76 %        >>>down
    3) Green Bay ...........75 %      >>>> down
     
    4) Indianapolis ..........70 %       >>down
    5) Atlanta .................68%       >>>down
    6) Arizona ...............67%        >>>Up
     
    Saturday >>>
     
    1) New Orleans ......76 %
    1) Pittsburgh ..........76 %
    2) Green Bay ..........75 %
     
    3) Buffalo ................72 %  >> on the move
    4) Indianapolis ........70 %
     
    Final Update Sunday >>
     
    1) NY Giants ...........75 % ( takes top dog , last week it was Cincy ...L)
     
    2) Pittsburgh ..........73 %
    2) New Orleans ......73 %
    3) Kansas City .......71 % ( newcomer )
    4) Indianapolis........70 %
     
    For all its worth two minute warning has bet tracker's best bet with Cleveland + 6 as they use the percentages from earlier  in the week rather than Sunday's. Such picks have hit @ 60 % over a 6 year span and 0-1 YTD...
     
     
     
     
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    Posted: #64
    Needless to say , the above is a contarian strategy ...
    so Cleveland's pick this week is a result of Pittsburgh getting most of the action earlier in the week . They feel those #'s are best for a contrarian to public pick ...
    I will track the team that gets the late action ...the clubhouse leader on Sunday , and such team was Cincinnati last week who lost ( Baltimore wins ATS ) and this week it is the NY Giants .
    So, we'll see what happens...
     
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    Posted: #65
    you sticking with just those 3 plays?
     
    Captain
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    Posted: #66
    As much as I may like them ( NY Giants )  and individual trends back them ,with the pathetic record that Road favorites have had over the years , including 2-8 ATS last year ...It is not possible to ignore the futility of backing these teams overtime.
    Clearly , they have all been far superior teams or they would not have been Big Road favorites to begin with ...
    Out of 107 games ...only 38 of these " far superior " teams have covered the spread in a span of 10 years.
    Who wants to battle those odds ?
    This is when you have to choose what kind of capper you are ...
     
    NY Giants have this tremendous road record , super record against NFC teams , defending champions , looked solid last week ...and they are going against a team that has a 1-10 ATS vs teams with a winning record ...among other very bad trends ...
    The Giants are also getting 3 to 1 action as they should ...
    the spread is still about half a point lower than opening ...
     
    I can't endorse the obvious choice here ...
     
    You remind yourself ...you don't take Road Favorites of 7 or more , because your odds of winning are not very good ...and that's that ..
     
     
    Banned
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    Posted: #67
    GL Roberto...Only 3 plays?
     
     
    Legend
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    Posted: #68
    Good luck  Roberto...
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