To hedge or not to hedge

Atl -10 last leg in 3teamer $500 to win $3000

I understand hedging is the smart play, its safe, a free roll.... But Jets taking 10,with rookie QB, all his Wrs are banged up, at a rowdy stadium, under the big lights of MNF vs a team that is literally in a must win.... Ugh, feeks I'm throwing away money...

Would a better hedge be to tease ATL and the total (which way? Under?ATL is good for 28pts,low end IMO, Jets, ummm, 10ish)
What's the play here guys?

Thanks in advance....

Don't be greedy.. anything can happen, I would bet $500 on NYJ.. at least you get your cost back

You made the bet for the big payout.... Let it ride.

I say 500 on jets too! So it's 2500 winner or push day!!

I won a huge 8-way parlay and 5-way round robin last night with Oakland as the last leg. Didn't hedge and it was the right call. Hedged an 8-way two weeks ago which was the right call (CHI vs PIT).

It really depends on your bankroll. Are you okay with losing $500? What % is $1750 to your bankroll?

The experienced guys will tell you not to hedge by saying you shouldn't have bet the 3rd game in the first place. I think there is more to it and it is a judgement call.

My lean and likely play will be on ATL-10.

Cool cool, I appreciate the honest info.

I'm not getting mad at losing $500 (wel, not real mad)

Gonna go for the payday....

Covers bro's are rad. Thanks.

Since you already made your decision here are some trends that support it. But keep in mind, ATL-10 is a huge public play today. 75% Public.

Week 1 Both Dogs won, Public Fades
Week 2 Cin-6 Fave won, 70% Public Won
Week 3 Den-14.5 Fave won, 70% Public Won
Week 4 Nor-5.5 Fave won, 75% Public Won

MNF: Jets at Atlanta (-10)

Atlanta:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 26 games since start of last season

Matt Ryan 35-8 SU at home

Coach Smith 35-21 ATS as favorite

The next game after a loss: Atlanta has covered 21 of 25!
Off a loss of 6 or more points: Mike Smith 16-0 ATS

Jets: Away underdog off road loss: 61% league-wide since 2003

3 TDs yielded last week by Jets were from drives less than 27 yards.

or consider hedging second half. might find a sweet spot to win both bets.

i had oregon -38 in the last leg of a 5 teamer. by half time i just needed 11 more for the cover and saw that colorado was getting +15 second half. oregon ended up winning second half by 14 so i cleaned both bets.

Well s..hit... After reading my post "I won't get mad at losing $500" I feel like a moron.

We all play to make profit. Dime on Jets (I can't believe I just wrote that)

Win $500 or win $2000 (juice aside) Its just the right play. Thanks again for making this decision easier.

Best of luck dudes.

Gonna hedge my hedge.

Teaser: Atl -4 Under 50 $1000 to win $909

Whatever. One thing is certain, i will be VERY hungover Tuesday. Hopefully happy hungover.

I agree with dcowboys advice.....you made the bet for the pig payout so get it !

hedging is for landscapers

Hedge your bet.  Place a 1k bet the other way.  You win money regardless of what happens but if atl covers you win 2k and if they lose you still win 500.  it is like you placed a single bet on atl for atl.  you still get a chance to get the satisfaction of being right.  I am on board with your pick.  you dont want to be in the situation of regretting your decision.  feeling bad about losing 1k is better than the feeling of losing 3500.

In the end this isnt about glory of hitting a big 3 teamer, this is about money (or else you are in this for the wrong reaason)

$750 on Jets, you profit $250 or $2250...take guaranteed money whenever you can.

 

BOL with whatever you choose

If your hedge works, take your $250 and do it again next weekend

Let it ride....why put Atlanta on in the first place to just hedge?  I don't understand why bettors do this

You dont understand why people hedge?

To guarantee profit or less of a loss? What don't you understand?

 

Last year I had a 8 team parlay..I hit my first 7, the 7th being the ravens when ray rice had that crazy 4th and 29...the last leg of the parlay was the Giants/Packers SNF...I had the pack.  My bet was 75 to win 5,400.  I put $1,000 on the Giants.  Giants blew pack out of the water and I profited $925 instead of losing $75.  Granted 75 is not a big loss, why would i not lock in profit?

Again, I personally would not hedge.  However, I certainly understand why someone would hedge and would not hold that against them.