Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Weir, very weir game, kicker missed 4 EPA, Brady played like he is lost somewhere in the jungle.Yeah.....sorry to see that....he deserves a better send off, though I have always thought he should've retired permanently after the TB superbowl victory. sad end to a fine career Drive it downfield then FAILURE!
sad
prolly fail again
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Weir, very weir game, kicker missed 4 EPA, Brady played like he is lost somewhere in the jungle.Yeah.....sorry to see that....he deserves a better send off, though I have always thought he should've retired permanently after the TB superbowl victory. sad end to a fine career Drive it downfield then FAILURE!
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Beside that TB +3 play, I also have Dallas +7.5 and under 55.5 teaser. Well that's a decent consolation prize. Tomorrow maybe we can compare notes on some key Divisional stats.
Only one unit for that teaser, with Jags +18.5 in the third and final leg of a 10 points teaser. But loss has occurred for me tonight.
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Beside that TB +3 play, I also have Dallas +7.5 and under 55.5 teaser. Well that's a decent consolation prize. Tomorrow maybe we can compare notes on some key Divisional stats.
Only one unit for that teaser, with Jags +18.5 in the third and final leg of a 10 points teaser. But loss has occurred for me tonight.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Beside that TB +3 play, I also have Dallas +7.5 and under 55.5 teaser. Well that's a decent consolation prize. Tomorrow maybe we can compare notes on some key Divisional stats. Only one unit for that teaser, with Jags +18.5 in the third and final leg of a 10 points teaser. But loss has occurred for me tonight.
Ah well, new week now. You'll get it back and then some!
2
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Beside that TB +3 play, I also have Dallas +7.5 and under 55.5 teaser. Well that's a decent consolation prize. Tomorrow maybe we can compare notes on some key Divisional stats. Only one unit for that teaser, with Jags +18.5 in the third and final leg of a 10 points teaser. But loss has occurred for me tonight.
Ah well, new week now. You'll get it back and then some!
since you post so many large chalk bets it might be useful to the forum to know how those panned out in units. I have taken the liberty to research your posted regular season picks and added the resulting units you weren't listing. Don't take offense as I believe this info completes a picture and might be useful to some members or lurkers.
since you post so many large chalk bets it might be useful to the forum to know how those panned out in units. I have taken the liberty to research your posted regular season picks and added the resulting units you weren't listing. Don't take offense as I believe this info completes a picture and might be useful to some members or lurkers.
Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS
• Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years
• Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance!
• any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ...
• all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS
• Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years
• Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance!
• any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ...
• all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS • Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance! • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ... • all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)
• small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS • Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance! • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ... • all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)
• small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS • Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance! • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ... • all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat) • small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover
• home favs of between -5 and -8.5 odds have won outright 26 - 9 but 16 - 18 to cover (Eagles and Bills qualify)
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS • Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance! • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ... • all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat) • small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover
• home favs of between -5 and -8.5 odds have won outright 26 - 9 but 16 - 18 to cover (Eagles and Bills qualify)
all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)
67% winning rate, that's not to shabby for the home teams. On the against the spread side, this year could either be 2-2 or 3-1. That's what I'm speculating.
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat)
67% winning rate, that's not to shabby for the home teams. On the against the spread side, this year could either be 2-2 or 3-1. That's what I'm speculating.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS • Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance! • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ... • all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat) • small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover • home favs of between -5 and -8.5 odds have won outright 26 - 9 but 16 - 18 to cover (Eagles and Bills qualify)
• HEAVY home favs of -9 and up (Chiefs) have struggled! winning outright 10 - 6 but 7 - 9 to cover
Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)
Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game. This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport. Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5. No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team!
This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road.
These two teams are very close when this is considered.
4
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: #1 seeds this year: EAGLES and CHIEFS • Over the last 20 years a #1 seed has been upset in 10 of those 20 years • Out of 40 #1 seed games, 13 have been upset, BUT 27 - 13 to advance! • any seed that enters the Divisional round carrying a NEGATIVE point differential from the regular season (NYG this year) is only 2 - 9 to advance more later ... • all Home favs are 49 - 24 su past 20 years (Note, all the home teams this weekend qualify under that stat) • small home favs up to -4.5 (Niners qualify) have won outright 13 - 9 but 9 - 13 to cover • home favs of between -5 and -8.5 odds have won outright 26 - 9 but 16 - 18 to cover (Eagles and Bills qualify)
• HEAVY home favs of -9 and up (Chiefs) have struggled! winning outright 10 - 6 but 7 - 9 to cover
Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)
Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game. This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport. Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5. No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team!
This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road.
These two teams are very close when this is considered.
Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)
Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game. This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport. Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5. No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team!
This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road.
These two teams are very close when this is considered.
• HOMIES with a "significantly higher" pts differential are 37 - 15 su
(EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!)
3
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats:
Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)
Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game. This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport. Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5. No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team!
This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road.
These two teams are very close when this is considered.
• HOMIES with a "significantly higher" pts differential are 37 - 15 su
(EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!)
This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road. These two teams are very close when this is considered.
i make this matchup to b almost dead even
i would rate it a pickem on a neutral field !
but line is trending up on bills
"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road. These two teams are very close when this is considered.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks) Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game. This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport. Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5. No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team! This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road. These two teams are very close when this is considered.
• HOMIES with a "significantly higher" pts differential are 37 - 15 su
(EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!)
• HOMIES with a "MASSIVELY higher" pts differential are 20 - 6 su
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats: Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks) Also, fellas, let us keep in mind going forward in future playoff years, that we now have 17 game schedules. Meaning the stats of HALF the teams will benefit from playing one extra home game, while the other HALF must be measured against being forced to play an extra ROAD game. This is a critical consideration in my handicapping of every sport. Fictional example: two teams have identical 7 - 7 records and nearly the same pt. differential.....but the ROAD team achieved that playing 2 extra road games and the HOME team benefited from 2 extra home games - and this fortunate home team is favored -3.5. No brainer for me. The road team is likely the better team! This year, 12 - 4 Bengals (in reg. season) only benefited from playing 7 home games against 9 on the road and despite that they still managed a very respectable +96 pts differential! Yes, the 13 - 3 Bills have a significantly higher pts differential but those stats were aided by getting to play 1 more home game than Bengals and 1 less on the road. These two teams are very close when this is considered.
• HOMIES with a "significantly higher" pts differential are 37 - 15 su
(EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!)
• HOMIES with a "MASSIVELY higher" pts differential are 20 - 6 su
• HOMIES with a "MASSIVELY higher" pts differential are 20 - 6 su (EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!) I expect to post my bets soon....just going over injury status updates
• the Divisional playoff teams that finished with a better regular season record are 43 - 24 subut 30 - 38 to cover
(Note, all the home teams this weekend do qualify under that stat)
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
• HOMIES with a "MASSIVELY higher" pts differential are 20 - 6 su (EAGLES qualify under this stat but the moneyline is HIGH!) I expect to post my bets soon....just going over injury status updates
• the Divisional playoff teams that finished with a better regular season record are 43 - 24 subut 30 - 38 to cover
(Note, all the home teams this weekend do qualify under that stat)
This game is going to be played wet! We're likely looking at a rain/snow mix, or rain transitioning over to some snow late-game, but regardless it's wet, and while it's never a true downpour the steady light/moderate rains should eventually make for soaking wet conditions.
Cold and wet
(from rotogrinders)
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"Weather" you like it or not . . .
JAC @ KC -
This game is going to be played wet! We're likely looking at a rain/snow mix, or rain transitioning over to some snow late-game, but regardless it's wet, and while it's never a true downpour the steady light/moderate rains should eventually make for soaking wet conditions.
Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)
• When the HOME FAV faces an underdog, that won 4 or fewer games than the home team (reg season), the HOME FAV only covered 8 - 7 ATS...........but won su 13 - 2
Both the Chiefs(-495) and Eagles(-375) are in this scenario!
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Interesting DIVISONAL PLAYOFF betting stats:
Note, all my DIVISIONAL playoff stats DO NOT INCLUDE the covid year, 2020/21 (yr with no fans in home parks)
• When the HOME FAV faces an underdog, that won 4 or fewer games than the home team (reg season), the HOME FAV only covered 8 - 7 ATS...........but won su 13 - 2
Both the Chiefs(-495) and Eagles(-375) are in this scenario!
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