Tnf discussions.. mia +3.5?

Burrow isn't Lamar!

Miami rush attack is a big joke...

Depends on Tua status....

Personally..I think miracles are over for Fish but they are 3-0 for a reason

U guys overthinking this...If TUA and Waddle plays, which it looks like it..The over 47 has the best value IMOH... Don't be fooled but the Bengals defense..Who the Fak have they played offensively...Trubiscuit who can't even hit a wide open WR...Copper Rush? Making a backup start and was cut this season by the Cowboys and out for 1 month..Joe Flacco??......Looks like the majority of the board is on the Bengals...Don't be surprised if the Dolphins win.....They are 3-0 for a reason and seems like everyone is doubting them again..

Also Dolphins have a top 10 defense...When u play 2 top offenses like the Bills and Ravens you will give up yards... Just keep in mind the Dolphins are 11-1 last 12 games going back to last season....They know how to win games ...

@davemsh

 Then why did this line go from -1.5 to -4??

Narrative..Short week/TNF home team has the advantage...Dolphins D 90 plays on a hot humid day..Comeback vs the Ravens and just won a game vs the Super Bowl Favorites...But more importantly Tua's back..Dolphins also had a lot of players on the injury report - Waddle/X Howard.....Once they announce Tua is playing...line will go back down to 3 IMOH....

Also Tua's back...He is not a runner like Lamar or Allen..He plays in the pocket and does not even run...He came back in the 2nd half after the injury/concussion and was fine...They will give him a shot to his back and he will be fine on Thursday

@davemsh

 Narrative???....Is that all you have? Do you think all of those beautiful casinos they have built in LV were built on narratives. Money moves point spreads...not narratives.....

@davemsh

 What is your opinion on the Tua injury? I know that we are not doctors, but after banging his head on the turf, I saw him shake his head, like getting the cobwebs out. Then the dude almost keeled over. 

Any chance the Phins held this back? Let him get right and threw him back in?

I'm not saying that he doesn't have a back injury, but it could of been the alibi at the moment. 

For the record I'm staying away from this game. Initial lean right away was Cinci, they opened under 3, now they are at 4. If I were one of those early bettors on Cinci, I'd be taking the Phins +4 to go for the middle. 

According to Vegas Insider:  Today

Money: bengals 84%

          Dolphins 14%

Could be a concussion but also the back injury looks like it is true.....There was a play at the goal line the previous drive where they did a QB sneak...and TUA got bent back and he came up a little gimpy... Hopefully he plays..But I would assume once they announce all the key players playing for the Dolphins tomorrow..the line will go back down to 3 IMOH... Keep in mind the offense only played 39 total plays on Sunday and so they are fresh on that side of the ball..but it all depends on if Tua is a go...

Not much defense is played on a Thursday night....more zone defenses and running in the last few years....the Thursday trend used to be OVERS hitting but last couple of years, UNDER due to sloppy play and execution...lots of punting, FG attempts

I'm on the UNDER. Both trend this way 2 out of 3 games and if Bridgewater is in, and Miami puts pressure on a weak Bengals O-line, you should cash a ticket UNDER 45.5 or higher 

@njsupreme1

 fade the steam..winning long run

@njsupreme1

 Of course I understand lines fam I’m just stating a fact of what the Public square looks at.

This line movement was based on Tua's status. There is a huge dropoff between Tua and Teddy.

I think post #34 is the cause of the line move.

As of right now, Tua is starting. He hasn't been ruled out.

If he's ruled out you'll see the line get taken down, and then re open with a new #.

Last Sunday Smoke and Mirrors

Buffalo 31 1st downs 

Miami 15 1st downs 

Then you look at Miami's 21 point comeback vs Raven's 4th Quarter kinda of a fluke 

They beat the Patriots big deal , look for them to start losing a few now .

I wouldn't base an under on Bridgewater I like him better than Tua especially after Tua starts getting hit I think he's soft,  once you hit him the passes get shorter and the production goes down . if I knew Bridgewater was starting I wouldn't like the Bengals so much.

Agreed....

Teams that win and cover games that they are statistically beaten in usually drop the next one....

I'm not a believer in the Miami offense ....

They got 21 versus Buff although one was a JA gift.....

Bungles 2nd Primetime game should be a reversal of fortune.....

Tua will most likely start but I can see Bengals going after him hard and early especially with the lack of a rungame.....

Bol

@Duderonomy

I disagree with this.  If the Books were that concerned about Tua's status, the game woulda been off the board.  It was one of the biggest stories of the day..."what's Tua doing back in the game, that was obviously a concussion, but they're saying his back?  what?"  The Books knew Tua's status was in question by half time of that game, like 5 minutes after his wobbly melt down.  And something else the Books know?  Teddy Bridgewater is 42-20-1 ATS in career starts.  That's right people, pretty much the best record of anyone ever with that amount of games or more.  Quirky?  Yes.  But for one game, for this game, I don't think Teddy would be a huge drop off (and I believe the Books don't think so either).  Kinda feel like everyone is "crowing his ass" (Tua) because of ONE 4th quarter of play.  He has a long way to go. 

https://bookies.com/nfl/picks/ranking-every-starting-nfl-qb-record-against-spread

Good Luck All

The dolphins injury report is like a CVS receipt..there are a lot of LP Tuesday Wednesday for Miami..they may have a good amount of those players play but they are all playing banged up it’s definitely not going to be the same dolphins team we saw versus the bills..there’s definitely a possibility of injury re-aggravations coming up in game obviously depending on the type of injury..that’s just my opinion especially on a short turn around.. Bengals may not be as talented as the dolphins but they are healthier..

This incorrect but very popular analysis is the answer to the question, "why is a 3-0 team getting points against a 1-2 team?"

If you're disagreeing that there is a huge dropoff between QB1 and QB2 on Miami, then we won't see eye to eye on much, I suspect. He out-played Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen the past two weeks. If you don't know that, you don't know much about the QB position. He'll out-play Joe Burrow tomorrow, if he plays.

Tua is now 10-1 his last 11 starts (which doesn't even include his win coming off the bench against the Ravens last year). He is 16-8 as a starter, which is a better career win % than any QB in the league under 30 years of age. He is the only QB to ever go 4-0 against Belicheck, and I believe 7-1 against Super Bowl coaches. He currently ranks in the top 5 of every passing category (top 2 in most), despite playing against the most difficult schedule in the NFL through 3 weeks.

If you think Miami could have won that game last week without Tua coming back in the game in the 2nd half, you are out of your mind!

Tua had nothing to do with Josh throwing the ball at the ground like a pop Warner reject

I'm no Tua hater.  I'm in one fantasy league, he's my QB and Waddle is my WR2.  And we don't need to debate who knows more about what.

Allen had all kinds of "old Josh Allen" desperation throws at the end there.  But if Matt Milano doesn't drop that sure Pick 6 in the third quarter, and Miami went on to lose this game because of it, then we wouldn't even be having this discussion.  It's a game of inches.

Good Luck to us all. 

Since 2015, NFL Teams off a money line win as a DOG and are a DOG on TNF are 0-12 straight up and 1-11 ATS"