TNF - Pats / Steelers - an explanation of the importance of traction....

NFL Season Record +26.5 units
No bet Pats / Steelers

I have been asked by several people about why my number of plays are down, and why overall unit risk is down from previous seasons.  An attempt to explain….

I wager to be profitable – first and foremost.  I use a method that relies on objective analysis (math and stats) to provide edges, and then use subjective factors to come up with wagers and staking.  One of the tools I rely on is what I call my “traction report”.  It is a post mortem report on every game to see how close my model was to the actual outcomes in that game – and if my model is gaining or losing traction.

Traction measures a lot of the things I try to predict – not just outcomes and final scores – but also key indicators or what I have identified to be important to predicting outcomes and final scores.

When my traction is high – I have more plays for more units.  When traction is low – the threshold for a wager is higher and the units are lower.  Pretty simple.

Normally – traction goes up as the season goes on – usually peaking in weeks 10-16.  This has been the case in the last 5 years or so.  But this season, even though I am up posted 26.5 units – traction has been decreasing – leaving me with less games to bet and less units on those games.

I did see a good increase last week even though I went 2-2, so hopefully it is headed in the right direction – and I do have several high unit games coming up on Sunday.

I don’t bet for enjoyment.  For all of those that do – this is not a knock – but just an explanation that I would much rather sit out on games that do not think I have an edge on – and that has been happening a lot this season.

GL all

@vanzack

 Now if we all could be that disciplined. 

Always appreciate the write ups. 

Bol going forward VZ!

@vanzack

 Thanks for sharing your thoughts on traction, and letting us know that there is no play today, good luck with your plays on Sunday.

MUCH OBLIGED FIN SIR!

@vanzack

 You have been one of the best NFL cappers on here for years. Much appreciated!

Do you ever bet on the 2nd half of games ? 

I know you're a long term winner, I want to know when did you figure out how to be profitable.

Thanks all.

@Theasscritic

I do all the time

@diondimucci

Its less about when, and more about why and how. 

Why?  Because I made a decision I wasn't going to lose anymore.  I made the decision that profitability was paramount, and desire to bet needed to be destroyed.  It was a simple acknowledgement that casual gamblers lose, and serious gamblers win - and I chose to be serious.

How?  Open minded approach to learning as much as possible about the things I knew very little about.  Computer modeling, statistics, causation vs correlation, discipline, and process.  Process is the most important.  Take as many decisions out of your idiotic caveman brain and put them on objective analysis.  Everyone thinks humans make good decisions and accurate projections about probabilities and outcomes - this couldnt be farther from the truth.

Patience and years of refinement.  These are things anyone can do.  I dont even worry about losing anymore.  It is a question of how much profit, not a question of if I will be profitable.

Did you learn all those betting angles and formulas from Mr. OK?  Seems like something he would have put years into developing.  Asking for a friend.

Made me actually lol

I can't even watch this game

Year 6 and still working on being discipline..Getting there.

Keep at it.  Develop a process.  That will help.  If your process says dont bet, it is a lot easier not to bet.

GL

Nice read Van. Good luck going forward. 

@vanzack

 So your traction report is a final score indicator, you jump on a line when it tells you to 

last week the report told you to take denver and Norl 

now ….. both teams didn’t cover the first half

 so does that mean you MUST take them in the second half again ?

as you are now getting an even BETTER final score number than your traction report predicted 

sorry for the question, just an interesting process you have

I just have to say Van…

For all the work you put in and it sure does sound like a lot (I bet you enjoy the process though as it always feels good to pick winners), thank you for sharing your plays with us.  I mean, you never had to by any means so just want you to know that it’s extremely appreciated.

Traction report is not a final score indicator.  It measures how close the predictive model was to actual results.  Not the final score.  Things like pressure rates, standard deviations of score predictions, quarterback win rate, EPA etc....

The report did not tell me to take anyone.  My predictive model did.  Think of the traction report as a grade on an exam.  It doesnt tell you how to answer the exam - it is the answer key that measures how well you did on the exam.

Hope that clarifies.

I do enjoy the process.  It is funny you say this - the enjoyment I had decades ago betting on a game has transitioned to the satisfaction you mention.

There is a ton of satisfaction knowing that hard work and years of trying pays off.  Cant deny that.

Appreciate you also!

@Theasscritic

Further explanation....

Looking at the result of one game vs what you predicted is pretty useless.  I want to know that what I predicted happened - not that I happened to be on a side that won for entirely not what I was predicting.

For instance...

Lets say my model points out a bunch of key causation indicators for a game, so I bet that side.  That side wins.  But all of my key indicators were wrong - but they won anyway.  THat is bad traction.  That means I won because of variance.

Everything I do is to syphon through the variance and get to key indicators of causation.  You can be 10-0 and have terrible traction.  You can be 0-10 and have great traction.

Traction predicts long term winning.

@vanzack

 So the model tells you your getting a good number 

so if you don’t cover the first half line , do you have to take them again with a 2nd half ats bet ? 

No.  Second half wagers are modeled from first half statistics and have zero to do with already made wagers on that game.  Already placed wagers have nothing to do with any decision to make an ingame wager.  If the line at that moment has value on the team I bet against, I bet it.

Live bets same thing.

There is much more reliance on eyes and guts for in game wagers than pregame wagers - but there is still modeling support also.

@vanzack

colts 

broncos 

saints 

3 of your 4 bets last week lost the first half ats but they went 3 and 0 ats in the second half 

just wondering from your experience with your plays how does this play out from previous history for you 

first half ats loss but 2nd half ats win ??

Under!!!!!!!