Thursday Night pre-Christmas degenerate special....

@budwiser

 I appreciate the attempt, but this is what I am looking for:

1. Definition of rules of when to be reverse line movement
2. Source of data in #1
3. Results of a historical data set

Thanks in advance (crickets)

@vanzack

My all time favorite Covers capper since '08!  

Merry Christmas to you and your family!  

And of course, BOL tonight!    

@vanzack

 yeah you're right, there is none.

it's all bs

i think we're on the same page in that sense

Walt the Weapon....  My favorite Covers capper as of today!!

GL  - Merry Christmas

I still get a chuckle at the guy who thought you were holding a cat in your pict.

I think about that from time to time also and always get a laugh.

@Raiderpug

 needs to hold 100s..that's the only thing I don't like about it

https://twitter.com/RightSideVP/status/1474117622094606341

just putting it out there

sportsgrid's donny rightside

daaany

Guy who talks about reverse line movement, has 16k followers, and posts wagers of $50.  Ok.  Pass.

GL Van...Merry Christmas...your having a good year....

Thanks guys

Still waiting for the reverse line movement guys to explain.

Happy Christmas, man. thanks for throwing me Ravens/Browns pick a couple weeks back. Luckiest cover i ages.

If only people understood your sentiment when there are unlucky losses.

@vanzack

well, you gotta accept the bad luck. more than happy to have a bounce in my favor now and again.

 Zack

So if the line moving from 3.5 to 3 is reverse line movement, I guess the more recent line move from 3 to 3.5 is reverse reverse line movement?

What do we do now??

Can an example be: Team A ( favorite ) plays Team B. Team A opened at -3.5, yet now its at -1.5 with 88% of the money on it.

The question is; Is the -1.5 considered " The line " that went reversed from -3.5, where it shoud´ve went to -5.5 ? 

I don´t know. 

@vanzack

 whats up van HCG here good to see wish u happy holidays.

In regards to your reverse line movement question the public is obviously on the Niners this game so you would think the line would go from Niners -3.5 to -4 when it went to Niners -3 with the majority of the bets on the Niners that is when people are saying reverse line movement.

The idea of why should the line go down with a majority of the bets on the favorite.

The line is now moving as it should with the majority on the Niners when it went back from -3 to -3.5

The reason this is impossible for anyone to actually discuss is because you get those people saying "the public percentages is all bs and not accurate etc"

NFL Football Public Betting Chart - See Who The Public is Betting (thespread.com)

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/public-betting

But yeah everyone wants to be "sharp" so they when they see the line move the opposite way of the majority they think it is a great bet due to the dreaded "RLM"

I feel RLM loses more times than it wins anyway 

@vanzack

 I like the pick 

Good Luck Merry Christmas

I am on the Titans large myself at +3.5 released yesterday.

I just look at is as the Titans are a great team in the underdog role when nothing is expected of them and I am getting line value of a line that should be a pk em imo.

Look at Shannahans awful career record coaching record which is under .500 and the Niners last two road games... Lost at an awful Seattle team and beat the Bengals by 3 in overtime in a game they were dominated and got a 17-6 halfitme lead bc of 10-14 pts off of a fumbled Punt return by Cincy and a muffed punt by Cincy.. ( i can't recall off the top of my head if they got two Td's off of the phantom fumbles or a td and fg)

Vrabel is 18-15 SU as an underdog and feel getting some line value here due to an overreaction to the Niners blowout win againt a terrible Falcons team and an ugly Titans loss to the Steelers. 

Titans left tackle and left guard are out tho and down to third string left takcle, which could hurt and u brought up good points in the streak SF is on winning 5 out of 6 

Best of luck the rest of the weekend except here as I need to MT mount Titans 

Start drinking, of course.

@Vegas11787

 "I feel RLM loses more times than it wins anyway"

Agree 

Miss your crazy hyper blackjack videos, those were great.

One last point is the Titans are number 2 in rush defense so unless something unusual happens tonight and there run D gets gashed then SF main advantage they have in most games is neutralized 

I think this is big in a game where I am getting +3.5 pts as well.

Always look forward to your picks tho bro 

I know nobody takes me seriously from my past but I been trying hard to cap games properly just some thoughts I had on this game. 

@undermysac

 happy holidays bro, hope all is well 

@LGG79

 correct.

Team A is -3.5 with 80% of the money on them and line goes to -1.5 it is a RLM

if it went from -3.5 to -5.5 with 80% of the money on them than it's a logical line move bc they want some people to start betting the other side.

The trap i fall into and many others I believe is thinking a bet is a great bet just bc of the RLM 

It's trying too hard to be sharp which anyone on this forum myself included seems to do. 

The average $10 joe public bettor just blindly bets every favorite I feel.