Thursday Night pre-Christmas degenerate special....

49ers -3 (4 units)

Love this spot, and a great matchup for SF. Teams heading in opposite directions.

Last 6 games for each stats show SF as a SB team, and TN as bottom feeders. TN has scored 13 in 3 of their last 4, cant run, and are missing 2 starting Oline.

Unique game because first half of the year stats look the exact opposite - but if you isolate the last 6 games adjusted for SOS - TN are near the bottom in both passing and rushing, with pressure on QB towards the bottom also on both sides while SF is exact opposite.  With SF it always comes down to Garrapolo turnovers - but even if he has one or two they still win this game - just cant be a disaster because you know Tanneyhill will turn it over also - and TN cant get to the QB and SF can.

To the casual fan and sports bettor, this looks like a 9-4 team catching a FG at home against an 8-5 team on a short week.  Dont be fooled.

SF wins comfortably 31-13

GL losers, and Merry Christmas to some of you.

Record posted by mandate of the CRA, and the trolls (who have seemed to have disappeared because you know......  What could they possibly say?)

UP 34.14 UNITS FOR THE SEASON
Week 1:  + 2.50 Units
Week 2:  + 1.45
Week 3:  + 1.82
Week 4:  + 18.87 (yes, 8-0)
Week 5      - 1.00
Week 6:    - 11.00
Week 7:   + .50
Week 8:   -  2.00
Week 9:   - 1.00
Week 10:  + 7.00
Week 11:  - 1.50
Week 12:  + 6.00
Week 13:  - 1.50
Week 14:  +5.00
Week 15:  +9.00

Love it Van! 

@TrojanTodd

Let's go Van!

@vanzack

BTW...

I have read all over the place "reverse line movement" and similar phrases all pointing to the same thing.

For the record - I DO NOT BELIEVE IN THE CONCEPT OF REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT.  It is a made up thing, fugaizi fugazi wizzy wazzy - fairy dust, with no stats to support it.  For all of those saying bet reverse line movement - I have yet to hear it clearly defined and stats to support it.  It is just another gambling myth that the majority believe blindly because they cant win.

Stick to what is real.  Stick to what can be proven.  Stick to math and science.  All the other stuff is noise, and just a distraction from the hard work that makes you better at being a successful sports bettor.

Reverse line movement ......  Lol....  Just a joke.

  Like it, good to see ya posting regularly, Merry Christmas sir

Thanks guys.  Merry Christmas to all of you also.

Fantastic year, stay hot 

@sportschat

@vanzack

 You are correct. Only 2 things move lines. Money or players being out for any reason. Night off, injured, covid etc.

Thanks for the insight Van!!!

Merry Christmas to you and yours!!!

Thanks all.  And Happy Holidays to all as well.

I feel like the line is about to tick up a little.  Been seeing that movement.  Bookmaker still has -3 -108, but I feel like it is going to be a more expensive -3 soon and up to gametime.  Who knows.

@vanzack

 Merry Christmas Van!

Titans getting back both Julio and AJ. If you can't establish the run it doesn't matter.

Same side tn.

Let's do this!!

@vanzack

 Yea reverse line movement the mythical beast (that is not real) lmao … wow .. stupid take 

Wow - literally within 5 minutes line is now -3 -117

OK, educate me.  I am here to listen.

What is reverse line movement, and what are the stats that show it is successful?

Thanks in advance.  I am sure we will never hear from you again.  I have asked this question on covers for many years - and NOT A SINGLE POSTER HAS EVER EXPLAINED IT.  Here's to hoping you are the first.  Not holding my breath.

@vanzack

 I think when people say reverse line movement for example- Titans opened as a -1 favorite and now the 49ers are -3 favorite. Am I correct?

Merry Xmas Van

That is simply line movement.  Crossing zero doesnt make it "reverse line movement".

The tin foil hat crowd believe something along the lines of.....  If a higher percentage of bets come in (this percentage is always from dubious sources) on a team, but the line moves the other way - bet the way of the line move not the percentage.  The idea being that you would rather be on the same side of the few big money bettors, than the larger crowd who bet smaller money.

The problems are that there are ZERO stats on this (nobody tracks it), zero rules around it (nobody ever defines it), and the source of the book statistics are extremely questionable.  But yet people post it and swear by it as if it is real.

Notice nobody has answered the questions yet?  I have been asking literally for YEARS.

@Txcarr

 They never been favorit Titans it's Niners by 4 and down by 3.

This why this kinda strange because spread must be "higher" and not "lower" .

Thanks for calling me a loser, it is appropriate ,  but you suck ?? JK. GL 

Fair enough!

@vanzack

 not making any picks.

the answer to what is reverse line movement is, the ca$h or people go one way, but the line stays or goes the other direction.

the answer to whether it's legit or not, depends on the source.  a lot of this biz is about bull@hit analysis.  proctology.

a lot of the sources know the so-called reverse line is square, they'll put the word out to get $ on the other side.  some of the sources are legit.  some aren't.  some don't know what they're talking about.  some will flat out lie, and some refuse to ever lie.  and some will change what they say over time.  again, bs analysis.

as for why the public doesn't move the line, same answer as i said before.  if a guy wins one week, the book doesn't care.  he loses the next week, they keep the juice.  he keeps playing.  the books could care less about the public, other than taking their ca$h.  if you just fade the public and nothing else, you're wasting your time.