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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Thoughts on a Hedge?

    Moose1986
    LOWRYLOVER
    Coviddies
    kcblitzkrieg
    Shortporch
    ...
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    Views: 436
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    Moose1986
    Moose1986
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 2:20 PM ET #1

    Hello Gentlemen,

    I have a Chiefs Future for $400 at +280 to win back a total of $1520 (with my initial wager).

    Should I hedge with Tampa ML?

    Take Tampa at plus 3.5?

    Let it ride?

    All opinions are welcome. I am not a cancel culture liberal if I don’t like your opinion ??

     

    Moose Out!

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Hello Gentlemen,

    I have a Chiefs Future for $400 at +280 to win back a total of $1520 (with my initial wager).

    Should I hedge with Tampa ML?

    Take Tampa at plus 3.5?

    Let it ride?

    All opinions are welcome. I am not a cancel culture liberal if I don’t like your opinion ??

     

    Moose Out!

     
    LOWRYLOVER
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 2:24 PM ET #2

    You’re asking other men to tell you what to do with your money. You are a absolutely a cancel culture liberal.

    Reply

    You’re asking other men to tell you what to do with your money. You are a absolutely a cancel culture liberal.

     
    Coviddies
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 2:40 PM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by LOWRYLOVER:

    You’re asking other men to tell you what to do with your money. You are a absolutely a cancel culture liberal.

    wow what a jerkoff 

     

    let it ride man, chiefs will bring home the bacon for you 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by LOWRYLOVER:

    You’re asking other men to tell you what to do with your money. You are a absolutely a cancel culture liberal.

    wow what a jerkoff 

     

    let it ride man, chiefs will bring home the bacon for you 

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 3:50 PM ET #4

    I would not hedge the 3.5.... the odds they cover but don't win the game are not close to favoring you at all.  If you do hedge, just take the +150 ML.  But me personally would not hedge.  Let's say your $400 represents 4 units....

    Risk 4u to win 11.2 

    What is your purpose to the hypothetical hedge?  Win back a net unit amount, say 1 unit, or break even?  At +150 you are looking at something similar to...

    Risk 3u to win 4.5u - Tampa wins and your net is .5u / Tampa loses and your net is 8.2u  

    Is 4 units a lot to you?  Idk only you can answer if it is worth your $ in that instance.  Personally, in your situation I would only hedge if the payout on the hedge side was significant, like 5 or 6 to 1...It's not worth it to me, I'd rather risk the 4 to win 11 than just guarantee a 3-4 unit profit. Over the long run though hedging will limit your $ winnings / increase your $ losses

    Secondary to hedge philosophies, I'm heavy on KC winning this game so in that regard it's not worth hedging as I would be reducing what I expect to be my winnings... 

    Time is a flat circle....
    Reply

    I would not hedge the 3.5.... the odds they cover but don't win the game are not close to favoring you at all.  If you do hedge, just take the +150 ML.  But me personally would not hedge.  Let's say your $400 represents 4 units....

    Risk 4u to win 11.2 

    What is your purpose to the hypothetical hedge?  Win back a net unit amount, say 1 unit, or break even?  At +150 you are looking at something similar to...

    Risk 3u to win 4.5u - Tampa wins and your net is .5u / Tampa loses and your net is 8.2u  

    Is 4 units a lot to you?  Idk only you can answer if it is worth your $ in that instance.  Personally, in your situation I would only hedge if the payout on the hedge side was significant, like 5 or 6 to 1...It's not worth it to me, I'd rather risk the 4 to win 11 than just guarantee a 3-4 unit profit. Over the long run though hedging will limit your $ winnings / increase your $ losses

    Secondary to hedge philosophies, I'm heavy on KC winning this game so in that regard it's not worth hedging as I would be reducing what I expect to be my winnings... 

     
    Shortporch
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 3:58 PM ET #5

    Once the chiefs go up by a TD/10 points hedge the buccs moneyline it will be +360.

    Reply

    Once the chiefs go up by a TD/10 points hedge the buccs moneyline it will be +360.

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:01 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by Shortporch:

    Once the chiefs go up by a TD/10 points hedge the buccs moneyline it will be +360.

    There you go peace_5 

    Time is a flat circle....
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Shortporch:

    Once the chiefs go up by a TD/10 points hedge the buccs moneyline it will be +360.

    There you go peace_5 

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:01 PM ET #7

    ....except at that point you would REALLY be throwing your money away on Tampa an_roll_laugh

    Time is a flat circle....
    Reply

    ....except at that point you would REALLY be throwing your money away on Tampa an_roll_laugh

     
    Mick_Dundee
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:04 PM ET #8

    @Shortporch

    Yep that's a good idea.

    Either do a live bet hedge or just let it ride. I think Chiefs win personally so me I'd just let it ride without thinking twice. But I don't know your situation if you really need guaranteed money then live hedge it. I doubt Tampa Bay going to come out and lead start to finish. Chiefs will lead at some point.

    GL clover

    peace_5

    Reply

    @Shortporch

    Yep that's a good idea.

    Either do a live bet hedge or just let it ride. I think Chiefs win personally so me I'd just let it ride without thinking twice. But I don't know your situation if you really need guaranteed money then live hedge it. I doubt Tampa Bay going to come out and lead start to finish. Chiefs will lead at some point.

    GL clover

    peace_5

     
    Moose1986
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:13 PM ET #9

    I live bet Kansas City last week down 9-0 at +104. Risked $800 and won $832. 

    I always like the idea of going into a game guaranteed money if possible. That being said, I am going to wait for a potential live bet with Tampa Bay getting good odds. Hopefully Kansas City just takes care of business. 

    Besides the one lovely gentleman who chose to belittle my comment, I believe this forum allows for bettors to get opinions and make sound decisions on games. It offers insights for locals with their home teams and it is even more helpful in the NCAA Circuit.

    Thanks for the help fellas. Go Chiefs!

    Reply

    I live bet Kansas City last week down 9-0 at +104. Risked $800 and won $832. 

    I always like the idea of going into a game guaranteed money if possible. That being said, I am going to wait for a potential live bet with Tampa Bay getting good odds. Hopefully Kansas City just takes care of business. 

    Besides the one lovely gentleman who chose to belittle my comment, I believe this forum allows for bettors to get opinions and make sound decisions on games. It offers insights for locals with their home teams and it is even more helpful in the NCAA Circuit.

    Thanks for the help fellas. Go Chiefs!

     
    dyamarik
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:17 PM ET #10

    Without knowing your bankroll situation, hard to say.  If $400 is a single unit on your roll, then let it ride, or in game bet as suggested.  If it is say 25% or more, then grab a little ML to make sure you don't lose the entire $400.  Something like drop $200 on the ML at +150, then In Game bet if you get the chance. 

    BOL clover

    People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
    Reply

    Without knowing your bankroll situation, hard to say.  If $400 is a single unit on your roll, then let it ride, or in game bet as suggested.  If it is say 25% or more, then grab a little ML to make sure you don't lose the entire $400.  Something like drop $200 on the ML at +150, then In Game bet if you get the chance. 

    BOL clover

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:25 PM ET #11

    @Moose1986

     peace_5

    Time is a flat circle....
    Reply

    @Moose1986

     peace_5

     
    NutinButtLove
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:48 PM ET #12

    I have almost the same bet, placed in September. Im letting it ride. We have the edge on the book now, moneyline is almost -200.

    I usually hedge for guaranteed profits but not here, because it's the last game (i know there are other sports but still) and in this case the hedge will make either result only  minor profit really. And my other future bet was GB so hedging would really mean my future bets were barely any profit at all, even if I picked the winner in September! Screw that.

    You made your SB pick so unless you actually think the other side is the winner I wouldn't be hedging. I'd stick to my guns. And you probably would too if it wasn't big bad Brady, right?

    If we had a big longshot at 10/1 who was a TD dog I would hedge. Not with the team that was fav all year at less than 3/1.

    Getting there again is so hard, now that we're on the cusp of a cash (albeit with a major obstacle) im not wasting the chance to take all of it. We have the reigning champs at great odds, with the younger QB and insane talent at QB, TE and WR and a coach who has SB experience. No reason to be scared.. especially scared to lose a few hundred bucks that we wont miss anyway as it's already been spent for weeks/months.

    What I definitely would be wary of is the advice to hedge live if they're ahead. First of all, the Super Bowl is often like a college bowl game: one team quickly asserts itself as the one most ready to play, or simply gets the first lucky break or big play and rides that momentum while the team that starts on the back foot flounders as their dream slips away.

    Also: the Chiefs often fall behind and then win. They rarely go up big and lose, though sometimes they go up big and dont cover like vs the Browns, but in this case once the game kicks off I'm a Chief backer til the final whistle not playing any 'games within the game.'

     

    Reply

    I have almost the same bet, placed in September. Im letting it ride. We have the edge on the book now, moneyline is almost -200.

    I usually hedge for guaranteed profits but not here, because it's the last game (i know there are other sports but still) and in this case the hedge will make either result only  minor profit really. And my other future bet was GB so hedging would really mean my future bets were barely any profit at all, even if I picked the winner in September! Screw that.

    You made your SB pick so unless you actually think the other side is the winner I wouldn't be hedging. I'd stick to my guns. And you probably would too if it wasn't big bad Brady, right?

    If we had a big longshot at 10/1 who was a TD dog I would hedge. Not with the team that was fav all year at less than 3/1.

    Getting there again is so hard, now that we're on the cusp of a cash (albeit with a major obstacle) im not wasting the chance to take all of it. We have the reigning champs at great odds, with the younger QB and insane talent at QB, TE and WR and a coach who has SB experience. No reason to be scared.. especially scared to lose a few hundred bucks that we wont miss anyway as it's already been spent for weeks/months.

    What I definitely would be wary of is the advice to hedge live if they're ahead. First of all, the Super Bowl is often like a college bowl game: one team quickly asserts itself as the one most ready to play, or simply gets the first lucky break or big play and rides that momentum while the team that starts on the back foot flounders as their dream slips away.

    Also: the Chiefs often fall behind and then win. They rarely go up big and lose, though sometimes they go up big and dont cover like vs the Browns, but in this case once the game kicks off I'm a Chief backer til the final whistle not playing any 'games within the game.'

     

     
    spottie2935
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 4:54 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Moose1986:

    I live bet Kansas City last week down 9-0 at +104. Risked $800 and won $832.  I always like the idea of going into a game guaranteed money if possible. That being said, I am going to wait for a potential live bet with Tampa Bay getting good odds. Hopefully Kansas City just takes care of business.  Besides the one lovely gentleman who chose to belittle my comment, I believe this forum allows for bettors to get opinions and make sound decisions on games. It offers insights for locals with their home teams and it is even more helpful in the NCAA Circuit. Thanks for the help fellas. Go Chiefs!

     

    On this site lower your expectations that we are sane and stable humans. Good luck on your play peace_5

    Spottie2935 on socials
    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Moose1986:

    I live bet Kansas City last week down 9-0 at +104. Risked $800 and won $832.  I always like the idea of going into a game guaranteed money if possible. That being said, I am going to wait for a potential live bet with Tampa Bay getting good odds. Hopefully Kansas City just takes care of business.  Besides the one lovely gentleman who chose to belittle my comment, I believe this forum allows for bettors to get opinions and make sound decisions on games. It offers insights for locals with their home teams and it is even more helpful in the NCAA Circuit. Thanks for the help fellas. Go Chiefs!

     

    On this site lower your expectations that we are sane and stable humans. Good luck on your play peace_5

     
    BucsUpNorth
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 5:00 PM ET #14

    @Moose1986

     Going against TB12 and an energized defense on the other side I recommend you hedge with the 3.5  ..... Not just because I’m a Bucs fan but they are a legitimate threat to win this game. Chiefs coming into this game missing both starting tackles you cannot feel all that comfortable an_light

     

     

    Reply

    @Moose1986

     Going against TB12 and an energized defense on the other side I recommend you hedge with the 3.5  ..... Not just because I’m a Bucs fan but they are a legitimate threat to win this game. Chiefs coming into this game missing both starting tackles you cannot feel all that comfortable an_light

     

     

     
    BucsUpNorth
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2021 - 5:03 PM ET #15

    @Moose1986

     Assuming you want your 400 back atleast I would throw that on the +3.5

    Reply

    @Moose1986

     Assuming you want your 400 back atleast I would throw that on the +3.5

     
    hehateme_OLD_15815
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2021 - 1:08 PM ET #16

    @Moose1986

    Leading up to the game that is 11 days away, if you are comfortable performing 2-team parlays with soccer favorites of -300 to -500 with the Bucs adjusted line of +10.5 (currently at -285), you'll be looking at an average wager of -130 to -150 come game day Bucs +10.5.  If you are able to have enough parlays alive to profit $400 on the Bucs by game day, you'll have a great opportunity to hit both.  I personally like the Chiefs to win and think your original wager will hit, but doing the above mentioned parlays will leave you with a sweat-free experience on game-day.

    p.s. - soccer favorites of -300 or more (i.e. to win in regulation) are highly probable when compared to a basketball favorite for instance to win a quarter, half, or game.  The variance in basketball games is high, where as in a 90 minute soccer match, a -300 or favorite prevails very frequently.

    BOL bud.  peace_5

    Chalks, Dogs, Overs, Unders, Props....I love 'em all
    Reply

    @Moose1986

    Leading up to the game that is 11 days away, if you are comfortable performing 2-team parlays with soccer favorites of -300 to -500 with the Bucs adjusted line of +10.5 (currently at -285), you'll be looking at an average wager of -130 to -150 come game day Bucs +10.5.  If you are able to have enough parlays alive to profit $400 on the Bucs by game day, you'll have a great opportunity to hit both.  I personally like the Chiefs to win and think your original wager will hit, but doing the above mentioned parlays will leave you with a sweat-free experience on game-day.

    p.s. - soccer favorites of -300 or more (i.e. to win in regulation) are highly probable when compared to a basketball favorite for instance to win a quarter, half, or game.  The variance in basketball games is high, where as in a 90 minute soccer match, a -300 or favorite prevails very frequently.

    BOL bud.  peace_5

     
    hehateme_OLD_15815
    hehateme_OLD_15815
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2021 - 1:26 PM ET #17

    Another alternative - take the following 4 wagers if you think the Chiefs are good enough to hang within 10 points....LMAO an_roll_laugh

    1.  Bucs to win by 1-3 (currently +900 on my book) - risk 44.45 (or whatever equivalent on your book to win 400)

    2.  Bucs to win by 7-10 (currently +1000 on my book) - risk 40 (or whatever equivalent on your book to win 400)

    3.  Bucs to win by 4-6 (currently +1250 on my book) - risk 32 (or whatever equivalent on your book to win 400)

    4.  Bucs ml - risk to win 84.45 (on my book, the risk would be 58.24 to win 84.45) - i.e.  cover the higher two risk amounts above

    These wagers can be made if you strongly believe that even if the Bucs pull the upset, they will not win more than 10.  I think that is a relatively safe probability.  In this example, with the above lines, you are looking at a risk of only $174.69 to win a net of $400 on the Bucs and completely offset your future KC wager.  That is a +229 ml value which is FAR better than the +150 or similar ML that currently exists on the Bucs.  The upside to this is very high probability hedges with minimal risk so you don't cut into your profit much if Chiefs win.  The downside is zero chance of middling.  

     

    Chalks, Dogs, Overs, Unders, Props....I love 'em all
    Reply

    Another alternative - take the following 4 wagers if you think the Chiefs are good enough to hang within 10 points....LMAO an_roll_laugh

    1.  Bucs to win by 1-3 (currently +900 on my book) - risk 44.45 (or whatever equivalent on your book to win 400)

    2.  Bucs to win by 7-10 (currently +1000 on my book) - risk 40 (or whatever equivalent on your book to win 400)

    3.  Bucs to win by 4-6 (currently +1250 on my book) - risk 32 (or whatever equivalent on your book to win 400)

    4.  Bucs ml - risk to win 84.45 (on my book, the risk would be 58.24 to win 84.45) - i.e.  cover the higher two risk amounts above

    These wagers can be made if you strongly believe that even if the Bucs pull the upset, they will not win more than 10.  I think that is a relatively safe probability.  In this example, with the above lines, you are looking at a risk of only $174.69 to win a net of $400 on the Bucs and completely offset your future KC wager.  That is a +229 ml value which is FAR better than the +150 or similar ML that currently exists on the Bucs.  The upside to this is very high probability hedges with minimal risk so you don't cut into your profit much if Chiefs win.  The downside is zero chance of middling.  

     

     
    TheWestbelfort
    TheWestbelfort
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2021 - 2:31 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by Moose1986:

    Hello Gentlemen, I have a Chiefs Future for $400 at +280 to win back a total of $1520 (with my initial wager). Should I hedge with Tampa ML? Take Tampa at plus 3.5? Let it ride? All opinions are welcome. I am not a cancel culture liberal if I don’t like your opinion ??   Moose Out!

     

    ABSOLUTELY DO NOT HEDGE.. no need... Mahommes will win... Chiefs are the new dynasty.. Bucs can't stop Mahommes so bucs can't win... that simple. 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Moose1986:

    Hello Gentlemen, I have a Chiefs Future for $400 at +280 to win back a total of $1520 (with my initial wager). Should I hedge with Tampa ML? Take Tampa at plus 3.5? Let it ride? All opinions are welcome. I am not a cancel culture liberal if I don’t like your opinion ??   Moose Out!

     

    ABSOLUTELY DO NOT HEDGE.. no need... Mahommes will win... Chiefs are the new dynasty.. Bucs can't stop Mahommes so bucs can't win... that simple. 

     
    sicknesscity
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2021 - 6:15 PM ET #19

    No.  Don't hedge.  Didn't you make that bet because you were confident KC could win?  You weren't doing it with the intention of hedging to guarantee a profit.  I suppose if it represented a significant portion of your bankroll, then yeah, I guess you could do it but even then I'd say no.  This is why you gamble and unless you're suddenly scared that Tampa can knock the Chiefs off, you just ride out your bet and wait to see if it cashes.  I've seen people on here talk about how it's bad math to hedge anyway but IMO it may only be practical if you feel the outcome isn't a good wager any longer.  I presume that you think the Chiefs can win.  Right?

    Reply

    No.  Don't hedge.  Didn't you make that bet because you were confident KC could win?  You weren't doing it with the intention of hedging to guarantee a profit.  I suppose if it represented a significant portion of your bankroll, then yeah, I guess you could do it but even then I'd say no.  This is why you gamble and unless you're suddenly scared that Tampa can knock the Chiefs off, you just ride out your bet and wait to see if it cashes.  I've seen people on here talk about how it's bad math to hedge anyway but IMO it may only be practical if you feel the outcome isn't a good wager any longer.  I presume that you think the Chiefs can win.  Right?

     
    Moose1986
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2021 - 6:28 AM ET #20

    I think the Chiefs will win. 

    I could hedge and make like $500. But I’m going for the $1100. Life is too short. 

    The game could come down to who adjusts better with their injuries. The Bucs in the secondary and The Chiefs with their offensive line.

     

    I think Reid can be more creative with play calls; roll outs to move the pocket and negate the pass rush. Jet sweeps, screens, running the ball. Contrary to belief, I could see Kansas City controlling the clock in this one.

     

    Reply

    I think the Chiefs will win. 

    I could hedge and make like $500. But I’m going for the $1100. Life is too short. 

    The game could come down to who adjusts better with their injuries. The Bucs in the secondary and The Chiefs with their offensive line.

     

    I think Reid can be more creative with play calls; roll outs to move the pocket and negate the pass rush. Jet sweeps, screens, running the ball. Contrary to belief, I could see Kansas City controlling the clock in this one.

     

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2021 - 7:00 AM ET #21

    Next time if you think you might want to hedge just bet KC to win AFC as well. Then you already have won your hedge and can let this one ride. 

    But depending on who they play you may or may not get better odds. But most times I think you end up with better odds with the to win AFC bet as a weak team would have to make the SB for you to get better odds and that doesn't happen very often.

    Reply

    Next time if you think you might want to hedge just bet KC to win AFC as well. Then you already have won your hedge and can let this one ride. 

    But depending on who they play you may or may not get better odds. But most times I think you end up with better odds with the to win AFC bet as a weak team would have to make the SB for you to get better odds and that doesn't happen very often.

     
    EddyIce
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2021 - 8:58 AM ET #22

    I got a future bet Bucs to win super bowl  $100 to win $4k that I put last March when I first heard about Brady heading there, ima ride it out my risk is not as much as yours but good luck. Scared money don’t make no money!!!

    Reply

    I got a future bet Bucs to win super bowl  $100 to win $4k that I put last March when I first heard about Brady heading there, ima ride it out my risk is not as much as yours but good luck. Scared money don’t make no money!!!

     
    gutinstinctus
    gutinstinctus
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2021 - 10:29 AM ET #23

    You dont hedge +400 odds

    Reply

    You dont hedge +400 odds

     
     
    best_bets
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2021 - 5:24 AM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by EddyIce:

    I got a future bet Bucs to win super bowl  $100 to win $4k that I put last March when I first heard about Brady heading there, ima ride it out my risk is not as much as yours but good luck. Scared money don’t make no money!!!
    Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by EddyIce:

    I got a future bet Bucs to win super bowl  $100 to win $4k that I put last March when I first heard about Brady heading there, ima ride it out my risk is not as much as yours but good luck. Scared money don’t make no money!!!
    Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!

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