This is looking like the best spot of the year to me

Commanders -4.5(-109) *3.00/2.75

The first fav on my card this week, and I go ham...here goes nothing.

Two teams heading in opposite directions, and the situational spot couldn't get any better for Washington. 

The Giants will be playing their 4th straight divisional game, while the Commanders will be playing a consecutive divisional game. And it's this same Giants team, with a bye in between. Think about that, it's essentially 3 weeks of game planning/practice against the same damn team.

After that full over time tie, one team got to rest, the other had to play arguably the best team in football. Now the Giants have to turn around and play the rested version of Washington after getting beat down by Philly.

This feels like an impossible climb, as they are battered and bruised. Saquon Barkley toughed it out last game with a neck issue, but wasn't able to finish the game. He's probable this week but no chance of being 100% imo. The Giants have 5 listed out, 3 questionable, and 9 on IR.

The Giants have gone 1-4-1 in their last 6, with that one win being against the Texans. The 4 losses were by 22, 8, 13, and 14. In this span, they've been at home 4 times.

The Commanders have gone 4-1-1 in their last 6, with the one loss vs Minnesota where they had a 17-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Their wins have been by 6, 13, 11, and 1(1 being the most distant win). In this span, they've been otr 4 times.

If you look at common opponents, both teams are 5-4 against them, only that the Giants pt differential is -26, and Commanders is -7. Now if we look at these opponents after W7(post Wentz), Commanders are 3-0 with a +26, Giants 2-1 with a -17.

Since week 10...

Dvoa: Giants #24, Commanders #9

Defensive epa: Giants #31, Commanders #2

Offensive epa: Giants #19, Commanders #13

Brian Dabol is a rookie coach. Great offensive coordinator when he was with the Bills. He got the Giants playing over their heads in the early part of the season. Starting 6-1 was great, but the #'s didn't add up, the luck would run out.

Now Dabol has to go up against Ron Rivera who's been a HC for 11 years, a coordinator or positions coach sine 1997, and a player for 8 years. He's a players coach, a good motivator.

In his entire year as a HC, Rivera is 18-13 su when facing a divisional opponent for the second time in a season. PF=24.74, PA=22.29. But if you include only the season where he is in playoff contention at this juncture of the year, he is 12-4 su. PF=26.06, PA=17.06.

If there is anything else to cover, I guess that we should look at the referee crew.

Since 2016, home teams in Divisional games are 32-12 on the moneyline (73%) with John Hussey.

Home teams in those same games are 29-13-2 ATS (70%), the best ATS record of any referee.

The only thing I don't know is if Chase Young plays or not. That would be a nice lift if he does.

I agree. I think for these last few weeks of the season the Giants are great to fade along with Minny and Seattle 

Good luck Sac.  

Giants have no receivers left. They are very short on talent in the most critical positions. Gettleman left this team in shambles. Washington should be able to control this game and cover the spread!! 

Great write up. Cheers. 

Agree.  The Books are welcoming NYG $$ all week with this line.  They are comfortable needing Wash big in this one. 

@undermysac

 Nice angles/good info

I was liking your thinking but the trends(look em up) point to Giants?

The ones that say Giants are 5-1 ats last 6 vs Washington or so?

Yea I saw those

Great post.  This is some advanced handicapping right here, doesnt matter who you like in this one.

This is the kind of stuff Covers needs more of.

couldn’t agree more. I’ll go ahead and summarize sac’s post like 90% of covers

***HUGE Sunday Play***

YTD 100-0 +50 units

Washington -4  

seriously appreciate anyone on covers who takes the time to write anything up….even a couple sentences. Unless your on a season long heater (Alien) your pics with no explanation mean nothing and just clog up the screen. 

Sac did you go to Elgin and take the rubber band off? I’m going 5U and keying in a couple parlays

BOL Sac.  I'd certainly lean this way too 

Nice write up$$

Let’s hope for a big 2nd half 

Heinicke gotta blow some snow before 2nd half, because he plays like a complete walking lobotomy tonight. 

GL Sac Town 

Wait a minute, you chose the Commanders of all teams to go all in with your money? time to hang it up.

I guess the Giants didnt ready all your awesomely great intel.

Who exactly are you talking to?

Get em next time. Division games can be the toughest ones. Only one game.