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****The TRAIN69 Super Bowl Extravaganza****

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Posted: #1

Whats up boys & girls. Its been a fun year, as usual. Been reading a lot of posts on this site and watching a little espn. All people are talking about is Manning vs the Seattle defense. I shake my head. That is the obvious matchup that makes better tv.

Record setting HOFer Manning vs Sherman the thug!!! OMG!!!

However, the matchup people should be focusing on is RW vs the Denver defense. Thats where this game will be won.

Denver will most likely play its 4-3 defense and probably have a little safety help to stop Lynch. Now, Denvers 2 safeties and 2 CBs (Cromartie/Bailey) had a combined 4 ints this year. No big deal you say? Well, with as much as teams had to throw this year being down, I'd say it is. They are under sized and neither corner likes to tackle or get physical.

If you dig deeper you will find Denver was dead even in turnover ratio...Seattle was +20. No big deal? Well, kinda. Denver scored a lot this year, in case you didnt know. That means teams got the ball back on offense a lot. Now heres where the issue is....lets look at the AFC this year: Just horrific.

Texans

Jags

Oakland x2

SD x3

KC x2

Titans

Then they got the NFC East this year. Philly/Wash/Dallas/Giants. Brutal doesnt even describe it.

Yuck. 13 of Denvers 18 games this year have been against defenses ranked 20th or worse. Of course games vs the broncos have something to do with that. Yet, they still were dead even in turnovers and ranked 19th in total defense. Part understandable with a lot of bend but dont break, big lead defense. Problem arises when you need to make a play and reach down and find nothing.

Now, Denvers route to the SB. SD, a team they had seen twice already and who was basically playing its 5th playoff game and on b2b roadies, and shouldnt have even been in the playoffs. Then, you get a New England team that has become a "running" squad and the main offensive weapon is Julian Edelman. PUUUHLEEEZE

Manning simply cant move. That will obviously be a problem vs this defense. Of course, manning is the king of the quick release, but the AFC defenses were weak this year. Super freakin weak. Dont be surprised if you see Manning go to his second read and then fall to the ground like a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach. He wants no part of being hit. This also means he will try to squeeze the ball in some tight windows. Not a good idea. Add to that, Peytons long ball is non existent (maybe worse if the weather is bad). His arm strenght and touch have dropped off considerably, and understandably. With the safeties being able to play a little looser, it will make manning think twice able ever throw over 10 yards.

iI'm not gonna bore you with stats you can google. However, Manning had a qb rating of 115 while Wilsons was 101.....but, Denver allowed a qb rating of 84 while Seattle allowed 63....RW will be playing weaker defense than hes used to.....Manning will be playing the best hes seen all season.

Ok. I'm done for now

 

Seattle +3.5 (-130)

Seattle ML +115

Manning to throw INT before a TD +190

RW O199.5 passing yds -110

RW O1.5 passing tds +130

RW scores a rushing td +300

Lynch O21.5 rushing attempts -105

Lynch O1.5 receptions -125

Golden Tate O45.5 rec yds -110

Doug Baldwin O37.5 rec yds -110

Zach Miller O24.5 rec yds -110

 

More props to follow.

 

Eagerly awaiting the total to keep dropping (at 46.5 right now)as it will surely do as everyone keeps watching espn and thinking its gonna be soooo cold and windy.

 

All thoughts welcome, even from the endless trolls on this site. 

 
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Posted: #2

Forgot:

 

Russell Wilson MVP +350

 
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Posted: #3

Also forgot my final score prediction:

 

Seattle 34

Denver 27

 

 
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Posted: #4
I loved your analaysis train and could not agree more. I visualize Wilson having a huge day also. That Denver D is going to make him look so good.
 
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Posted: #5
#BOOM
 
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Posted: #6
RW...Most people just started watching em probably, but sure you remember the fact that he had only 1 Int as a frosh @ Carter-Findley. Just incredible what he has accomplished so far in the league and love the people who bash em not even talking about the fact that he is throwing the ball to the likes of Kearse and Baldwin. No disrespect to them either.

 Denver has some beautiful women, namely Anna Sophia Robb, but give me the best D, coupled with a QB who can make plays within the pocket and his legs to buy time. He jsut has to get rid of the ball a little quicker. Oh yeah and having a BEAST workhorse to grind the clock doesn't hurt either. Normal Medium bet 4 me so let's hear what Dribble4Life has to say with the best play Hawks have is to simply "Handoff 2 Lynch." It really is a great play though. BOL Train and enjoyed talking with ya this year!!
 
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Posted: #7
Train...Maybe a stupid question I know...How do you get "Lynch 1.5 receptions"

What's a 1/2 reception?  Before you laugh..My mother always said:  "The only dumb question....is the one that isn't asked"
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Train...Maybe a stupid question I know...How do you get "Lynch 1.5 receptions"

What's a 1/2 reception?  Before you laugh..My mother always said:  "The only dumb question....is the one that isn't asked"

Nah, not a dumb question, I just didnt type it well. Its over 1.5 receptions, so hes gotta catch 2 passes for me to win my bet.

 

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Whats up boys & girls. Its been a fun year, as usual. Been reading a lot of posts on this site and watching a little espn. All people are talking about is Manning vs the Seattle defense. I shake my head. That is the obvious matchup that makes better tv.

Record setting HOFer Manning vs Sherman the thug!!! OMG!!!

However, the matchup people should be focusing on is RW vs the Denver defense. Thats where this game will be won.

Denver will most likely play its 4-3 defense and probably have a little safety help to stop Lynch. Now, Denvers 2 safeties and 2 CBs (Cromartie/Bailey) had a combined 4 ints this year. No big deal you say? Well, with as much as teams had to throw this year being down, I'd say it is. They are under sized and neither corner likes to tackle or get physical.

If you dig deeper you will find Denver was dead even in turnover ratio...Seattle was +20. No big deal? Well, kinda. Denver scored a lot this year, in case you didnt know. That means teams got the ball back on offense a lot. Now heres where the issue is....lets look at the AFC this year: Just horrific.

Texans

Jags

Oakland x2

SD x3

KC x2

Titans

Then they got the NFC East this year. Philly/Wash/Dallas/Giants. Brutal doesnt even describe it.

Yuck. 13 of Denvers 18 games this year have been against defenses ranked 20th or worse. Of course games vs the broncos have something to do with that. Yet, they still were dead even in turnovers and ranked 19th in total defense. Part understandable with a lot of bend but dont break, big lead defense. Problem arises when you need to make a play and reach down and find nothing.

Now, Denvers route to the SB. SD, a team they had seen twice already and who was basically playing its 5th playoff game and on b2b roadies, and shouldnt have even been in the playoffs. Then, you get a New England team that has become a "running" squad and the main offensive weapon is Julian Edelman. PUUUHLEEEZE

Manning simply cant move. That will obviously be a problem vs this defense. Of course, manning is the king of the quick release, but the AFC defenses were weak this year. Super freakin weak. Dont be surprised if you see Manning go to his second read and then fall to the ground like a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach. He wants no part of being hit. This also means he will try to squeeze the ball in some tight windows. Not a good idea. Add to that, Peytons long ball is non existent (maybe worse if the weather is bad). His arm strenght and touch have dropped off considerably, and understandably. With the safeties being able to play a little looser, it will make manning think twice able ever throw over 10 yards.

iI'm not gonna bore you with stats you can google. However, Manning had a qb rating of 115 while Wilsons was 101.....but, Denver allowed a qb rating of 84 while Seattle allowed 63....RW will be playing weaker defense than hes used to.....Manning will be playing the best hes seen all season.

Ok. I'm done for now

 

Seattle +3.5 (-130)

Seattle ML +115

Manning to throw INT before a TD +190

RW O199.5 passing yds -110

RW O1.5 passing tds +130

RW scores a rushing td +300

Lynch O21.5 rushing attempts -105

Lynch O1.5 receptions -125

Golden Tate O45.5 rec yds -110

Doug Baldwin O37.5 rec yds -110

Zach Miller O24.5 rec yds -110

 

More props to follow.

 

Eagerly awaiting the total to keep dropping (at 46.5 right now)as it will surely do as everyone keeps watching espn and thinking its gonna be soooo cold and windy.

 

All thoughts welcome, even from the endless trolls on this site. 

Train I respect you. You are a very good capper but have you thought about those 4 int's? Baily did not see action most of this year and perhaps teams did not throw Cromatie's way because he's that good. Just sayin.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Whats up boys & girls. Its been a fun year, as usual. Been reading a lot of posts on this site and watching a little espn. All people are talking about is Manning vs the Seattle defense. I shake my head. That is the obvious matchup that makes better tv.

Record setting HOFer Manning vs Sherman the thug!!! OMG!!!

However, the matchup people should be focusing on is RW vs the Denver defense. Thats where this game will be won.

Denver will most likely play its 4-3 defense and probably have a little safety help to stop Lynch. Now, Denvers 2 safeties and 2 CBs (Cromartie/Bailey) had a combined 4 ints this year. No big deal you say? Well, with as much as teams had to throw this year being down, I'd say it is. They are under sized and neither corner likes to tackle or get physical.

If you dig deeper you will find Denver was dead even in turnover ratio...Seattle was +20. No big deal? Well, kinda. Denver scored a lot this year, in case you didnt know. That means teams got the ball back on offense a lot. Now heres where the issue is....lets look at the AFC this year: Just horrific.

Texans

Jags

Oakland x2

SD x3

KC x2

Titans

Then they got the NFC East this year. Philly/Wash/Dallas/Giants. Brutal doesnt even describe it.

Yuck. 13 of Denvers 18 games this year have been against defenses ranked 20th or worse. Of course games vs the broncos have something to do with that. Yet, they still were dead even in turnovers and ranked 19th in total defense. Part understandable with a lot of bend but dont break, big lead defense. Problem arises when you need to make a play and reach down and find nothing.

Now, Denvers route to the SB. SD, a team they had seen twice already and who was basically playing its 5th playoff game and on b2b roadies, and shouldnt have even been in the playoffs. Then, you get a New England team that has become a "running" squad and the main offensive weapon is Julian Edelman. PUUUHLEEEZE

Manning simply cant move. That will obviously be a problem vs this defense. Of course, manning is the king of the quick release, but the AFC defenses were weak this year. Super freakin weak. Dont be surprised if you see Manning go to his second read and then fall to the ground like a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach. He wants no part of being hit. This also means he will try to squeeze the ball in some tight windows. Not a good idea. Add to that, Peytons long ball is non existent (maybe worse if the weather is bad). His arm strenght and touch have dropped off considerably, and understandably. With the safeties being able to play a little looser, it will make manning think twice able ever throw over 10 yards.

iI'm not gonna bore you with stats you can google. However, Manning had a qb rating of 115 while Wilsons was 101.....but, Denver allowed a qb rating of 84 while Seattle allowed 63....RW will be playing weaker defense than hes used to.....Manning will be playing the best hes seen all season.

Ok. I'm done for now

 

Seattle +3.5 (-130)

Seattle ML +115

Manning to throw INT before a TD +190

RW O199.5 passing yds -110

RW O1.5 passing tds +130

RW scores a rushing td +300

Lynch O21.5 rushing attempts -105

Lynch O1.5 receptions -125

Golden Tate O45.5 rec yds -110

Doug Baldwin O37.5 rec yds -110

Zach Miller O24.5 rec yds -110

 

More props to follow.

 

Eagerly awaiting the total to keep dropping (at 46.5 right now)as it will surely do as everyone keeps watching espn and thinking its gonna be soooo cold and windy.

 

All thoughts welcome, even from the endless trolls on this site. 

Do we even need to talk about the problems Wilson may have against Denver's D? It seems like he will have none what so ever........I guess???
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Train I respect you. You are a very good capper but have you thought about those 4 int's? Baily did not see action most of this year and perhaps teams did not throw Cromatie's way because he's that good. Just sayin.
Those are valid points. However, Bailey not playing just means hes old and rusty imo. Hes small and does not wanna stick his nose in there. Cromartie can be beat, and he also likes to avoid contact. If RW can get out of the pocket, I think he will find some action downfield.

Which reminds me, I forgot to mention Percy Harvin. Impossible to plan for simply because hes an unknown factor. He will play, and looked up to game speed vs NO, but took 2 brutal hits and sent the human pretzel packin. I think Seattle wants to use him, but just being on the field as the slot receiver is gonna get attention and force the LBs to pay attention to him when he goes in motion. That should be enough to allow Tate/Baldwin and Kearse a little more freedom, not to mention clearing out the box for RW to scramble. I actually think hes gonna have a big game. Hes the best receiver the hawks got if he can stay healthy.

 

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Do we even need to talk about the problems Wilson may have against Denver's D? It seems like he will have none what so ever........I guess???

I'm willing to talk all the football you want bro. I love it.

 

I think Seattle compares best (offensively) to the Colts as far as teams Denver has faced. Luck and RW are similar. However, Lynch and the O line are a notch above Indy, while Indy has the advantage in receiver (which is negated a tab by being outside and in the cold).

So, tell me about Denvers defense.

 
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Posted: #13
I said 31-24 sea chickens the other day
Really good stuff as I agree with just about all of it
RW is a stud and will showcase his abilities
Seattle D is vicious and I believe i read where the last 4 times the no1 O faced the no1 D in the Super Bowl the no1 D covered and won all 4 times

Kj wright should be fully healed and harvin should be ready also

Seattle's last rd game of the season was in the NYC and now they're coming back for the title

GL


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Do we even need to talk about the problems Wilson may have against Denver's D? It seems like he will have none what so ever........I guess???

Respect any Denver backer, but I wanted to post this somewhere else, but did not. Champ is ALL TIME GREAT and one of my fav all time favorite DB's, obviously not the same anymore, but I'm sure he will be just fine. Agree they have vastly improved over the last 3-4 weeks on D, but looking at the entire year, they were not very good. Not quite pedestrian, but nothing that would make me feel good about backing em when it matters most. In respect to both, they are facing the best team either has played just to me. Sorry SF. This is again another matchup and have picked many wrong sides b4, but just expect Hawks to take a close one.
 
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Posted: #15
Good stuff, Train. One question, how are you spreading the money out between the ML and the spread (i.e., where are you putting most of your eggs?).

thanks
 
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Posted: #16
train - respect you a lot as a capper, but this analysis reads a lot like a guy trying to convince himself he's on the right side. I noticed you only mentioned manning and none of his receivers. Seattle hasn't faced a team with weapons like Thomas x2, welker, decker and Moreno. they also won't have their home field/12th man + broncos d has been playing extremely well as of late, against more potent offenses than Seattle. no doubt Seahawks have the depth and talent to win, but it's a far cry from a foregone conclusion, despite the claims of a lot of Seattle backers on this forum. the game comes down to Seattle getting pressure on manning and disrupting his rhythm. just not sold on Hawks d line consistently getting to him before he releases the ball. Seattle barely beat SF, whose QB turned the ball over 3 times. will Peyton give them the same luxury?  I doubt it.  
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Sfbookiebuster:

Train - your going to go broke.  My 9-0 system and this video will convince too why Denver will win the sb.  Wes welker will be mvp.  He redeem himself from that ne vs nyg sb.  No way he mess up against both mannings


What's he gonna do? Take out the entire Seattle secondary with cheap shot after cheap shot? They're on to him now.
 
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Posted: #18
just to get more clarity on your analysis train,in wat manner does a cheap hooker who got punched in the stomach fall to the ground??

ive led a rather sheltered life and dont believe ive had the pleasure of witnessing such an act.

great write-up anyhow
 
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Posted: #19
I AM ALL ABOARD BROTHER I JUST JOINED SEATTLE'S FAN BASE PRESEASON I AM RIDING THEM TO THE VERY END 

DENVER IS SIMPLY TOO SLOW AND PLAYED THE EASIEST SCHEDULE. MANNING WILL FAIL TO GET HIS 2ND CHAMPIONSHIP BURRRR
 
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Posted: #20
dont see hags scoring that much...away from hone they are consistently a mediocre scoring offense WITHOUT superbowl pressure...perhaps they get a pick 6 to steal this one...have my doubts
 
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Posted: #21

Nice writeup. Worries me bc i have a big future bet on Denver to win SB.

Still trying to decide if I will put $ on Seattle ML or ATS and try to middle.

One question related to Denver's TO ratio. I don't know the stats, but wasn't Denver leading enough in most games... which forced teams to take risks down the field (where I would expect Denver to get more TOs)? Or in those spots did Denver's D play conservative and give up a lot of easy/short passes (where I would expect Denver to get less TOs)?  

I agree with all your comments...just wondering if you think their defensive stats could be misleading...or even more important.. given the situation most teams found themselves in vs. Denver....trying to play catchup.

 

 
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Posted: #22
With ya on the +3.5 and the M/L don't bet props. G/L
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Train...Maybe a stupid question I know...How do you get "Lynch 1.5 receptions"

What's a 1/2 reception?  Before you laugh..My mother always said:  "The only dumb question....is the one that isn't asked"

It's no different with a line of -2.5.   The rest is common sense
 
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Posted: #24
R. Willson no int (+120)

hit this prop 2 weeks in a row, going for 3 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

 

Which reminds me, I forgot to mention Percy Harvin. Impossible to plan for simply because hes an unknown factor. He will play, and looked up to game speed vs NO, but took 2 brutal hits and sent the human pretzel packin. I think Seattle wants to use him, but just being on the field as the slot receiver is gonna get attention and force the LBs to pay attention to him when he goes in motion. That should be enough to allow Tate/Baldwin and Kearse a little more freedom, not to mention clearing out the box for RW to scramble. I actually think hes gonna have a big game. Hes the best receiver the hawks got if he can stay healthy.

 

percy is definitely an x-factor

No film on him except for half game vs NO.. but Denver still has to prepare for him.. Plus he is a pretty good player. 

But he can be a double-edged sword. 

He can take away from the team's regular season chemistry. Tate and Baldwin will definitely get less looks... I've watched Tate play very hesitant vs Saints in the div game, dropping several balls in the middle. (But that can be due to the hard hitting saints MLBs... Lol)

Anyways, enjoy the game Train !
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