I would say right now the biggest story line, or "what if?", would be with what the Chicago Bears will be doing with their #1 draft pick.
Do they keep Justin Fields and acquire a generational WR in Marvin Harrison Jr?
The top 5 QBs in the draft are (with the top 2 interchangeable, imo):
1. Caleb Williams (USC)
2. Drake Maye (North Carolina)
3. Jayden Daniels (LSU)
4. Michael Penix (Washington)
5. Bo Nix (Oregon)
6. J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Penix's and McCarthy's draft stock may go up a little based on the championship game.
The Bears also have the 9th overall pick as well. If they trade down from the 1st, they can add to their arsenal of picks they already have.
As a non-Bears fan, I'd personally like to see what Fields can do with a MHJ and then grab one of the OTs should they fall (Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu).
They could also trade down and grab Odunze or Nabers, and still get an OT.
The Washington Commanders have probably the most intriguing situation for a new HC to walk into. The Commanders will have the most cap space among all teams in the NFL, and they have the #2 overall pick. It would make sense for them to complete the vision of the new HC and draft one of Williams or Maye here.
I don't think Bill Belichick will be with the New England Patriots, so it'll be interesting to see which quarterback will kick off the post-BB era. I highly doubt the new HC will roll with either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, but the thought of grabbing MHJ should he fall is intriguing. With where they pick in the 2nd, they're primed to snatch a 2nd tier QB who could end up being the Josh Allen of the QB class. Josh Allen wasn't a 2nd tier prospect, but he turned out to be a lot better than Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Every other QB-need team will do their best to avoid getting their Josh Rosen.
Speaking of QB-needy teams, here is my best estimate. They include the obvious and the maybes.
Bears
Commanders
Patriots
Giants
Falcons
Jets (they still need to draft someone to be under Rodgers' wings; but could they simply add a weapon for him instead? Brock Bowers would add a whole new dimension)
Vikings (Cousins may not be back)
Broncos
Raiders
Seahawks
Steelers
Saints might be a wildcard, but I think they just bolster the line for Carr, who is is signed until 2026.
The Cards seem committed to Kyler Murry, and he looked good down the stretch. I fear that MHJ could go there, one pick right before the Chargers.
My top 5 non-QB skill players:
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
2. Malik Nabers (WR)
3. Brock Bowers (TE) - rather high for a TE, but he's on a Pitts-level; hopefully used better though
4. Rome Udenze (WR)
5. Nate Wiggins (CB)
6. Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB)
Anyone want to add some thoughts? I know the championship game tonight, as well as the combine and the Senior Bowl, will factor in which players will rise and fall. Maybe a bong picture or two, as well.
The *Official* NFL Draft Discussion Thread
If Penix balls out tonight could his draft stock rise?
I'm inclined to think so, but the main issue with him is his injury history. That's probably the main red flag with him, whether or not he's stellar in the championship game. He's had 4 consecutive season-ending injuries. Both shoulders have been injured, and he's torn his right ACL twice. But when healthy he's a great quarterback. If he's able to leave his injuries behind, and can get selected by a team with a great offensive line, he'll do wonders for a team. And teams are always willing to gamble.
I actually like Fields though im not a chicago fan, but if i was i would want to draft MHJ and a tackle like you suggested. For any of those other teams I'd take Penix or Daniels before any of those other QB options.
I can't pretend to know whether Fields should be given an extra year or not to prove his worth to the team. He's had flashes. If it were me, I would absolutely do one of the follow, hold on to Fields and:
-Draft MHJ with the #1 pick.
-Draft a tackle with the 9th or trade down to gather a few more.
or
-Trade the #1 overall pick to acquire extra picks
-Draft a tackle, Odunze or Nabers, depending on where they trade down.
It would be hard to pass up on Bowers with either the 9th (if he even falls down that far) or with the trade down pick they acquire, but they're committed to Kmet with the extension they gave him.
Pennix Jr is in his 6th year.
He is an old man in college......Has he peaked? How often do u see 6th year QB's get drafted in the top 5 - top 10..almost NEVER....Yes there is an advantage for being in college for that long as you are much more mature and developed......vs most of these top prospects who are only their for 3 years and enter draft..its about upside when u get drafted that high......Also he plays in a gimmick offense..Half the plays that Washington runs u can't even run in the NFL...All those bubble fake screens fake pass to scheme up a wide open WR's...U throw all that stuff away...He does have talent and a big arm...but he is in a friendly offense....
1. Caleb Williams (USC)
2. Drake Maye (North Carolina)
3. Jayden Daniels (LSU)
4. Michael Penix (Washington)
5. Bo Nix (Oregon)
6. J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
Don't know why I wrote Norte Dame, but meant North Carolina here. (Sam Hartman is the QB for the Irish.)
Pennix Jr is in his 6th year. He is an old man in college......Has he peaked? How often do u see 6th year QB's get drafted in the top 5 - top 10..almost NEVER....Yes there is an advantage for being in college for that long as you are much more mature and developed......vs most of these top prospects who are only their for 3 years and enter draft..its about upside when u get drafted that high......Also he plays in a gimmick offense..Half the plays that Washington runs u can't even run in the NFL...All those bubble fake screens fake pass to scheme up a wide open WR's...U throw all that stuff away...He does have talent and a big arm...but he is in a friendly offense....
I know Sam Hartman is up there too. He's 25 now, but will be a 26 year old rookie this season.
Penix will be 24 before the start of next season, which will make him 2 years younger than your favorite QB, Justin Herbert.
WIth Penix it'll be all about how he can make the adjustment from a college style offense to a pro one. Can he read defenses well, like Brady, Manning, and Rivers did? Some QBs sit a while in the pros before they get their shot at starting (Rodgers, Love, and Rivers come to mind). Brady sat a year and then started for the injured Drew Bledsoe. He was 24 at the time. Rivers, after sitting behind Brees, made his first start at 25.
I don't think age really matters for a cerebral position. Penix has shown that he is comfortable in the pocket, which is something he had to learn to become more comfortable with after a couple of ACL tears. Whether he plays a couple of extra years in college vs. sitting behind a vet, he's put in extra reps and was able to elevate his game.
So, what it boils down to is whether NFL scouts thing he is cerebral enough at the position. I don't have the answers here, but it'll be an interesting to look out for on either Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft.
@iConsciousness What? Herbert's 5th season will be next year...Pennix will bet a rookie next year...Huge difference...Pennix is a man Child in college...
No, I get that. You don't really need a few years under your belt as a backup QB. You either have it or you don't. It doesn't hurt to sit behind a pro like Bledsoe, Brees, Favre, or Rodgers. At QB you can make an immediate impression in your first year. I disagree about Penix being a manchild, but I don't really think so highly of him to have to defend him so much. He doesn't have the benefit of playing in what some would consider an elite conference, but that shouldn't be a blemish on his resume. (Josh Allen graduated from Wyoming and Goff from Cal, and they're both doing just fine. Shoot, Jordan Love graduated from Utah State and he's on the ascent, as well.)
My point, which may have meandered a bit, is that it's not a foregone conclusion that he'll wither away in the NFL. As old as he is, he'll still be amongst the young crop of QBs who have made an impression (Herbert, Burrow, Allen, etc...)
@iConsciousness
I think that anyone who passes on MHJ is making a big mistake.
Anyone who drafts Caleb Williams or Drake Maye 1 and or 2 are also going to regret it.
These "experts" and nfl scouts get the qb position so wrong year after year imo.
One funny tidbit...if the Commanders draft Drake Maye, he'd be replacing Sam Howell, who was replaced by Drake Maye at North Carolina.
In my opinion if the Bears are not interested in drafting at QB at #1 they trade down. There is no value taking a WR or OT at #1. As Justin Jefferson and many others have shown you can still get a top flight WR in the middle of the first round. It is rare to have the #1 pick and you need to maximize the value of that position. There is always going to be a QB starved team that will over pay for that pick.
@iConsciousness I think that anyone who passes on MHJ is making a big mistake. Anyone who drafts Caleb Williams or Drake Maye 1 and or 2 are also going to regret it. These "experts" and nfl scouts get the qb position so wrong year after year imo. One funny tidbit...if the Commanders draft Drake Maye, he'd be replacing Sam Howell, who was replaced by Drake Maye at North Carolina.
I was just commenting on this... but I will directly respond to you too. I do think MHJ will be the best WR in this draft. But there are two other WRs who are going to be pretty damn good too. Who knows maybe they can trade down and still draft MHJ. But they just cannot take him with the #1 pick. That isn't maximizing value for the pick.
@iConsciousness I think that anyone who passes on MHJ is making a big mistake. Anyone who drafts Caleb Williams or Drake Maye 1 and or 2 are also going to regret it. These "experts" and nfl scouts get the qb position so wrong year after year imo. One funny tidbit...if the Commanders draft Drake Maye, he'd be replacing Sam Howell, who was replaced by Drake Maye at North Carolina.
I'm with you there, and that's why I'm hoping other teams ahead of the Chargers make that mistake. In my opinion, he doesn't fall past #4 to the Cards.
But if the Bears can trade down to the 6-8th spots, and they think that Nabers can be there, then I also think that's smart.
As for QBs, I'd probably stay away from Caleb's diva tendencies, personally, and go with Maye as #1. If you're a QB-needy team and you're picking that high, it's just the nature of the best. High draft capital suggests going with QB whether you agree or not. As a Charger fan, I'm hoping for an early and sustained run on QBs. Let's keep that tradition alive! lol
From a tweet I saw:
"Forced missed tackles from Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze and Brian Thomas combined: 29
Forced missed tackles from Malik Nabers alone: 30"
I think Nabers will continue the trend of stellar LSU Tiger WRs in the NFL.
In my opinion if the Bears are not interested in drafting at QB at #1 they trade down. There is no value taking a WR or OT at #1. As Justin Jefferson and many others have shown you can still get a top flight WR in the middle of the first round. It is rare to have the #1 pick and you need to maximize the value of that position. There is always going to be a QB starved team that will over pay for that pick.
I think because of Justin Jefferson (22nd overall), JaMarr Chase (5th overall), and Zay Flowers (22nd overall) making such an immediate impact for their respective teams, and MHJ considered more of a blue chip prospect than those WRs coming out of college, you definitely consider taking him #1. But this is also factoring in that the Bears have the 9th overall pick as well, so they have the luxury of picking him that high. He won't fall past 4.
So the Bears retained Matt Eberflus, but fired the OC and the QB coach. To me, this signals that they're committed to Fields for at least one more season and wanting to see what a fresh coaching staff on the offensive side of the ball can do for him.
Which also means that they wouldn't be trading down to the #2 spot. The Commanders know it's either them in the driver's seat for the first QB off the board, or which ever team decides to pony up the extra picks to trade with the Bears.
Personally, I think teams would be trading up for the opportunity to draft Caleb. And if I were the Commanders, I'd sit tight with Maye. Either way, this puts the Patriots on the clock for either Daniels or MHJ. (If MHJ has to go before pick #5, I hope it's with the Patriots, but that missed Prater field goal cost the Chargers the chance to draft at #4 and it would pain me to see him go one spot before they picked.)
On another note...
The coaching carousel this year is probably the best crop of HC candidates I've seen in a while:
Jim Harbaugh (if available)
Mike Vrabel
Bill Belichick (if available)
Ben Johnson
Mike McDaniel
Todd Monken
My preference for the Chargers would be Harbaugh, Vrabel, and Johnson. The only concern would be Vrabel being a defensive-minded HC, and rather than continue the OC carousel for Herbert, I'd rather have the stability on that side. Ben Johnson would help with that.
@iConsciousness
Which also means that they wouldn't be trading down to the #2 spot. The Commanders know it's either them in the driver's seat for the first QB off the board, or which ever team decides to pony up the extra picks to trade with the Bears.
Why does this mean they wouldn't be trading from 1 to 2 ??
What if the Skin's and their new ownership group feel the local kid is head and shoulders above Drake and want to guarantee they get him instead of someone else moving up to take Caleb ?? They can't be assured Chicago stays at 1 and doesn't trade the pick.
Zona is rumored to be shooting for MHJ and he'll be the popular player mocked there, outside of a Chicago trade down so I can't see the Bears moving behind Zona at 4.
If Washington feels they can't risk someone trading up to 1 and them not getting Caleb (or Maye for that matter) I see no reason they wouldn't swap with Chicago. Not that much of a cost to flip flop that one pick.
@iConsciousness Which also means that they wouldn't be trading down to the #2 spot. The Commanders know it's either them in the driver's seat for the first QB off the board, or which ever team decides to pony up the extra picks to trade with the Bears. Why does this mean they wouldn't be trading from 1 to 2 ?? What if the Skin's and their new ownership group feel the local kid is head and shoulders above Drake and want to guarantee they get him instead of someone else moving up to take Caleb ?? They can't be assured Chicago stays at 1 and doesn't trade the pick. Zona is rumored to be shooting for MHJ and he'll be the popular player mocked there, outside of a Chicago trade down so I can't see the Bears moving behind Zona at 4. If Washington feels they can't risk someone trading up to 1 and them not getting Caleb (or Maye for that matter) I see no reason they wouldn't swap with Chicago. Not that much of a cost to flip flop that one pick.
That could happen, but I also think it's likely for it to happen. They'd have to give up a lot more in draft value to move up 1 pick than a team further down would, just to get their guy. Meaning, if the Giants wanted the pick over the Commanders, the pick value calculator would net the Bears more with a trade down to 6 than to 2. The Commanders would have to overcompensate just moving one slot up to outbid the Giants. (Again, this is a hyptothetical scenario.)
I know why the Bears would do it. They trade down one spot, get their guy MHJ and acquire an extra draft pick or two. I just don't see why the Commanders would outbid the Giants or a team drafting lower than them. Maybe if it's a matter of outbidding the Patriots, who are just a pick below theirs. But until coaching staffs are formed for teams who are looking to fill them, it's hard to tell what would happen.
Everything I write is hypothetical and just an opinion.
MHJ not slipping past the Cardinals is the foregone conclusion.
And as for the Commanders' intent, I kind of see this situation playing out much like the Dolphins and Chargers with Tua and Herbert. The Chargers were fine with either of two falling to them. I think the Commanders would be in the same boat. You do bring up a good point about Caleb being from the DC area, which I actually did not know about until now.
Pete Carroll out as the Seahawks head coach, but will stay on board under an advisory role.
Updated teams now looking for a new head coach:
Raiders
Chargers
Panthers
Falcons
Commanders
Titans
Seahawks
Who do you all think would be the top coaching destination for those looking for a HC gig?
The Commanders is a sneaky good place to go to with new ownership, the most cap space heading into next season, and the #2 overall pick (not to mention the #2 pick in the 2nd round -- essentially a late 1st round pick).
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