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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    System produces high probability pick this week

    footballsmart
    Boocoop
    Kappy55
    bpickin
    Wess_Tijuana
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 2108
    Posts: 11
     
    footballsmart
    footballsmart
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    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 1270
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2017 - 12:10 PM ET #1

    I don't usually spill the beans until Saturday, but here is a Thanksgiving Day gift if you care to follow ... and if you do not like my system, just fade this for success ... either way you win :-)

    Anyway, I ran the programs based on the Super Contest lines, and Tampa Bay +9.5 (against Atlanta) came up as almost a pick of the year ... with approximately a 75% probability of being correct according to my data. 

    Let's see if it works. But keep in mind, this also means that there is a 1 in 4 chance it will not work ... but as far as picks go this year, this is probably the best so far this year. Go Bucs!

    What do you think? Is my system nuts? LOL
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I don't usually spill the beans until Saturday, but here is a Thanksgiving Day gift if you care to follow ... and if you do not like my system, just fade this for success ... either way you win :-)

    Anyway, I ran the programs based on the Super Contest lines, and Tampa Bay +9.5 (against Atlanta) came up as almost a pick of the year ... with approximately a 75% probability of being correct according to my data. 

    Let's see if it works. But keep in mind, this also means that there is a 1 in 4 chance it will not work ... but as far as picks go this year, this is probably the best so far this year. Go Bucs!

    What do you think? Is my system nuts? LOL
     
    footballsmart
    footballsmart
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    Posts: 1270
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2017 - 12:18 PM ET #2

    Quote Originally Posted by Bermenwall:

    https://www.ussinsiders.com/single-post/2017/11/23/Thursday

    lol ... are you trying to sell me bitcoins? 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Bermenwall:

    https://www.ussinsiders.com/single-post/2017/11/23/Thursday

    lol ... are you trying to sell me bitcoins? 
     
    Boocoop
    Boocoop
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    Posts: 1330
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2017 - 12:18 PM ET #3

    I like it GL 
    Reply
    I like it GL 
     
    footballsmart
    footballsmart
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    Posts: 1270
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2017 - 7:22 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by Boocoop:

    I like it GL

    Given the flood of responses to my post, it might only be you and me who like it!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by Boocoop:

    I like it GL

    Given the flood of responses to my post, it might only be you and me who like it!

     
    Kappy55
    Kappy55
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    Joined: Jan, 2016
    Posts: 83
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2017 - 12:48 PM ET #5

    Hey Fs, Onboard with ya. T.Bay +10, one of my pks.Also have Chic +14, Cinci-8, Indy+3 and Rams-a 2.5Bol

    Reply

    Hey Fs, Onboard with ya. T.Bay +10, one of my pks.Also have Chic +14, Cinci-8, Indy+3 and Rams-a 2.5Bol

     
    bpickin
    bpickin
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    Posts: 13189
    Posted: Nov. 24, 2017 - 1:48 PM ET #6

    What is your record on these 75% or better probability picks?
    Reply
    What is your record on these 75% or better probability picks?
     
    footballsmart
    footballsmart
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    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 1270
    Posted: Nov. 25, 2017 - 11:55 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

    What is your record on these 75% or better probability picks?

    Good question. I have not had enough of them to make it matter in this public test I have been doing. It is definitely better than 60%. However, I wil share this:  In my extensive research of 34 years of NFL games, I got an overall system result around 55% picking 5 teams each week, and that was over 7000 games. But when I ran the program again in which I limited to only the single absolute best pick each week --- a pick that would have an expected success rate between 60% and 78% --- it lowered my number of observations considerably but yielded a much better success rate --- not up to 75% which is impossible in this universe, but it was a very encouraging result that from what I recall approached 64% or 65%. And this is what many do not know and why I am so encouraged by what I am doing. Even if I can only muster a long-term success rate of 53, 54 or 55% doing the 5 picks a week (and as I have said numerous times I need an n of 500 before it is even statistically valid), there is the card up my sleeve of moving to a system that only makes one, if one, pick a week, and what I am about 99% sure will yield success rates over 60%. That keeps me excited for the future. For now, I am content playing contests and establishing the 5 picks a week success rate ... but I am smiling inside about what I have created.  

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

    What is your record on these 75% or better probability picks?

    Good question. I have not had enough of them to make it matter in this public test I have been doing. It is definitely better than 60%. However, I wil share this:  In my extensive research of 34 years of NFL games, I got an overall system result around 55% picking 5 teams each week, and that was over 7000 games. But when I ran the program again in which I limited to only the single absolute best pick each week --- a pick that would have an expected success rate between 60% and 78% --- it lowered my number of observations considerably but yielded a much better success rate --- not up to 75% which is impossible in this universe, but it was a very encouraging result that from what I recall approached 64% or 65%. And this is what many do not know and why I am so encouraged by what I am doing. Even if I can only muster a long-term success rate of 53, 54 or 55% doing the 5 picks a week (and as I have said numerous times I need an n of 500 before it is even statistically valid), there is the card up my sleeve of moving to a system that only makes one, if one, pick a week, and what I am about 99% sure will yield success rates over 60%. That keeps me excited for the future. For now, I am content playing contests and establishing the 5 picks a week success rate ... but I am smiling inside about what I have created.  

     

     
    footballsmart
    footballsmart
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    Joined: Sep, 2014
    Posts: 1270
    Posted: Nov. 25, 2017 - 12:02 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

    b pickin 75% means 75 wins 25 losses over a 100 game result

    Of course that is correct Zebra, but with a pretty solid understanding of statistics, I am also aware that an n of 100 sample size is really way way too small to say that it was a valid estimate of the population. Sure, if you look at 1000 cappers you are sure to find a few that can get 75% success rate over 100 games. But I will tell you this with total confidence. There is no capper in the world, and there will never be any capper in the world, that would be able to maintain 75% success over 500 or even 300 games. That is so astronomically rare that it would simply never happen. My extensive research shows that the limit of capping ability over 1000 or 1500 games should be around 55%. If you can find a capper who gets 56% success over 2000 games, this would indeed be the absolute best capper to walk the planet. Forget about 75% long-term. It is a mirage caused by statisical error only. And that is why when my modeling shows that making only 1 or less than one pick a week on average, I can get over 60%, I am so thrilled by my system. But for now I want to see how well it can do making 5 picks a week over 500 games. And if it gets to 53, 54 or 55% it is very very very good!

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

    b pickin 75% means 75 wins 25 losses over a 100 game result

    Of course that is correct Zebra, but with a pretty solid understanding of statistics, I am also aware that an n of 100 sample size is really way way too small to say that it was a valid estimate of the population. Sure, if you look at 1000 cappers you are sure to find a few that can get 75% success rate over 100 games. But I will tell you this with total confidence. There is no capper in the world, and there will never be any capper in the world, that would be able to maintain 75% success over 500 or even 300 games. That is so astronomically rare that it would simply never happen. My extensive research shows that the limit of capping ability over 1000 or 1500 games should be around 55%. If you can find a capper who gets 56% success over 2000 games, this would indeed be the absolute best capper to walk the planet. Forget about 75% long-term. It is a mirage caused by statisical error only. And that is why when my modeling shows that making only 1 or less than one pick a week on average, I can get over 60%, I am so thrilled by my system. But for now I want to see how well it can do making 5 picks a week over 500 games. And if it gets to 53, 54 or 55% it is very very very good!

     

     
    Wess_Tijuana
    Wess_Tijuana
    Prospect
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    Joined: May, 2015
    Posts: 268
    Posted: Nov. 25, 2017 - 7:28 PM ET #9

    Really like it

    Atlanta outplayed statistically on Monday by Seattle

    Frankly, they were outplayed, period...turnovers the difference

    Now at +10 and likely to rise-


    Reply
    Really like it

    Atlanta outplayed statistically on Monday by Seattle

    Frankly, they were outplayed, period...turnovers the difference

    Now at +10 and likely to rise-


     
    erratic
    erratic
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    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 289
    Posted: Nov. 25, 2017 - 8:17 PM ET #10

    TB is on my ticket too... very high probability from my sheets as well.
    BOL to both of us
    Reply
    TB is on my ticket too... very high probability from my sheets as well.
    BOL to both of us
     
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 6470
    Posted: Nov. 25, 2017 - 8:19 PM ET #11

    Thanks for disclosing your extra-strong picks.  Good luck.
    Reply
    Thanks for disclosing your extra-strong picks.  Good luck.
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