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Superbowl Props

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Posted: #1
Hi guys ... Some of the team props are starting to come up . I'll be adding to this thread as I hit them. For me I get more enjoyment out of  this game trying to figure out props I like and use my fantasy football experience to make small bets with greater odds.
 
I am not picking a side or total for this game... Makes little difference to me except I have a small 5-1 Future bet on Cards to win it all.
 
 
Team to Score First will win this Game?
No  +150  1 Unit    - I love propositions like this where it is still a 50/50 chance of covering despite an early FG or TD. It is like flipping a coin with + money
 
Longest FG made?
Arizona -115 1 Unit  Rackers has always had a big leg this season he went 25/28 Long 54.  Reed kind of gets a bad wrap as I think of Heinz Field and never a kick being made over 50 yards. His season went 27/31 Long 53.  I think the Steelers defense based on regular season had #1 Total D. Although Arizona D has stepped it up in the playoffs. Going to play % with the #1 D to stop Arizona on a scoring drive to set up a longer FG.
 
Check back throughout week and contribute plays as I add them.
 
 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3
Ok tex... Good luck bro
 
Hit a bunch ... Fitz a TD -150 1/2 Unit
                     Boldin a TD -115 1 Unit  < Like this with the fact Fitz got all the TD's last week
 
Most completions Ben versus Warner
 Ben +6.5  -115 1 Unit
 
Total points scored by Pitt
Under 27.5 -115 1 Unit
 
Receptions by S Holmes ...Gimpy Ward means more looks for Holmes
Over 4.5 -105  1 Unit
 
Longest completion Warner
Under 43.5 yards -115 1 Unit
 
Warner total TD passes
Over 1.5 -115 1 Unit
 
That ought to satisfy my need for some early plays 
 
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Posted: #4
Good Luck Sir...those are some solid observations.
 
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Posted: #5
Thanks guys... Already some better line movement against some of my plays so getting some more in at the better numbers
 
Fitz to catch a TD down to -105   Added 1 Unit
 
Boldin to catch a TD -105 1/2 Unit
 
S. Holmes Over 4.5 receptions +160 1 Unit
 
Most of the other plays money moving the other way 
 
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Posted: #6
I like this one number of players to attempt a pass,  over 2.5 @ +180 (CARIB).  Both coaches/offensive co-ordinators like trick plays.  Plus you never know, one QB may get hurt or the game could be a rout.  I'll take a chance at +180.
 
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by bagzman:

I like this one number of players to attempt a pass,  over 2.5 @ +180 (CARIB).  Both coaches/offensive co-ordinators like trick plays.  Plus you never know, one QB may get hurt or the game could be a rout.  I'll take a chance at +180.
 

 

respectfully, that's pretty sketch if you ask me, a sucker bet...the only way any "trick plays" or "wildcat" plays are going to be run is if the score is lopsided. I see both teams playing really conservative, which would than have you cornered hoping that a QB gets injured...i would say you have a better chance predicting the coin flip to be tails...

 

regards,

Tails never fails baby!!!

 
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Posted: #8
Total Number of Different Cardinals to Score - Includes Kickers
 
over/under 3
 
this is a lock for the over....stone cold.
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Just got holmes over 3.5

Never would have noticed that one.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by JoeyDiamondz:

Total Number of Different Cardinals to Score - Includes Kickers
 
over/under 3
 
this is a lock for the over....stone cold.


Joey, you're new.  The "L" word is not used around here.  Yikes.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by JoeyDiamondz:

Total Number of Different Cardinals to Score - Includes Kickers
 
over/under 3
 
this is a lock for the over....stone cold.


Lock for the over? For this to go over, the Cards need to score AT LEAST 24 pts (3 tds from 3 different players and a Rackers fg) Considering the game total is 46, the Cards getting to 24 would not be that easy AND if someone scores multiple tds (Fitsy, Edgerrin whoever) then you have an EXTREME disadvantage in getting to 4.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

Ok tex... Good luck bro
 
Hit a bunch ... Fitz a TD -150 1/2 Unit
                     Boldin a TD -115 1 Unit  < Like this with the fact Fitz got all the TD's last week
 
Most completions Ben versus Warner
 Ben +6.5  -115 1 Unit
 
Total points scored by Pitt
Under 27.5 -115 1 Unit
 
Receptions by S Holmes ...Gimpy Ward means more looks for Holmes
Over 4.5 -105  1 Unit
 
Longest completion Warner
Under 43.5 yards -115 1 Unit
 
Warner total TD passes
Over 1.5 -115 1 Unit
 
That ought to satisfy my need for some early plays 


is it safe to extrapolate that you think it'll be a close game, piles?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



Lock for the over? For this to go over, the Cards need to score AT LEAST 24 pts (3 tds from 3 different players and a Rackers fg) Considering the game total is 46, the Cards getting to 24 would not be that easy AND if someone scores multiple tds (Fitsy, Edgerrin whoever) then you have an EXTREME disadvantage in getting to 4.


extra points would count, i think.  safeties would count.  defensive td's would count.  lots of possibilities here.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:



extra points would count, i think.  safeties would count.  defensive td's would count.  lots of possibilities here.


Safeties do not count, it says on the wager. I don't think extra points count, but even if they do, you still need atleast 24 pts to win, and say a player scores 2 tds, you need 31 from the Cards...
 
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Posted: #15
Sorry IF extra points count, you would need a minimum of 21 with 3 tds. But like I said, I do not think they count, only made fgs.
 
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Posted: #16
Extra pts. count.  Safeties don't.  Two pt. conversions count.  Wouldn't say it's stone cold, either way, if you catch my drift.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

Extra pts. count.  Safeties don't.  Two pt. conversions count.  Wouldn't say it's stone cold, either way, if you catch my drift.


Did you call the sportsbook to find out? Because it does not make clear on the bet whether they do or not.
 
Legend
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

Thanks guys... Already some better line movement against some of my plays so getting some more in at the better numbers
 
Fitz to catch a TD down to -105   Added 1 Unit
 
Boldin to catch a TD -105 1/2 Unit
 
S. Holmes Over 4.5 receptions +160 1 Unit
 
Most of the other plays money moving the other way 

whats up Bustin???

Can you think of any reason the Holmes o/u 4.5 receptions went from -105 to +160 ?? Even if Ward is completely healthy thats a HUGE jump and would make me think twice about taking it....somethings not right.

gl BP, like the plays

 
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Posted: #19
bagzman- Interesting prop my brother who always goes to Vegas for the SB usually plays something like that... Not sure how it has faired historically.
 
Over under 3 players to score...Seems like it could be a push. Let's not forget Fitz accounted for 3 of those TD's last week. I doubt the Cards will have as much success running the ball...so unlikely James or Hightower getin. 
 
Skip - I try to seperate emotion and capping the game.
 
Kurt Warner is just a great story ...Guy was bagging groceries and playing arena ball...To MVP and Superbowl champ QB to a cast off to the NY Giants and to back up Leinhart with whatever thumb or hand injury he has battled with fumbles. I hope he pulls it off. He has competed well in the biggest of games in the past so he has that going for him.
 
But Steelers have to be the most tested team in the pros did they or not line up for the 2nd half of the season with the big game of the week NYG,INDY, SD, NE, DALLAS, BAL, TENN . We saw this translate well in NCAAF with Florida playing in the SEC versus Oklahoma and we know how that turned out.
 
I invision the Steelers winning this game 7 out of 10 times...by a margin between 4 -13 points. So I am close to a 50/50 on the win and cover. 
 
Definite pass on side...but hoping for some Cardinals magic
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #20
Train- Not sure about that line movement on the Holmes prop I guess it has something to do with the fact with Ward out he still only got 2 grabs against Baltimore.  Just have a gut feeling he is going to be a bigger part of their offense in this game.
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #21
Ok These were already played.... Was a little aggressive when plays started coming up and a lot better value became available later on some of the props requiring a double play on some.
 
Team to Score First will win this Game?
No  +150  1 Unit   
Longest FG made?
Arizona -115 1 Unit 
 
Fitz a TD -150 1/2 Unit
Fitz  a TD  -105  1 Unit
 
Boldin a TD -105 1/2 Unit
Boldin a TD -115 1 Unit 
 
Most completions Ben versus Warner
 Ben +6.5  -115 1 Unit
 
Total points scored by Pitt
Under 27.5 -115 1 Unit
 
Receptions by S Holmes 
Over 4.5 -105  1 Unit
 Over 4.5 receptions +160 1 Unit
 
Longest completion Warner
Under 43.5 yards -115 1 Unit
 
Warner total TD passes
Over 1.5 -115 1 Unit
 
ADDING:
 
+ money combined proposition...Hit this with the Giants on 1st and 2nd half last year. Remember only need to hit one half
to  make $... But if both halfes hit better
 
Team to Score 1st:
Arizona +130  1 Unit
 
Team to Score 1st in 2nd half
Arizona +120  1 Unit
 
Team to get first 1st down - Pitt +110  1 Unit... Don't understand this whatever but I'm not going to take Arizona -140
 
Most receiving yards : S Holmes 1 unit  12/5
 
Player to score 1st TD :
Fitz  1/2 Unit  6-1
Holmes  1/2 Unit 6-1
Boldin 1/2 Unit 9-1
Field  1/2 Unit 5-1
 
Team to score 1st and outcome: Combined prop
 
Arizona scores 1st and Pitt wins   1 Unit
2-1
Pitt scores 1st and Arizona wins    1 Unit
 5-1
 
That is a wrap for me good luck on all your wagers
 
Legend
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by BustinPiles:

Ok These were already played.... Was a little aggressive when plays started coming up and a lot better value became available later on some of the props requiring a double play on some.
 
Team to Score First will win this Game?
No  +150  1 Unit   
Longest FG made?
Arizona -115 1 Unit 
 
Fitz a TD -150 1/2 Unit
Fitz  a TD  -105  1 Unit
 
Boldin a TD -105 1/2 Unit
Boldin a TD -115 1 Unit 
 
Most completions Ben versus Warner
 Ben +6.5  -115 1 Unit
 
Total points scored by Pitt
Under 27.5 -115 1 Unit
 
Receptions by S Holmes 
Over 4.5 -105  1 Unit
 Over 4.5 receptions +160 1 Unit
 
Longest completion Warner
Under 43.5 yards -115 1 Unit
 
Warner total TD passes
Over 1.5 -115 1 Unit
 
ADDING:
 
+ money combined proposition...Hit this with the Giants on 1st and 2nd half last year. Remember only need to hit one half
to  make $... But if both halfes hit better
 
Team to Score 1st:
Arizona +130  1 Unit
 
Team to Score 1st in 2nd half
Arizona +120  1 Unit
 
Team to get first 1st down - Pitt +110  1 Unit... Don't understand this whatever but I'm not going to take Arizona -140
 
Most receiving yards : S Holmes 1 unit  12/5
 
Player to score 1st TD :
Fitz  1/2 Unit  6-1
Holmes  1/2 Unit 6-1
Boldin 1/2 Unit 9-1
Field  1/2 Unit 5-1
 
Team to score 1st and outcome: Combined prop
 
Arizona scores 1st and Pitt wins   1 Unit
2-1
Pitt scores 1st and Arizona wins    1 Unit
 5-1
 
That is a wrap for me good luck on all your wagers

 

Pretty sure the Steelers are +110 to get the 1st 1st down because everyone is thinking AZ will get the ball 1st.....thus they are -140

 

gl bro...like most of them

 
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Posted: #23

Train- I guess so, but I could still see the Cards deferring the toss.

Found some  more I like Under 9.5  1st Quarter(-105)   1 Unit

Exact points scored by Arizona 14-17  3-1  1/2 unit

                                       Arizona 18-21  7-2   1/2 unit

                                       Pittsburgh  22-26  3-1  1/2 unit

                                        Pittsburgh  18-21 7-2  1/2 unit

Going to need a slide rule to figure out how I fair with these propositions. 

Let's enjoy the game  and wrap up the season 

 

 

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #24
GL BustinPiles
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
 
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Posted: #25
  BP
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