Super Bowl tech angles

Well, I am mostly relieved and proud of myself that I am not betting against Mahomes/Reid in a playoff game this season....lol.

@Indigo999

True dat. KC +2 

We're about ready to find out boys and girls

Thought I had a chance on the Moody field goal attempt....he made a great kick.

Teams ahead at halftime in the Super Bowl have been 11-8 straight up for the game.

These teams ahead at half time were 4-7 ATS, 7-4 straight up (+2.27) for the game if they were favored.

Congrats Chiefs backers......Andy Reid schemes his way to another Super Bowl victory as he did last year......very fortunate win.

49ers played a whale of a game.

See you next year!

@Indigo999

The decision for Shanahan to take the ball first in overtime, right or wrong?

The rules in the NFL for the playoffs are that both teams get one possession, unless the defensive team scores a safety or a TD on the first possession.  If that does not occur, the team not possessing the ball first gets the ball with a chance after their opponent has gotten their chance, to exceed or equal the first team's score.  If they exceed it, they win, the game is over.  If they equal it, the game then becomes sudden death, which is the difference between the college game and the pro game...in the college game both teams get an equal amount of possessions unless the defense scores and this is NOT true for the NFL in the playoffs.

So, there is quite a lot of debate with good points on both sides.  Listening to Shanahan, he knew the rules correctly, though it sounds like his players didn't. 

I would have deferred, because you then know what is required and you can then go for it on fourth down if you are behind in your own territory, which happened when the Chiefs went for it on fourth and 1 on around their own 20 yard line.  You have the advantage also of winning the game on a defensive score when the opponent possesses the ball first.

The disadvantage for the second possessing team is having a tied score after both teams have possessed the ball once.   

If the score is tied after both teams have had the ball once, sudden death now happens.

However, a sudden death game could be negated by going for two if both teams scored touchdowns in overtime, which a team should almost certainly do in that situation, rather than expecting your defense to shutout their opponent on the third possession of overtime.   There's advantages in both situations, possessing it first or possessing the ball second.

The one situation I didn't understand in the game was why the Chiefs were letting the clock run out with a time out remaining in overtime.  However, I have just read the overtime time clock  expiring  isn't the end of the game,........the game would've continued on to another overtime period until the Chiefs would've finished their drive, so kudos to the coaching staff for knowing that.

I suppose we will hear what a computer running 10,000 simulations will say about what the higher percentage play is.....I'll be interested in finding out the results of a multiple game simulation.

Obnoxious asshxles should be boxed ASAP and the second violation should result in a permanent ban.  Save the contentiousness for the Politics forum where it is expected.

Congratulations on your entire season, I9.  Yes, KC was lucky.  I will explore that.

@Indigo999

  congrats to a great season.

Thanks for the nice words.....I'm thankful I had a good playoffs...the regular season was abysmal for me as non-divisional away Sunday dogs from week 2 to week 17 had 15 out of 16 non-winning weeks (week 11 they went 3-0-1 ATS) if you can imagine that, going 30-45 ATS in its entirety.   They should be back to their usual lucrative selves next season.

AD and not DIV and season=2023 and 18>week>1 and day=Sunday and week

The AFC West and NFC Central should be the two best divisions in football next season....I may look to take those teams in out-of-division games.  Chiefs, as mentioned I'll look to fade as they've been poor against the spread when defending a title, and should be doubly difficult for them defending two consecutive championships.....they will be favored in 90% of their games.  Mahomes, I'll predict it here may have serious injury problems for the first time in his career.....he turns 29 years old in September which for that year can be a difficult time in one's life.

We'll stay humble and proceed with meticulousness and care that this kind of passion demands.

All the best....

Thanks buddy......

Indigo999 said:

Thanks for the nice words.....I'm thankful I had a good playoffs...the regular season was abysmal for me as non-divisional away Sunday dogs from week 2 to week 17 had 15 out of 16 non-winning weeks (week 11 they went 3-0-1 ATS) if you can imagine that, going 30-45 ATS in its entirety. They should be back to their usual lucrative selves next season.

AD and not DIV and season=2023 and 18>week>1 and day=Sunday and week

The AFC West and NFC Central should be the two best divisions in football next season....I may look to take those teams in out-of-division games. Chiefs, as mentioned I'll look to fade as they've been poor against the spread when defending a title, and should be doubly difficult for them defending two consecutive championships.....they will be favored in 90% of their games. Mahomes, I'll predict it here may have serious injury problems for the first time in his career.....he turns 29 years old in September which for that year can be a difficult time in one's life.

*******

I checked AD and season:  48.5% this season and 12 of the last 15 were higher than that.  Chalkbites had an unusually good season.

I don't bet many futures, but I did have this reaction to your thoughts on upcoming strength in the AFC West and NFC Central:  If overall improvement in those divisions is priced into higher futures lines would there be potential value in the Unders because they have to play each other twice?

I don't play futures as tying up part of one's bankroll for 5 months is not a good policy....I don't have any opinion on whether UNDERs would be a +EV type situation....I put coaches at the highest hierarchy as far as determining wanting to bet on a team, and I feel that is more important now, more than ever....we could see that in the Super Bowl as. Andy Reid basically outschemed the 49ers' defense when KC scored their two touchdowns....and he was excellent against the spread even before he had Mahomes.

And then we have the lesser coaches like Shanahan who can put a team together and is excellent at game preparation during the week, but then things tend to fall apart for him when the game goes live....if one has played sports for a long period of time, we've been exposed to guys that were all-world in practice, but when the missiles and bullets start flying they cannot function at a high level.

And then there are mediocre practice players that when the bright lights turn on, they become a different, better functioning animal.

A quarterback and a coach is 75% of your team and your ability to cover....we saw that a day ago as the 49ers were the far more talented team....it'll be interesting who the Raiders and the Broncos end up getting to become their quarterback,...I'm looking forward to seeing it.

good stuff Indigo 

@Indigo999

 I agree with everything you said and was a lot of my logic in betting kc.  However, I think Kyle and Purdy both did better than I anticipated and will be keeping that in my stack of data for next year. 

Chiefs to probably no one's surprise have cut Valdes-Scantling, who was probably the worst receiver I've ever seen in the NFL for the first 2/3s of the NFL season....I give him credit, he got his act together at the very end and made a couple of clutch plays for the Chiefs.

The only guy I can recall that was his equivalent was Troy Williamson that was drafted 7th overall by the Vikings, who could run like Tyreek Hill, but could not catch a football....he somehow lasted five seasons in the NFL.

If Vegas put a number of 11.5 on the Chiefs for season wins, I will be playing them UNDER.

They have 8 home games.....Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Ravens, Bengals, Saints, Bucs, Texans

They have 9 away games....Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, Browns, Steelers, Bills, 49ers

Trying to make an equivalent history a team that won more than 10 games and won the Super Bowl the next season as:

Home favorites....241-234-11 ATS, 355-131 straight up, 73%

Away dogs..........96-96-9 ATS, 73-128 straight up, 36.3%

Away favorites.....153-172-10 ATS, 223-112 straight up, 66%

Based on that history, we would expect the Chiefs to win 6 home games out of the 8 they play.  Using straight history only, we would compute that they would win 5 out of their 9 away games to get to 11 wins.

However, there are some other factors to be looked at.  Their division is gonna be very tough this year, and for years to come.  They will win at best, 4 divisional games this season, as even the Broncos who were not a good team last season played them tough in both games.  ALL three of their divisional rivals are gonna be much better this season.  If they have a future on the Chiefs NOT to win their division at +200 or +250, I might take it.

Super Bowl winners typically lose the rematch the following season...they have to play at San Fran, they have to play at Buffalo and at Cleveland, if they win more than one of those games, where they probably will be underdogs I will be surprised.

And in today's modern football, two time defending champs can't get it up like they did the past two seasons, in any team sport.  Their lines are going to be very high, and especially at home where Andy Reid has only been an average against the spread coach....as mentioned before, put him on the road, in divisional games and he is the GOAT....they have to play home games versus regular-season-Lamar in a revenge game for the Ravens, the Bengals, Chargers, Texans and Raiders 

In the past when the Chiefs defended a title, they have gone 7-9 ATS, 10-6 straight up at home, and 7-8-1 ATS, 14-2 straight up on the road.

In November/December/January in those years, they've gone 5-12-1 ATS in the regular season.....look for this team to get worn down by mental fatigue and injuries by the second half of the season.

Chiefs cont.

We add the three divisional games on the road,....in no way do I think the Chiefs sweep their divisional rivals on the road next year...just in the games I've mentioned, that could be six or seven losses in half of their schedule.

Also, Matt Nagy is now the offensive coordinator...the Chiefs' defense carried them to a title this year,...the offense was nothing flash.  Watching the Chiefs' offensive production this year and watching the Bears when Nagy was head coach, there is nothing to inspire us to believe that Nagy is anything but a mediocre coach, at best.

Sure, the Chiefs can't be any worse at the wide receiver position this coming season, and they should be better.

Now, I've said that the Reid/Mahomes combination is similar to Jordan/Jackson who won six straight titles with the Bulls (Jordan took two years off to play baseball) and Auerbach/Russell of the Celtics who won 10 out of 12 titles in 12 years (they won their last title with Russell as the head coach) and Gretzky of the Oilers.

They are epically great....they could do "it" again, but at a minimum, they will not be a good point spread team next season and in the worst case scenario they could miss the playoffs.  

Remember, Brady/Belichick never won three in a row with the Patriots.

I9, I enjoyed the observations and research in Comments #166 and #167, but for some reason my upvotes did not register.  This comment expresses my appreciation.

Ditto

professor,always processing is a wonderful thing...THX

Likewise, nice to hear from you....we're all experts in the off-season, before the bullets start flying!....lol.

My two favorite futures for next season......

  1)  Lions to win the Super Bowl +1300

  2)  Packers +2200

We are looking at this as an investment.....one of these two teams will win the division and both should make the playoffs.  Both of them have odds high enough to hedge in multiple games in the playoffs.  As it gets closer to the beginning of the season, it may be that I'd play either to win the NFC, rather than the Super Bowl, as the AFC looks stronger than the NFC.....the NFC North's opponents look fairly easy, and one of these two teams could get two home playoff games on account of their regular season record being better than the rest of the league as the Lions did last year, before going on the road to play the 49ers in the NFC Championship game.

Keep in mind that though the 49ers on paper should be excellent next year, they have the dreaded Super Bowl runner-up hex upon their shoulders.  Often disaster strikes those teams, as it did for the Eagles in the last part of the  season.

Dan Campbell is now 37-17 ATS as a head coach....that is unprecedented...it clearly shows what he can do.  The biggest question mark for the Lions is if their offensive coordinator will return, which it seems as if he almost certainly will.  The other question mark is about their quarterback....I don't personally like him that much, but he is a quarterback that I would put somewhere in the range of 9-15 in league rankings and that could be good enough.

Will the Lions keep crushing the point spread?.....I doubt it, as their average line when Campbell has been coach is +2.2....they should have an average line of about -3 this season.  Compared to the Chiefs' schedule, it is a cakewalk. 

I'll list their 2024 opponents and come up with an Indigo season wins prognostication.

Home games......Vikings, Bears, Packers, Rams, Seahawks, Titans, Jaguars, Bills, Bucs

Away games......Vikings, Bears, Packers, Cardinals, Texans, Colts, 49ers, Cowboys

We'll be conservative and say they win four divisional games out of six.

They will be favorites by more than 3 points in every other home game except the Bills game....we'll predict five other home wins.

Out of their five non-divisional away games we'll predict they lose three...... to the Cowboys, 49ers and perhaps the Texans.

That gives us 11 wins....without looking at their schedule I would've set their line at 10.5....

We'll make their season win total 10.5, -130

Now the Packers......

Jordan Love has proved to me he is a top 10 quarterback,...had some growing pains in his first half season as an NFL starter and then blitzkrieged the league the second half.  His wide receiver core was very young and nothing outstanding.....it was Love making them look good, not vice versa.

Packers had the youngest team in the league last season, and put a legitimate scare into the 49ers in their playoff game, and played them just as tough as the Lions did.  They are a team on the rise.

The question is,.....

"Will they have one season where they fall back?"... as teams that rise suddenly often have trouble the next season, as we saw with the Vikings and the Giants this past season.  They took care of a blatant deficiency in their team by getting rid of their defensive coordinator and hiring Hadley who should vastly improve their defense.  

Mike LaFleur has been 53-37 ATS against the point spread in his career, along with a mighty impressive 11-8 ATS record  (+4.17) last season, with the youngest team in the league and a quarterback starting his first season in the NFL.........THAT was impressive! 

Remember, we want to back teams with good coaches combined with good quarterbacks that are ascending, those two entities together trumps  what the rest of the team brings to the table.

Here is their listed opponents for the 2024 season...

Home.....Vikings, Bears, Lions, Cardinals, 49ers, Texans, Colts, Dolphins, Saints

Away.....Vikings, Bears, Lions, Jaguars, Titans, Rams, Eagles, Seahawks

We'll conservatively pick them to go 3-3 in division, 4-2 in home non-divisional games, and 3-2 in non-divisional away games to get to 10-7 for the season.

Would make their season wins line at 10, -110

I think Vegas will make their line 9.5, -120

I am not sure that Vegas has caught up with this team yet, as they may have with the Lions...they look like a play-on to me.

Their games against the Lions this year ought to be excellent viewing.

+2200 is  a very sweet line with opportunities to hedge if/when they make the playoffs.

Keep in mind we want to avoid futures going OVER when we have a questionable coach, a poor quarterback, new quarterback or uncertainty at the quarterback position.....teams that come to mind are the Falcons, Vikings and Bears.

We like when our futures teams have a couple of bad teams in their division...divisions this year fitting that description will be the NFC South, NFC East and AFC South.

We want to avoid future OVERs when there are four good teams in the division like the AFC North. 

For example I like the Steelers this year, as they finally should have a running game with the hiring of Smith as offensive coordinator, but who's going to play quarterback for them?....if they step out of character and get Cousins to quarterback them, ok, then I like their chances of exceeding the public's expectations of them, but they still have to play the Ravens, Browns and Bengals six games.

Take a look at a team's  ov/unders on "Division Wins",... not a very popular bet, but William Hill offers it.  Should be available later in the year closer to pre-season.  

@Rush51

 Thanks for that info.

@Indigo999

 Really good, well-thought out information all around.  

I'll say the same thing I mentioned to DogbiteWilliams... take a look at "Divisional Wins" ov/unders.  You've gone through the process of forecasting this on a divisional level, so you may find some good opportunities, instead of the standard "Total Wins"  ov/under offered by 'books.