Super Bowl tech angles

Thanks, I love stories like that, especially with a happy ending.

If you are thinking out loud that I may be regretting my Chiefs bet,....no I am not regretting it.....I regret that I didn't get the optimal line, which of course I'll regret even more if the Chiefs lose by a point or two......lol.

I would have played this more than I have (3 units) if the public was not on the Chiefs as much as they are, so the public has acted like a break for my enthusiasm.

I think the Chiefs win and Purdy doesn't play too well.

"Discretion is the better part of valor".

Shakespeare

As a student of the game, I really enjoying the information on here.  

Thank you

Sure, appreciate you stopping by.

Let's talk about calculated line and how that has worked out for the Super Bowl.

We take the average scoring margin of the two teams....

  a)  For the 49ers, they've outscored their opponents by 28.9-18.4 this season for an average scoring margin of +10.5

  b)  For the Chiefs, they've outscored their opponents by 22.1-16.8 for a margin of +5.3

Vegas (and you should) calculate the lines by subtracting the weaker performing team's average per game scoring margin from the stronger team's.  WE DON'T AVERAGE, WE SUBTRACT!!

The calculated line is the 49ers by 5.2

If we input the data here is the query text for that.

D and not C and playoffs=1 and line<oA(margin)-tA(margin)

A Super Bowl dog where the line is less than the calculated line has gone 4-2 ATS (+6.42) and 4-2 (+2.33) ................with an average score of 25.3-23

We can add that to the plethora of other angles that favor the Chiefs.

Favorites in the Super Bowl with an average scoring margin of over 10 points/game have gone 2-8 ats (-13.55),  3-7 straight up (-8.10) in the Super Bowl since 2002.....VERSUS 49ers

Dogs in the Super Bowl with an average scoring margin of <10 points/game have gone 11-4 ATS (+5.93), 7-8 straight up (+0.87)....ON Chiefs

When the above two parameters are combined this has been 5-2 ATS, 4-3 straight up, with one of the losses being the Falcons loss to the Patriots...the unloseable game that lost....the other loss was the Seahawks loss on their  goal line interception in the last minute.

This year's Super Bowl is a classic clash, not only of the two teams, but of handicapping philosophy, that of technical handicapping versus "value".

"What's the difference?" you ask.

I have touched on this before and first off I am of the belief that to have a methodology where there is some set rules or parameters one uses is much more likely to produce winning results than someone who doesn't have any.  That leads to situations where, as one of this forum's prominent handicappers says rightly, that sometimes you will be  on teams that you think will lose.  It is almost a prerequisite to be a winner that there will be times that you follow your parameters and take teams when you really don't like that team or that situation, but your betting rules dictate the play.  MacDonalds owners  succeed, not because they make the best food, but because they have a system of success that if followed makes a successful business.  We are systematic in many areas of our lives...having a system in place for handicapping should be no different.

All the power ratings and DVOA ratings for this super bowl are favoring the 49ers....the ones I've seen anywhere from 3.5 to 5 points.  A value handicapper will then make that play on San Fran because his/her belief is that the market has undervalued them....that is the essence of what he does.

A technical handicapper will look at past situations and will attempt to match the present situation with (hopefully a lot of) other past situations that closely parallel what is transpiring right now.  They would be of the belief that what has happens in the past will repeat itself in the future.  You would either resonate with this idea or you won't, and of course that would determine whether technical handicapping would be what you do as a handicapper.  A technical handicapper disregards value and thinks that a situation will cause or allow a team to perform better than what the market expects and/or their present opponent will perform worse than would be expected.

"Which one is right?"...isn't the question, but "what is right for you?"  

Assuming you have a handicapping method (possibly a big ask),...does sticking to this methodology, over time increase your bankroll, yes or no?

If it doesn't or hasn't, first one needs to take an honest look at your results, and if you are a losing bettor, even though you may succeed in every other parts of your life, you will need to do one of four  things:

  a)  Quit betting

  b)  Change and improve your handicapping methodology

  c)  Follow a winner

  d). Fade a loser

I will add onto my bet that is now 3 units on the Chiefs IF the line gets to 3.....which I would be shocked if that transpired....something like Bill Gates walking into a sportsbook and putting one of his sixty  billion dollars on the 49ers would have to happen for the line maker to put it up to 3.

Nice work. GL 

Thank you, appreciated your time and effort to share. Can I ask you this question ? Do you think if a combination of value and technical would yield a better result, especially when the technical assessment confirms the value assessment ?

Everyone needs to remember

The Super Bowl is ONE stupid game

Just ONE

There will be better bets to be made on action the next fricken day!

Also

Think long

Think wrong

@anNFLfan

May I chime in? I can hire quants all day long for $100k a year. All of the stats are stats. Everyone has them.

Coaches make $10 million a year. They are paid for feel. Intuition. Anticipating. Going by their gut. Which after all, is gained by their experience.

The good ones are rare. 

Which brings me to betting on sports. 1 out a 1,000 actually make money. Quants can quant. Intuition and feel, like a stock trader-hedge fund manager, goes by the feel of the market.

I agree on your first thought BUT disagree on the second.

Would not:

Think smart, not with your heart.

Defeat recency bias and you are home free.

I'd definitely would fall more into the technical side rather than the analytical but doesn't hurt to incorporate a little of both. Thanks for the breakdown 

Thank you, appreciated your time and effort to share. Can I ask you this question ? Do you think if a combination of value and technical would yield a better result, especially when the technical assessment confirms the value assessment ?[/Quote]

Well, opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.....lol.

I think if one optimizes too much I believe it lessens the success rate, rather than increases it, so my opinion is that it is more efficient to do one, but not both at the same time. 

If I have an angle that has a historical success rate of 57%, and I also use an efficient power rating system that has hit 57% over a series of years....when those two methods are married in theory we should hit around 64% of our picks when both methodologies are on the same side.....except that kind of performance  doesn't happen and I've seen things like that perform below the mendoza line.  I would do one or the other.

We should strive to hit between 57-60% of our picks and not try to optimize higher.....you may hit over that over the course of month, a season or a year, or maybe longer if you are the very, very rare exception to the rule, but that should not be your focus.

The superbook contest winners approach a 67-70% winning percentage for a season, but I know only one that has repeated that performance.

Billy Walters never claimed that he hit over 57% of his picks over the long-term.

I will start this off with a tip of the hat to your success. Rarely do I peek in or respond to a thread, but kudos on your success once again!    CMC 123 RUSHING YDS 2TD's SB MVP 

Thanks.....I'm looking forward to the game.

Since propmania is alive and well...I'll throw out some opinions that are totally off the cuff...I don't have a database to refer to like I do for against the spread and totals in football, and I've never played fantasy sports.  Don't put any serious money on these picks!!

  a)  Butker OVER 1.5 field goals....-115

  b)  Purdy OVER .5 interceptions.....-115 

  c)  Moody at least one missed field goal +250

  d)  Samuel longest reception OVER 21.5 yards -110

  e)  Mahomes scores a touchdown +370

And my longshot prop of the century..........

  f)  Chris Jones interception +7000

.

Come to think of it, I did bet a prop before....in the Rams/Bengals Super Bowl I bet on Cooper Kupp to win the MVP at I think around  4 or 5 to 1, which got the money.....had the Bengals +3.5 too.

Appreciate your efforts indigo … I’m in Missouri.   Have chiefs +9… and under 54.5 … in about 400$ worth of teasers that have 2 remaining.. used college hoops on other legs….  I’m rooting chiefs as my home state… live in lake Winnebago.. which is s of lee summit on east side of k city….    I told my girlfriend when they drafted him… as I watched a few late night big 12 games which included Texas tech…. I told her chiefs will be going to every other Super Bowl for the next 10 years….. and mahomes is exceeding that…. I think barring major injury… chiefs will be better next year… defense which was ignored first 3-4 years… has been addressed last 2 years … by far best defense in mahomes career… but it’s different now playing defense for chiefs… 3 years ago you were on the field 6-7 minutes more per game… as their offense was very dynamic… so it’s a different perspective if you are spaggs now…. You have to occasionally hold them… and he is..  when they got helaire… I said they had one of the best backs in the league… he was a stud at Lsu… and 2 years later this little unknown back out of Rutgers … just beat him out.    .. love the chiefs backs now… like McKinnon on third down these days…. Omg this has gotten waay too long….  Good luck to all… and this has been a great thread indigo… good gambling wise and personally…  2 last points… if chiefs keep this team intact… barring injury… I think next year they will be at their best…. Last point… the play where Toney lined up offsides earlier in season…. My gut says Andy will run it on purpose or a similar type in this game.         Good luck to all… it is only one game… but I hope Patrick wins another… why not……. One last point… Burrow is only qb I have seen lately that thinks he will win against Patrick … and he will be back next year… not sure of state of their team..   but man they have some receivers…. Go chiefs.    Hope they win 25-24 on a 2 point conversion with 0.00 on the clock.  

 My gut says Andy will run it on purpose or a similar type in this game.         Good luck to all… it is only one game… but I hope Patrick wins another… why not……. One last point… Burrow is only qb I have seen lately that thinks he will win against Patrick … and he will be back next year… not sure of state of their team..   but man they have some receivers…. Go chiefs.    Hope they win 25-24 on a 2 point conversion with 0.00 on the clock.[/Quote]

LOL......thanks for the share....if you live in Misery you're a better person than me.....I went to grad school in Saint Louis (Ballwin) and lived there for about six years.....I didn't like it, especially the heat and humidity and the city of Saint Louis itself is was very poorly planned, and there was in the incessant complaining about the Cardinals baseball team even when they were winning the world series....the Royals would kill to have the success the Cards have had.

Mahomes  could have  problems next year....there is some esoteric stuff involved with people in their  28-29th year which dictates that they often have issues in their professional lives, they can get injured with structural issues, etc., so whether they win or lose on Sunday I predict they have a non-Mahomes kind of season, next season.

The AFC West now has the four best collection of head coaches in the NFL....I predict it will be a rough year the Chiefs next season and that division is gonna be a dogfight for the next five years, that is if Reid doesn't retire....if/when he does that team will fall off a cliff, as look what happened when Bieniemy and Nagy got out from under him.  Spags has been excellent as a defensive coordinator, there's no getting around that, but he is the likely successor to Reid and it didn't go well when he was a head coach either.

The spread prices will be outrageous in  the Chiefs' games  next season....and I have grave doubts about their against-the-spread performance next season....perhaps they'll win a Chiefs-like percentage of games straight up, but of course for most of us, it is against the spread that counts.....it will be interesting because Andy Reid's in-division record and record on the road is the best in NFL history against the spread, so I could be wrong.

It will cost me money to find that out, because I will look to fade them, especially in their home games where Reid's winning percentage against the spread is around 500. 

I looked it up....Andy Reid's career ATS records, overall on left, in divisional games on right

Home favorite         Home dog            Away favorite           Away dog

91-98   30-34        12-19   5-8           63-51  27-14         60-31 25-11

52-25 ATS in road divisional games....not too shabby!!

@Indigo999

 Chiefs 

Final Super Bowl plays:

1)  Chiefs moneyline at +100, 3 units

2)  Moody misses a field goal +270, .5 unit

3)  Mahomes scores a TD +375, .25 unit

Here's a college basketball angle.....play against team that is ranked in the top 20 that is a non-March road conference away favorite that has lost their past two games....18-52-1 ATS (-5.45), these teams are 13-38-1 ATS if they're away favorites...VERSUS Creighton, Wisconsin

C and AF and p:L and pp:L and month!=3 and rank<20

Here's a college basketball angle.....play against team that is ranked in the top 20 that is a non-March road conference away team that has lost their past two games....18-52-1 ATS (-5.45)...........VERSUS Creighton, Wisconsin

C and AF, AD and p:L and pp:L and month!=3 and rank<20

13-38-1 against the spread as away favorites

5-14 against the spread as away dogs

WARNING:  I've just run the same query on the college basketball angle directly above on a second database which got wildly different results of 42-33 ATS, NOT 18-52-1 ATS.....I WOULD RECOMMEND NOT TO PLAY AGAINST THOSE INDICATED TEAMS BASED SOLELY ON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED! 

Obvious now the line has stayed where it has.........because of 49ers liability from futures wagers as 49ers were the  darlings along with the Ravens of the regular season.

Those following the Ravens will feel like a jilted lover, who says "Never again will I be taken in by  the Ravens and Lamar Jackson".

Human nature being what it is, we'll believe in any ol' story and we'll take them back once the Ravens crush it in the regular season once again.  

Taking Lamar Jackson on the road in the regular season is one of the most secure feelings in the world.....since he became the quarterback of the Ravens the Ravens are 15-3 ATS as an away dog, and 18-13 as an away favorite.

The reason?....teams that outrush their opponents on the road cover 71% of the time, close to 75% of the time as away dogs.

No change on the plays, posting again so that the plays are the bottom of this thread...

1)  Chiefs pik, 3 units

2)  Moody misses field goal, +270, +.5 unit

3)  Mahomes scores TD, +375. +.25 unit

I've enjoyed all of of your posts. Best of luck, go Chefs!

Good Luck sir your insights and mastery of SDQL is awesome. Although I am on the 9ers ( I think the universe will

reward CMC with a historic game as I believe he has been a truly great unrewarded RB thusfar in his career)