Super Bowl Matchup Part II

The table is almost set, 2 of these 4 teams will be playing for the Super Bowl title here in a few short weeks.  Before getting into who will be playing in the SB and who will be winning, a quick note….

Interestingly, Philly is now the SB fav at +290 or so BUT the SB line is now

-2.5, up from -1 just before the Divisional games played out.  I do not know what to make of this, maybe someone has some insight to why they make Philly the futures odds fav but gives the NFC 2.5 points in the SB ??  

NFC winner:

Is Hurts “hurt” or is he “injured”.  Big difference here and we’ll be watching the injury report closely.  I have not seen any news on him needing / getting an MRI so that is a good first step.  Skins are hot for sure and Jayden looks unstoppable.  These teams split their division matchups, the first one Fangio limiting Daniels impact on the game and the Eagles running away with it.  Second game Hurts went out in 1Q to head injury, Jayden went off for 5 TDs for the Washington win. 

I’m rolling with the Iggles to make another SB appearance here for several reasons.  One, as long as Hurts is not injured, the Eagles will be able to move the ball and score on this defense.  We all know Philly’s oline is top 1-2 in the league rushing the ball and Saquon is running as hot as Jayden is right now.  Eagles D is head and shoulders better than Washington, coming in as the #1 overall dvoa team, ranked 2 in both passing and rush defense.  Skins 23 overall, 20 vs pass and 26 run.  Yes, they are running hot and have momentum on their side.  I saw Quinn had them playing man one of the highest % of the league down the stretch.  He switched it up for the Lions game and went primary zone, both Goff ints were when they had zone coverage. 

Two other big reasons to bet against Washington winning this game. 

Jayden Daniels.  Is Jayden the next Tom Brady?  Joe Burrow maybe?  Perhaps he is.  If he leads Washington to a victory Sunday then he will be joining those two as the 3 QB ever to win their Conference Championship game in his first try (SB era NFL). 

If that happens then he will also be making history as the only rookie QB in history to win the Title game to move on to the SB. 

Shaun King / Big Ben / Flacco / Sanchez / Purdy – that is your previous list.  All lost Conference Title games. 

Next.  4 straight road game after winning last 3, including the last game of the regular season.  Again, the Skins will be making history if they were to win this game.  No team has won the last game of regular season on the road, then won Wild Card / Division / Conference to make the SB.  It is like they “run out of gas” come Conference title game.  Titans were in this same spot a few years back on road at KC losing and failing to cover 7.5 points.  There have been other instances since then but not sure if any of them actually made the Title game.  Chargers finished this season with two straight roadie wins, 3 game waxed down in Houston.  Not the same but just pointing out as it doesn’t factor into the equation every year, more like every 3-4 years. 

That’s about it now for Philly / Washington.  AFC next then Super Bowl winner….   

Comms have 1 day rest advantage

Comms best OL out..Cosmi

Comms recently got Allen back 

Payne and Allen might clog up the middle on Saquon 

Hurts won't be 100%

Q, eagles CB2 won't be 100% if he plays

AJ playing on a bum knee

If Comms slow Barkley they can win this one

Looks likes phil vs kc…kc to win sb

Who ever win in the kc vs bills gam, will likely win the sb.  Imo

AFC winner: 

I feel like I could copy & paste any past write up for the Bills / Chiefs game.  As of now I have no bet on this game itself.  I do like the AFC SB line, which I put 5u on already -1 -115.  As previously mentioned, that line is now -2.5.  I will likely add more to this line.  Bills +7.5 / Philly +2.5 ( yes I know crossing the 3 & 0 is a no no but nfl playoffs are different).  It’s more likely I play both sides of Bills/Chiefs in teaser with Philly.  My Bills/Chiefs futures, especially with the Philly exacta futes, leave me with little reason to play a coinflip side on this game.  Sure I lean KC and when / if a play comes out of that it will be added to this thread but the summary of that will just read “Patrick Mahomes”. 

“Bills are due”, “Josh Allen and the Bills want it more than Mahomes and the Chiefs”, “Bills already beat them this year”. Etc. etc.  Same thing we have heard last few years.  Give Allen and the Bills credit yes.  Eventually I’m sure they will make a SB and possible win one.  Will that be this year??  Well if they beat KC then yes I’m wagering they win it BUT can they get over the 0-4 hump vs. this KC team in the playoffs ?? 

Historically, the obvious fact is no team has won 3 straight SBs and the teams that have won back 2 back SBs never even made it back to the big game for a 3 try.  94 Cowboys were one of 3 of these team to make it back to the Conference Title game, losing to the Niners who went on to win that year (Bills probably best comparison here).   The 14-2 1990 SF 49ers lost to the Giants in NFCCG, who also went on to win their SB.  ’76 Steerers lost to the Oakland Raiders in their 3 straight attempt, that Raiders team winning the SB. 

So if the Bills are going to win in KC this week then history is 3-0 on their side of moving on to win the Super Bowl. 

More:

I shared this in a previous thread but here it is again….

Historically, in the modern era of NFL (since 2000 realignments), SOS from dvoa has been a decently strong indicator of the winner of these matchups at a little over 60%.  When you eliminate teams that counter this with QBs with the last name Brady or Mahomes, this jumps up to 82%.  The last 4 SB winners have been ahead in dvoa SOS as well.  

NFC:  Lions, Eagles

AFC:  Chiefs, Bills, Ravens

Winners:

Lions v. AFC = Lions

Eagles v. AFC = AFC

**********

KC SOS is 12

Bills SOS is 24

Eagles SOS is 29

Washington is 31

IF Jayden Daniels creates history and beats Philly then -2.5 from either KC or Bills will be a nice gift.  If not, then you are probably looking at that line being closer to what it was last week, -1 or -1.5 with Philly as the short dog. 

KC +220 to win SB and Buffalo +250.  Play them however you wish, those futures odds or AFC SB point spread.  If history shows us anything, the odds are overwhelming one of those teams will be your winner. 

@dubz4dummyz

Skins could cover this line for sure, I'm just betting against them moving on to the big game.  

For those who love to play the "story line" angle, there is the "Commander in Chief" Super Bowl matchup there for them.  Plus, if Mahomes and KC are gonna be the first team to win 3 straight then the Skins provide an easier path to do so....I'd be licking my chops with Spags matching up his D vs. the rookie.  

I forgot to include this nugget....

16 out of the last 18 years we have had a Super Bowl Conference representative that played its' Divisional round game on a Saturday.  

KC and Washington.  

Skins up first 3pm Sunday.... 

This should also read "Modern NFL", which was the realignments since 2001.  Brady and Burrow.  If you go back entire SB era you include Montana as well.  

Jayden Daniels.  Is Jayden the next Tom Brady?  Joe Burrow maybe?  Perhaps he is.  If he leads Washington to a victory Sunday then he will be joining those two as the 3 QB ever to win their Conference Championship game in his first try (SB era NFL). 

Skins / Eagles 

Eagles defense is being underestimated while at the same time Jayden and their offense is being over valued after their performance vs the decimated Lions defense and 4 TOs given to them. Fangio had this unit playing as a top 2-3 defense all season long, top efficiency unit overall and #1 overall in ppg allowed.  The Rams offense last week never really got going until the field was covered in snow and those DBs were on skates.  This will not be the case come Sunday in Philly and I expect this Defense to resemble something more of what they showed all season and the week 14 matchup with Washington.  Skins offense is very good in RZ coming in at 6th in RZ scoring but Philly's defense is as well, 3rd overall in RZ scoring.  Philly's offense though is the opposite, ranking in the bottom half of the league at 19th.  I like looking at RZ offense / defense splits more so for the total as we all know FGs instead of TDs are good for those Unders but in this case, if those numbers hold true then we are looking at a higher likelyhood of a Washington cover.  In the week 14 game the Skins were 2/2 in RZ and 2/2 in goal to go situations.  Problem was they only had those 2 scoring opportunities and only put up 18 points.  Eagles on the other hand were only 1/3 in RZ scoring and failed to convert a goal to go situation, something that rarely comes up for them with their patented tush push (although we saw them avoid that play call in same situation last week after Hurts knee injury).  

Sirianni had this to say about Hurts yesterday...."We try to put Jalen in safe situations. We want him to put himself in safe situations," coach Nick Sirianni said Friday. "We understand that there are a lot of things that Jalen does in the running game that help us run the football. As we go through it, we do whatever we've got to do to win the game. But his safety is always at the forefront of our mind."

I lean to the Under here and Washington cover with Philly winning.  Small 2u play on UN/47.5 and a little hedge on my Eagles futures with 2u on Skins +6.  If Hurts was fully healthy I’d lay the points but that’s not the case.  If Eagles cover it will likely be late in game, Daniels’ running out of his Cinderella time and someone makes a big play down the stretch to seal the deal.  If Washington pulls out the dub then I tip my cap to Jayden cause it means he balled out and made history. 

Yes.  Adding AFC to win SB -2.5 for 3u.

If its Philly then this number will be bad.  If Washington then this number will be great.  Have 5u on AFC -1 -115 already.  Will add more if its Philly and you can get AFC -1 / -1.5 come Monday.  

Bills / Chiefs

Superbowl winner will come from this game.  I don’t blame anyone for taking either side here.  While I’m wagering Jayden and the Skins won’t be making history tomorrow, I guess I’m doing the opposite with the Chiefs (although they could make the SB and still lose, thus no history making there).  Last year I did not straight bet KC to win at Buffalo or Baltimore, for all / many reasons people are discounting Mahomes and the Chiefs this year.  The Chiefs as -1.5 favs are the shortest in their Mahomes era home history, one of these previous times being the AFC championship game when they lost to Burrow’s Bengals.  Plenty of -2’s out there as well so we’ll see where this one closes before tying that game to history here.  Bills stock is at its all-time peak right now after their win over the all powerful Ravens last week.  Turnovers were the difference there and IF there are any TOs here they will determine the winner of what should be an extreme tightly contested game. In the playoff matchups between Mahomes and Allen, Mahomes has never turned the ball over and Allen has only once.  Oddly enough, Mahomes hasn’t thrown an INT since that week 12 game at Buffalo where he threw 2 picks.  This game favors the KC defense as they are the better unit with the better DC.  They are fully healthy, with the return of starting CB Watson last week Spags will have his full arsenal of weapons to deploy.  KC missed double digit tackles in their previous matchup, which they only averaged

Offensively, I was wondering if Reid would continue playing Thuney at LT instead of his All-Pro position inside and have DJ Humphries at LT (who is healthy).  This would have opened up a better chance for success in the KC run game, something they need to find success in to win this game, but Reid did not and is sticking with Thuney at LT.  Yes, this helps Mahomes blind side and Thuney held up fine vs much better edge competition last week with the Texans edge rushers (and before that the elite units of Pittsburgh and Cleveland) but it is a negative to the KC run game.  The Bills do not create pressure like any of those teams and Mahomes won’t be under near as much pressure as last week vs. Texans.  The Bills have had success vs. Kelce by playing man and I’d expect them to do the same tomorrow.  It will be up to Mahomes in those one on one matchups with Hollywood and Worthy to get the ball to them if KC is going to win this game.  Mahomes completion percentage on downfield throws is pretty bad this year and for whatever reason has been missing throws to open guys downfield consistently this season.  In big games like this Reid is always going to have some new wrinkles to his offensive approach and this game will be no different.  KC’s RZ offense is not good (24)  but they are elite on 3 down conversions.  Of note, KC was actually 3/3 in RZ and 3/3 in goal to go vs. the Bills in their last loss.  Reid will need to be finding that same success tomorrow for a win as the Bills rank 2 in the league in RZ conversion just behind the Ravens and ahead of the Lions. 

On the Bills side, their best LB Milano missed the regular season matchup and he is fully healthy and is THE difference maker on that defense.  Taylor Rapp is out though and that is no small thing.  DB Benford is also Questionable so the Bills could be missing 2 starters from their defensive backfield (although Elam is his backup and the former 1 rd pick is a very serviceable CB).  Rapp, who picked off Lamar last week, will be replaced with a rookie in Cole Bishop. 

Offensively, the Bills will try to win this game the same way they did the last matchup (and vs. Ravens) by establishing the run and trying to out physical their opponent, both of which were philosophy shifts this year (they tried last year), and the Bills were successful this season in doing so.  Both the Bills and Chiefs defenses ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency vs. the run this year.  KC’s D is more bend and don’t break under Spags and lets you hang around moving the ball until you make a mistake or they hold you to a FG.  Allen is going to need to put his Superman cape on Sunday as I don’t believe Cooks is going to be a difference maker.  If I’m Brady I have no hesitation giving Allen 12-15 carries in this game, whether it be designed or on scrambles.  In the RZ I’m leaning on Allen 100%.  I’m sure Josh is up for it so I’d be surprised if that’s not what we see.  Allen has seen good success vs. Spags and these two teams know each other so well I’m not sure how many surprises either could run out here.  KC can realistically only use Chenal (a rotation guy) and Tranquill as SPYs on Allen and he will only do this situationally.  Referee matchup favors the Bills here so that is always something to watch.  Perhaps the league assigned Mr. Clete Blakeman to this game after all the hoopla last week with regards to the referees to quiet down that chatter.  Weather will be clear and cold but not freezing.  Kicking game shouldn’t be affected.  Only thing I’ll say about Special Teams is the Bills are 2 to last in league in Kickoff efficiency coverage, giving up 31 yards per return, 5 worst in the league.  Chiefs returner Remigio is 5 in league with 29 yard per.  Should be a great AFC championship game come tomorrow night at Arrowhead and I’m wagering it be a one score game down to the wire.  A turnover or critical play at an opportune time will determine the winner here.  Lean Chiefs 26-24 here, which would put it over the current total.  Conversely, a 23-20 or 24-23 wouldn’t surprise me at all for an Under.  If the Bills score more than 24 points here then they likely win.  A shootout would surprise the hell out of me.  Degen plays below for entertainment hedges only….

Bills +8 / Eagles PK -120 2u
Chiefs +4.5 / Eagles PK -120 2u
Bills +12 / Chiefs +8 / Eagles +4 -120 2u
Bills +15 / Chiefs +11 / Skins +19 / Eagles +7 -130 2u

Bonus 1u ea. 

Mahomes NO int -125

Hurts NO int -170

Allen NO int -120

Lastly….here is a great montage of James Harden highlights playing QB for the Bills….best of luck to all 

https://x.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1881422562774700437

Just talked myself into this one from AM's thread....

Chiefs 1H -.5 EV  5u 

Going to be good 

Nice write-ups 

BOL today 

BOL

Eagles it is..... 

Mahomes -1 -105  5u 

Hurts looked just fine moving around in the pocket and running the ball.... weather was great, Philly's defense showed out while the Skins "ran out of gas" here in their 4th straight road game.  That angle continues to be undefeated, as are rookie QBs in the Conference title games now 0-6.  

Chiefs / Bills game was as expected, a great battle down to the end.  Of course, just like in past years, the difference is "playoff Mahomes" and KC's coaching edge.  First time KC scored 30 points all season.  Chiefs were 4/4 on their first 4 RZ attempts, finishing 4/6 and 2/3 in goal to goes.  Buffalo continued their elite RZ scoring ways going 3/3 but not enough opportunities in this game, Spags and the Championship defense made the difference when it mattered. 

First time Mahomes has ran for more than 1 TD in the playoffs.  First time KC converted a 2 pt try all season. 

Playoff games above 0.5 EPA/Play:

MAHOMES 7

Brady 3

Allen 3

Peyton 3

Warner 3

Wilson 3

Big Ben 2

Flacco 2

Brees 1

Rodgers 1

Rivers 1

"Playoff Mahomes" is nothing new to us, but people have short memories.....

"flip the switch"

Patrick Mahomes set season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5) in the AFC Championship game win over the Bills.

His top three games by dropback EPA this season have all come over his last four games.

(courtesy nextgen stats) 

Last nights game was a 99th percentile game for Patrick Mahomes in terms of dropback success rate. There were only four games this entire season where a QB produced a successful play at a higher rate. It's the highest dropback success rate of Mahomes' entire career.  

Another fun fact: 

Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap on a QB sneak in 2019. In the 5 years since, the Chiefs have called *THREE* designed QB runs.

•4th & 2 while trailing in OT of the Super Bowl

•4th & 1 last night

•The final touchdown run

More fun with numbers....

Patrick Mahomes has trailed in 4th quarter in 9 playoff games.

He has come back to win 6 and forced OT in 2 others before losing.

He has a 132.2 rating with 5 TD passes and 1 TD run when down 1-8 points in 4th quarter or OT of playoff game, leading scores on 13 of 14 drives

"In last year's KC superbowl run they had more than a 4 point lead at half time in each of their 3 games.  

Since KC's last playoff loss in 2021 to the Bengals, the Chiefs have led at halftime by more than 4 points in every playoff game, going on 6 straight now currently.

This is "minus the Super Bowls" as they were down at half in both of the last 2 SBs and down or tied in all 4 SBs with Mahomes and Reid."

This is now 7 straight playoff games....