Super Bowl losers

I've always liked this one. Put in another parameter. Your home team had to have won at least six games last year and I think you'll like what you see

Thanks for all of the data sharing that you do

12)  Week 1 teams that made the playoffs last season, that missed the playoffs the two previous seasons...

  a)  as home favorites....15-26-2 ATS......AGAINST Seahawks, Jaguars

  b)  as away dogs..........10-15-1 ATS......AGAINST Patriots

  c)  as home dogs...........5-7  ATS.....AGAINST Panthers

  d)  as away favorites......10-6 ATS.....ON Bears

13)  week 1 favorites that will be underdogs their next two games.....33-73-6 ATS.....VERSUS Titans, Steelers, Raiders

14)  week 1 underdogs that will favorites their next two games....71-40-3 ATS..........ON Panthers, Texans, Bucs, 49ers

15)  A week 1 away dog who missed the playoffs last season whose cumulative  against the spread margin last season was more than 50 points worse than their week 1 opponent's. 

As an example, the Cardinals averaged -4 points/game versus the spread last season  or -68 points (17 games played multiplied by -4 points/game).  Their opponent, the Chargers were +5 for the season.....-68 minus 4 = -73

60-39 ATS.....Cardinals, Browns......if their week 1 opponent made the playoffs the season prior, this moves to 33-14 ATS (+4.0), 17-30 straight up (-2.7).

Query text....tpS(ats margin)-opS(ats margin)<-50 and week=1 and AD  and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0

great query indigo...thank you for sharing

16)  ------

17)  An away dog in game 1 that...

  a)  won their last three regular season away games the previous year.....6-16 ATS,.....VERSUS Broncos, Patriots

  b)  lost their last three regular season away games the previous year.....65-38 ATS....ON Jets, Bucs, Cardinals

query text....tpS(W@A, N=3)=0 and AD and week=1

18)  A week 1 home team that won their last five regular season home games....

  a)  as home favorites.......20-31 ATS.....VERSUS Seahawks

  b)  as home dogs..............7-2 ATS.....ON Texans

@Indigo999

 If this was already posted I apologize, but NFL QBs who were the first overall draft pick and making their first start are 2-15-1 SU this century. I'm not 100% sure of the accuracy of this stat, but I know I'm not backing the Raiders in Week One IF Mendoza makes his first start.

19)  Fade teams 2026, especially as favorites....VERSUS Broncos, Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers, Eagles, Lions, 

20)  Play ON teams 2026, especially as dogs.....NYG, Cowboys, Saints, Chiefs

Spot on except DET their SOS is beneficial

The Lions will have to convince me that their recent success wasn't just a product of  of having Johnson as their offensive coordinator until last season.

21)  Play ON an away dog with less than or equal wins on the season to their present opponent, whose next game line is 3 or more points stronger than their opponent's next game line.....796-487-38 ATS (+3.5), 62%, 92-57-6 ATS in week 1 (12-18 ATS all of  last season).....ON Falcons, Bucs (Packers if they become week 1 underdogs).

Example.....The Falcons are 3 point away underdogs week 1 versus the Steelers....the Falcons in week 2 are 1.5 point favorites and the Steelers are 4.5 point underdogs.

Query text....AD and n:line-on:line<=-3 and month>8 and t:wins-o:wins<1 and nn:playoffs=0 

VERY IMPRESSIVE QUERY INDIGO!

thanks so much for the share especially the text.

@jowchoo

 If you or anyone else  decides to come onto my thread with angles I would appreciate it if you would explain the angle, as well as share the query text.

Apparently Super Bowl Losers do well as Away Favorites off a strong OFF performance:

SBL and AF and p:dps > 10.2 (dps = Delta Points scored, roughly equivalent to how the team did vs. the team total --- the team scored at least 10.5 points above expectation in the previous game)

SU:  14-2 (10.6,87.5%)

ATS:  12-3-1 (5.6,80.0%) avg line is -5.34

It does not work for the other 3 categories (Away Dogs, Home Favorites, Home Dogs).

22)  Super Bowl winners from last season versus a team that missed the playoffs last season

as:

  a)  home favorites  10-15-2 ATS

  b)  away favorites 7-13-2 ATS ......VERSUS Seahawks @AZ week 2, @Commies week 3.

23)  Last season teams with a seasons wins total of >9 wins went 6-9 to the over, 2-4 OVER with a total greater than 10.

24)  Last season teams with a season wins total of <8 wins went 7-6 to the over.

25)  Teams since 2010 that went winless in the division the previous season went 251-185-19 ATS (+1.1), 57.6% the next season as away dogs of 7 points or less.....ON Jets, Cardinals, Titans

If they are away dogs of <=7 versus a divisional opponent this moves to 93-64 ATS, 59.2% 

query text.....tpS(DIV@W, N=6)=0 and season>2010 and DIV and playoffs=0 and AD and line<=7

26)  Play against a week 1 home favorite if;

  a)  they will be a next game underdog versus an opponent that will be a next game favorite

  b)  either their next, next game they will be an underdog or their present opponent's next next game they will be a favorite.....VERSUS Bengals, Steelers

  20-47-2 ATS (-5.8), 33-36 straight up (-1.9)

  c)  if the game is a non-divisional matchup......14-28-2 ATS

  d)  if their present non-divisional opponent won less than 9 games last season....6-21-2 ATS (-10.8), 10-18 straight up (-6.6).....ON Falcons, Bucs

  e)  if their present opponent lost their last three away games last season....2-11 ATS (-13.92), 5-8 straight up (-9.92).....ON Bucs

query text....week = 1 and HF and n:D and on:F and (nn:D or onn:F) and not DIV and opS(W) < 9 and opS(W@A, N=3)

27)  Since 2021, home field advantage in non-playoff games has averaged 2.1 points/game. 

If January games are excluded where in some weird, probably non-sustainable incidences the home field advantage  has been +5.98 points/game, the home field in non-January games has been 1.7 points/game.

query text....H and season>2020 and playoffs=0 and month!=1

Sunday games the home field advantage with the the above  parameters has been 1.87 points/game, with the home team winning 52.7% of the games, covering 49% of the time.

28)  Teams that had at least 5 more close wins than had close losses (of 8 or less points) the previous season since 2020....Panthers were 7-2, Broncos were 11-2.

as:

  a)  Home favorites..... 41-56 ATS

  b)  Away favorites......30-31 ATS

  c)  Home dogs...........20-11 ATS.....Panthers week 1

  d)  Away dogs............38-30 ATS.....Broncos week 1

Query text.....-8<=margin<=8 and playoffs=0 and team and season=2025

From 17b)......week 1 away dogs that lost their last three away games from the previous season.....if that team won more than three games that previous season the results have been 55-27 ATS, 38-16-2 ATS if they are away non-divisional dogs.....ON Bucs

Those that won three or less games the previous season in this scenario have only been 15-17 ATS.....Cardinals, Jets

Query text.....week = 1 and tpS(W@A, N=3) = 0 and AD and tpS(W) > 3 and not DIV

Indigo, do you have any stats on NFL teams the game before opening up new stadiums. The Bills play at home week 2 & opening their new stadium on TNF. 

No I don't have the wherewithal to test that.

Deleting the Cowboys win division play.

Futures plays....

  1)  Bills win division -147

  2)  Giants win division +550

  3)  Chargers win division +185

  4)  Saints win division +260

Cowboys win division DELETED

Looking to fade quarterbacks in their age 29 seasons, they often get hurt or underperform...............Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Kylar Murray, Lamar Jackson

Here is an angle if you don't mind me adding Indigo

The super bowl loser is 4-10 ATS week 1 if they had a losing record of .500 or less the season before playing in the super bowl, & its since 1978 inception of the 16 game schedule. (Patriots were 4-13 in 2024)

SBL and week = 1 and tpS(margin < -8.5, N = 1) = 1

ATS:  1-8 (-4.2,11.1%)

Super Bowl Losers by at least 9 points are just 1-8-0 ATS in week 1 of the following year.  NE might not be able to get revenge.