I had a brief write up with my thoughts, but I lost it. But in short, I will be on the Patriots in some capacity though I’m still deciding how and how much I will be investing on New England. For as good as the Giants have looked in the playoffs, this is the same team we were talking about months ago who was on the verge of missing the playoffs. The Giants lost twice to Washington, lost to Seattle and lost to a Vick-less Eagles team. There is no denying that Eli has been in quite the zone in the playoffs and even the clinching game vs. Dallas (total 11 TD vs. 1 INT), but he also had a QB rating under 100 in more than half of his games this year. I could toss out pros and cons for siding with each team and likely won’t change anyone’s mind. I’ll add some thoughts in the coming days as I get all my plays finalized.
Leans: New England Patriots 1st quarter, New England Patriots 1st half, New England Patriots –2.5
In 2005-2006 the Steelers needed to win their last few straight games to make the playoffs and won the SB.
Last season Packers needed to win it's last game to just make the playoffs and won the SB.
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Quote Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:
2011-2012 Playoffs: 31-17-0 +331.12 units
I had a brief write up with my thoughts, but I lost it. But in short, I will be on the Patriots in some capacity though I’m still deciding how and how much I will be investing on New England. For as good as the Giants have looked in the playoffs, this is the same team we were talking about months ago who was on the verge of missing the playoffs. The Giants lost twice to Washington, lost to Seattle and lost to a Vick-less Eagles team. There is no denying that Eli has been in quite the zone in the playoffs and even the clinching game vs. Dallas (total 11 TD vs. 1 INT), but he also had a QB rating under 100 in more than half of his games this year. I could toss out pros and cons for siding with each team and likely won’t change anyone’s mind. I’ll add some thoughts in the coming days as I get all my plays finalized.
Leans: New England Patriots 1st quarter, New England Patriots 1st half, New England Patriots –2.5
In 2005-2006 the Steelers needed to win their last few straight games to make the playoffs and won the SB.
Last season Packers needed to win it's last game to just make the playoffs and won the SB.
I'm not getting 2.5 at my book I'm getting 3 but it's for +105 with gmen at -115...everyone asks why is it still 3...well, look at the prices they're getting enough money on both sides....
The Giants beat a fading Dallas team to get in, Atlanta is simply awful away, a fading green Bay team, and SF gave that game to them (10 point off those fumbles)....
the Patriots still are the bet -3 AT that price and I like the UNDER..the injury to Gronkowski has to have a point value of between 3-7 points, and considering the game earlier in the year the UNDER really is the proper bet; I'm a Pats fan so screw it give me -3 at +105...that Pollard guy tore Brady's ACL and basically took Gronk out of the super bowl...what a damn jinx
GL....
Interesting you'd mention how SF gave the game to the Gmen but never mention how severely the Pats were out-played and given the game by the Ravens.
If you haven't seen the history yet............the Pats were so severely out-played by Ravens that in the history of the NFL playoffs all teams out-played by their opponents the way Pats were have combined to go 1-110.
And Who got lucky..........................................................
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Quote Originally Posted by onebrokebloke:
I'm not getting 2.5 at my book I'm getting 3 but it's for +105 with gmen at -115...everyone asks why is it still 3...well, look at the prices they're getting enough money on both sides....
The Giants beat a fading Dallas team to get in, Atlanta is simply awful away, a fading green Bay team, and SF gave that game to them (10 point off those fumbles)....
the Patriots still are the bet -3 AT that price and I like the UNDER..the injury to Gronkowski has to have a point value of between 3-7 points, and considering the game earlier in the year the UNDER really is the proper bet; I'm a Pats fan so screw it give me -3 at +105...that Pollard guy tore Brady's ACL and basically took Gronk out of the super bowl...what a damn jinx
GL....
Interesting you'd mention how SF gave the game to the Gmen but never mention how severely the Pats were out-played and given the game by the Ravens.
If you haven't seen the history yet............the Pats were so severely out-played by Ravens that in the history of the NFL playoffs all teams out-played by their opponents the way Pats were have combined to go 1-110.
And Who got lucky..........................................................
Interesting you'd mention how SF gave the game to the Gmen but never mention how severely the Pats were out-played and given the game by the Ravens.
If you haven't seen the history yet............the Pats were so severely out-played by Ravens that in the history of the NFL playoffs all teams out-played by their opponents the way Pats were have combined to go 1-110.
And Who got lucky..........................................................
I believe they both got lucky in sorts...the Patriots didnt get OUTPLAYED in that game...it was very evenly matched and anyone could have won it...the Giants got OUTPLAYED in the second half by a large margin in San Fran if you wanna say that
it's all neither here nor there at this point...1 game left and an argument can be made either way...just as Baltimore and San Fran could be playing in this game very easily...
and trends and historical statistics are getting shattered every year due to the rules changes and changes in the game all together..for example, now it's 2-110
blah..GL on your bets...
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Interesting you'd mention how SF gave the game to the Gmen but never mention how severely the Pats were out-played and given the game by the Ravens.
If you haven't seen the history yet............the Pats were so severely out-played by Ravens that in the history of the NFL playoffs all teams out-played by their opponents the way Pats were have combined to go 1-110.
And Who got lucky..........................................................
I believe they both got lucky in sorts...the Patriots didnt get OUTPLAYED in that game...it was very evenly matched and anyone could have won it...the Giants got OUTPLAYED in the second half by a large margin in San Fran if you wanna say that
it's all neither here nor there at this point...1 game left and an argument can be made either way...just as Baltimore and San Fran could be playing in this game very easily...
and trends and historical statistics are getting shattered every year due to the rules changes and changes in the game all together..for example, now it's 2-110
I don't really agree with the idea that "these are the same Giants" that lost to the skins and c-hawks and all that....b/c they aren't the same Giants
i hate that everyone likes the giants in this game and I hate Brady pissed off and wanting revenge and Bellicheck with 2 weeks to prepare. I also hate the giants secondary....we shall see
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I don't really agree with the idea that "these are the same Giants" that lost to the skins and c-hawks and all that....b/c they aren't the same Giants
i hate that everyone likes the giants in this game and I hate Brady pissed off and wanting revenge and Bellicheck with 2 weeks to prepare. I also hate the giants secondary....we shall see
I believe they both got lucky in sorts...the Patriots didnt get OUTPLAYED in that game...it was very evenly matched and anyone could have won it...the Giants got OUTPLAYED in the second half by a large margin in San Fran if you wanna say that
it's all neither here nor there at this point...1 game left and an argument can be made either way...just as Baltimore and San Fran could be playing in this game very easily...
and trends and historical statistics are getting shattered every year due to the rules changes and changes in the game all together..for example, now it's 2-110
blah..GL on your bets...
Ha, ha, ha, ha,ha,ha, the Pats didn't get out-played ?
Ravens won the QB passer rating by 37 pts, rarely ever will a team lose any game when winning the QBPR by this amount unlesstheir opponent wins other parts of the game which the Pats not only lost but were dominated in.
TO battle won by Ravens... +2
Ave gain per pass won big by Ravens..............
Total yds won big by Ravens.............
What area did the Pats play the Ravens even in ?
Every effiency indicator that correlates with winning in the Nfl was won by the Ravens and some won big by the Ravens.
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Quote Originally Posted by onebrokebloke:
I believe they both got lucky in sorts...the Patriots didnt get OUTPLAYED in that game...it was very evenly matched and anyone could have won it...the Giants got OUTPLAYED in the second half by a large margin in San Fran if you wanna say that
it's all neither here nor there at this point...1 game left and an argument can be made either way...just as Baltimore and San Fran could be playing in this game very easily...
and trends and historical statistics are getting shattered every year due to the rules changes and changes in the game all together..for example, now it's 2-110
blah..GL on your bets...
Ha, ha, ha, ha,ha,ha, the Pats didn't get out-played ?
Ravens won the QB passer rating by 37 pts, rarely ever will a team lose any game when winning the QBPR by this amount unlesstheir opponent wins other parts of the game which the Pats not only lost but were dominated in.
TO battle won by Ravens... +2
Ave gain per pass won big by Ravens..............
Total yds won big by Ravens.............
What area did the Pats play the Ravens even in ?
Every effiency indicator that correlates with winning in the Nfl was won by the Ravens and some won big by the Ravens.
Ha, ha, ha, ha,ha,ha, the Pats didn't get out-played ?
Ravens won the QB passer rating by 37 pts, rarely ever will a team lose any game when winning the QBPR by this amount unlesstheir opponent wins other parts of the game which the Pats not only lost but were dominated in.
TO battle won by Ravens... +2
Ave gain per pass won big by Ravens..............
Total yds won big by Ravens.............
What area did the Pats play the Ravens even in ?
Every effiency indicator that correlates with winning in the Nfl was won by the Ravens and some won big by the Ravens.
If you're going to focus on statistics than I cant continue the argument man. I could go look at the game stats and find areas that they won the game in. The main points are the things not necessarily in the stat column.
The Patriots came out of the gate better and went ran the ball when it was assumed by all that they couldnt do it...they basically made Ray Rice non-existent which is something they had to do...Flacco did make throws Brady left on the field but threw a key interception to Spikes late in the game, coupled with a key Patriot 4th down stop late in the game....the Patriots redzone defense made crucial stops throughout the game and namely in the 4th quarter...
I could go on and on but my point is the plays are made on the field and the points need to get put up on the board. Its why they were horrible in terms of yardage allowed this year but good in points allowed. Just because you drive up and down the field doesnt mean it's going to lead to 7 points.
You can laugh all you want man but like I said it's pointless now. It's scoreboard baby and the teams that end out on top go to the superbowl; the Pats and Giants ended up on top 2 weeks ago whether people argue against both...
The one key stat the Patriots MUST improve on to win is their 3rd down efficiency rating-I believe the Ravens were 7-19 or something on 3rd down...if the Giants do that they win the game. But forcing 19 3rd down situations is impressive in and of itself.....
You aint the first Patriot hater I've come across and wont be the last...stats are history now man theres only 1 game left...
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Ha, ha, ha, ha,ha,ha, the Pats didn't get out-played ?
Ravens won the QB passer rating by 37 pts, rarely ever will a team lose any game when winning the QBPR by this amount unlesstheir opponent wins other parts of the game which the Pats not only lost but were dominated in.
TO battle won by Ravens... +2
Ave gain per pass won big by Ravens..............
Total yds won big by Ravens.............
What area did the Pats play the Ravens even in ?
Every effiency indicator that correlates with winning in the Nfl was won by the Ravens and some won big by the Ravens.
If you're going to focus on statistics than I cant continue the argument man. I could go look at the game stats and find areas that they won the game in. The main points are the things not necessarily in the stat column.
The Patriots came out of the gate better and went ran the ball when it was assumed by all that they couldnt do it...they basically made Ray Rice non-existent which is something they had to do...Flacco did make throws Brady left on the field but threw a key interception to Spikes late in the game, coupled with a key Patriot 4th down stop late in the game....the Patriots redzone defense made crucial stops throughout the game and namely in the 4th quarter...
I could go on and on but my point is the plays are made on the field and the points need to get put up on the board. Its why they were horrible in terms of yardage allowed this year but good in points allowed. Just because you drive up and down the field doesnt mean it's going to lead to 7 points.
You can laugh all you want man but like I said it's pointless now. It's scoreboard baby and the teams that end out on top go to the superbowl; the Pats and Giants ended up on top 2 weeks ago whether people argue against both...
The one key stat the Patriots MUST improve on to win is their 3rd down efficiency rating-I believe the Ravens were 7-19 or something on 3rd down...if the Giants do that they win the game. But forcing 19 3rd down situations is impressive in and of itself.....
You aint the first Patriot hater I've come across and wont be the last...stats are history now man theres only 1 game left...
If you're going to focus on statistics than I cant continue the argument man. I could go look at the game stats and find areas that they won the game in. The main points are the things not necessarily in the stat column.
The Patriots came out of the gate better and went ran the ball when it was assumed by all that they couldnt do it...they basically made Ray Rice non-existent which is something they had to do...Flacco did make throws Brady left on the field but threw a key interception to Spikes late in the game, coupled with a key Patriot 4th down stop late in the game....the Patriots redzone defense made crucial stops throughout the game and namely in the 4th quarter...
I could go on and on but my point is the plays are made on the field and the points need to get put up on the board. Its why they were horrible in terms of yardage allowed this year but good in points allowed. Just because you drive up and down the field doesnt mean it's going to lead to 7 points.
You can laugh all you want man but like I said it's pointless now. It's scoreboard baby and the teams that end out on top go to the superbowl; the Pats and Giants ended up on top 2 weeks ago whether people argue against both...
The one key stat the Patriots MUST improve on to win is their 3rd down efficiency rating-I believe the Ravens were 7-19 or something on 3rd down...if the Giants do that they win the game. But forcing 19 3rd down situations is impressive in and of itself.....
You aint the first Patriot hater I've come across and wont be the last...stats are history now man theres only 1 game left...
GL
3rd down % has little correlation to winning, and I'm not a Pats hater, just pointing out the facts you failed to.
You sound like a Pats fan who's looking at this game with rose colored glasses, I'm looking at just the facts, and I know the history of those stats and I know which stats have a high correlation to winning games and it all points to the Pats being severely out-played by the Ravens.
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Quote Originally Posted by onebrokebloke:
If you're going to focus on statistics than I cant continue the argument man. I could go look at the game stats and find areas that they won the game in. The main points are the things not necessarily in the stat column.
The Patriots came out of the gate better and went ran the ball when it was assumed by all that they couldnt do it...they basically made Ray Rice non-existent which is something they had to do...Flacco did make throws Brady left on the field but threw a key interception to Spikes late in the game, coupled with a key Patriot 4th down stop late in the game....the Patriots redzone defense made crucial stops throughout the game and namely in the 4th quarter...
I could go on and on but my point is the plays are made on the field and the points need to get put up on the board. Its why they were horrible in terms of yardage allowed this year but good in points allowed. Just because you drive up and down the field doesnt mean it's going to lead to 7 points.
You can laugh all you want man but like I said it's pointless now. It's scoreboard baby and the teams that end out on top go to the superbowl; the Pats and Giants ended up on top 2 weeks ago whether people argue against both...
The one key stat the Patriots MUST improve on to win is their 3rd down efficiency rating-I believe the Ravens were 7-19 or something on 3rd down...if the Giants do that they win the game. But forcing 19 3rd down situations is impressive in and of itself.....
You aint the first Patriot hater I've come across and wont be the last...stats are history now man theres only 1 game left...
GL
3rd down % has little correlation to winning, and I'm not a Pats hater, just pointing out the facts you failed to.
You sound like a Pats fan who's looking at this game with rose colored glasses, I'm looking at just the facts, and I know the history of those stats and I know which stats have a high correlation to winning games and it all points to the Pats being severely out-played by the Ravens.
If you're going to focus on statistics than I cant continue the argument man. I could go look at the game stats and find areas that they won the game in. The main points are the things not necessarily in the stat column.
The Patriots came out of the gate better and went ran the ball when it was assumed by all that they couldnt do it...they basically made Ray Rice non-existent which is something they had to do...Flacco did make throws Brady left on the field but threw a key interception to Spikes late in the game, coupled with a key Patriot 4th down stop late in the game....the Patriots redzone defense made crucial stops throughout the game and namely in the 4th quarter...
I could go on and on but my point is the plays are made on the field and the points need to get put up on the board. Its why they were horrible in terms of yardage allowed this year but good in points allowed. Just because you drive up and down the field doesnt mean it's going to lead to 7 points.
You can laugh all you want man but like I said it's pointless now. It's scoreboard baby and the teams that end out on top go to the superbowl; the Pats and Giants ended up on top 2 weeks ago whether people argue against both...
The one key stat the Patriots MUST improve on to win is their 3rd down efficiency rating-I believe the Ravens were 7-19 or something on 3rd down...if the Giants do that they win the game. But forcing 19 3rd down situations is impressive in and of itself.....
You aint the first Patriot hater I've come across and wont be the last...stats are history now man theres only 1 game left...
Rushing ave per play..............Ravens 3.7..................Pats 3.1
Ravens won the rushing battle, not sure where you come-up with this Pats came out running the ball well ?
A 3.1 ave per rush is pathetic and well below the league ave.
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Quote Originally Posted by onebrokebloke:
If you're going to focus on statistics than I cant continue the argument man. I could go look at the game stats and find areas that they won the game in. The main points are the things not necessarily in the stat column.
The Patriots came out of the gate better and went ran the ball when it was assumed by all that they couldnt do it...they basically made Ray Rice non-existent which is something they had to do...Flacco did make throws Brady left on the field but threw a key interception to Spikes late in the game, coupled with a key Patriot 4th down stop late in the game....the Patriots redzone defense made crucial stops throughout the game and namely in the 4th quarter...
I could go on and on but my point is the plays are made on the field and the points need to get put up on the board. Its why they were horrible in terms of yardage allowed this year but good in points allowed. Just because you drive up and down the field doesnt mean it's going to lead to 7 points.
You can laugh all you want man but like I said it's pointless now. It's scoreboard baby and the teams that end out on top go to the superbowl; the Pats and Giants ended up on top 2 weeks ago whether people argue against both...
The one key stat the Patriots MUST improve on to win is their 3rd down efficiency rating-I believe the Ravens were 7-19 or something on 3rd down...if the Giants do that they win the game. But forcing 19 3rd down situations is impressive in and of itself.....
You aint the first Patriot hater I've come across and wont be the last...stats are history now man theres only 1 game left...
Claw I meant they ran the ball effectively. Now you've made me dig out the box score and point to key numbers:
Total yards- Balt 398 NE 330
Yards/off play- Balt 5.7 NE 4.9
Net Yds Passing-Balt 282 NE 234
Yds/Pass play-Balt 7.2 NE 6.3
I will give you all these numbers and agree with you (on top of the rushing/attempt you stated) that Baltimore won each statistic; but they didnt DOMINATE them
Now allow me to point out some key statistics to you that reveal the game-within-the-game:
First downs-Balt 19 NE 25
4th down- Balt 0-1 NE 1-1 and Baltimore's failed 4th down attempt in the 4th quarter was HUGE
Sacks-Balt 1 NE 3 who woulda thought that
Penalties-Balt 6 NE 1
red zone % Balt 1-4 Ne 2-5 this is the biggest statistic in the damn game besides the obvious,
FG Balt 2-3 and NE 3-3
My point is not that Baltimore did'nt win the game statistically, but they lost the game because they could'nt make the plays when they had to. When Woodhead fumbled that ball they had a chance to go up by 8 and only went up by 4. NE drove the field and scored to go up by 3. Lee Evans could'nt secure the ball in the endzone. The coaching staff couldnt call a timeout to make sure Cundiff nails the 31 yarder.
Take your stats and argue until you're blue in the face, but they couldnt get it done in key moments. On the 4th down late in the game Belichick was smart enough to double the slot receivers and take away Flacco's 1st and 2nd reads, leading to a turnover on downs and making the last drive the one they HAD to get it on - they didnt.
Yes, I am a Pats homer obviously....
GL Claw
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Claw I meant they ran the ball effectively. Now you've made me dig out the box score and point to key numbers:
Total yards- Balt 398 NE 330
Yards/off play- Balt 5.7 NE 4.9
Net Yds Passing-Balt 282 NE 234
Yds/Pass play-Balt 7.2 NE 6.3
I will give you all these numbers and agree with you (on top of the rushing/attempt you stated) that Baltimore won each statistic; but they didnt DOMINATE them
Now allow me to point out some key statistics to you that reveal the game-within-the-game:
First downs-Balt 19 NE 25
4th down- Balt 0-1 NE 1-1 and Baltimore's failed 4th down attempt in the 4th quarter was HUGE
Sacks-Balt 1 NE 3 who woulda thought that
Penalties-Balt 6 NE 1
red zone % Balt 1-4 Ne 2-5 this is the biggest statistic in the damn game besides the obvious,
FG Balt 2-3 and NE 3-3
My point is not that Baltimore did'nt win the game statistically, but they lost the game because they could'nt make the plays when they had to. When Woodhead fumbled that ball they had a chance to go up by 8 and only went up by 4. NE drove the field and scored to go up by 3. Lee Evans could'nt secure the ball in the endzone. The coaching staff couldnt call a timeout to make sure Cundiff nails the 31 yarder.
Take your stats and argue until you're blue in the face, but they couldnt get it done in key moments. On the 4th down late in the game Belichick was smart enough to double the slot receivers and take away Flacco's 1st and 2nd reads, leading to a turnover on downs and making the last drive the one they HAD to get it on - they didnt.
Since 2010, the Pats are 8-1 SU in games following ones where Brady had a QB rating less than 100. He finished with such a rating in last week's AFC Championship game vs the Ravens. In these games, Brady completed 66% of his passes, averaged 261 yards through the air, threw 21 touchdowns against 1 interception and the Pats averaged 33+ points per game.
So, Brady comes in off a poor game vs the Ravens, looking to avenge a loss earlier in the year vs. the Giants and looking for revenge on a team who ruined the Pats perfect season.
Hey SettleDownSpaz, good luck. I appreciate the insight as this game could either way IMO.
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Quote Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:
Since 2010, the Pats are 8-1 SU in games following ones where Brady had a QB rating less than 100. He finished with such a rating in last week's AFC Championship game vs the Ravens. In these games, Brady completed 66% of his passes, averaged 261 yards through the air, threw 21 touchdowns against 1 interception and the Pats averaged 33+ points per game.
So, Brady comes in off a poor game vs the Ravens, looking to avenge a loss earlier in the year vs. the Giants and looking for revenge on a team who ruined the Pats perfect season.
Hey SettleDownSpaz, good luck. I appreciate the insight as this game could either way IMO.
While I agree with you about the Giants had a bad middle of the season and played poorly against bad teams. However if you look at the season as a whole, it was very rare that the entire team was healthy and were on the field together.
tuck, Osi, Nicks, Manningham, Boley, all time missed time. Also since they demoted Greg jones from starter MLB and added Chase Blackburn the defense has played better. It's not that Blackburn is a great player, it's the he makes the defensive calls and is much better at it than a rookie
this being said you know I am a huge Giants fan
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Spaz... something to think about.
While I agree with you about the Giants had a bad middle of the season and played poorly against bad teams. However if you look at the season as a whole, it was very rare that the entire team was healthy and were on the field together.
tuck, Osi, Nicks, Manningham, Boley, all time missed time. Also since they demoted Greg jones from starter MLB and added Chase Blackburn the defense has played better. It's not that Blackburn is a great player, it's the he makes the defensive calls and is much better at it than a rookie
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