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Sunday Afternoon - NFL

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:


GL
I am having trouble laying two TD's in the NFL of parity

i see your point but

the nfc is clearly superior to the afc and you get one of the best nfc teams at home against one of the worst afc teams, who is btw missing their only playmaker

can't get much more lopsided than that
 
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Posted: #27
Locked and loaded 
 
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Posted: #28
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123:

@si1ly

Why so many teasers? You finding lines tight or just scared? Don't take it as an insult but playing 3 teasers has a high chance of a disastrous outcome today.

I think the market it ripe for teasers.  A lot of tight numbers but a lot of great teaser opportunities.  I think they offer the best chance of value on the board.  I teased a 2.5 point underdog up to over 7 in 3 different low scoring games and I teased a touchdown favorite down in 3 other games.  What's not to like?  I'm not afraid of backing these teams straight up.  I think I'm getting better line value by moving these spreads across so many key numbers at once.
 
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Posted: #30
GL SILLY
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by cpsn:


i see your point but

the nfc is clearly superior to the afc and you get one of the best nfc teams at home against one of the worst afc teams, who is btw missing their only playmaker

can't get much more lopsided than that

Yeah, that's exactly what this game keeps boiling down when I look at the numbers.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

Hey Si1ly, what book is giving you 6pt teasers for (+100)? Are you getting that offshore or through a local?

Thanks in advance and BOL today 

Local.  What are the offshores charging for 6 pointers these days?  I've been cashed out of offshores for over two years now.

My breakdown has been for as long as I can remember:

6 PT (+100)
6.5 PT (-110)
7 PT (-120)
 
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Posted: #33

Silly enjoy your post and you def do well. Suprised to see you on so many teasers They alway slook good and I usually loose

 

Four teamer I liked was Jets +12 Falcons +7 Saints +20 Green Bay -1

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by cbowles1111:

Silly enjoy your post and you def do well. Suprised to see you on so many teasers They alway slook good and I usually loose

 

Four teamer I liked was Jets +12 Falcons +7 Saints +20 Green Bay -1


I think two teamers can offer gamblers a huge edge when the market is right for them.  Just ask Gordon Gecco about Wong teasers.

 
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Posted: #35
my teaser


pats-1
bears-.5
seattle+10
falcons+10


 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Hey Si1ly,

You said your numbers show 85% that Chicago wins straight up?

What about Miami, New England and Atlanta winning straight up?

Thanks in advance bud.


 
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Posted: #37
Packers just moved 2 points to -16.5 in last 5 minutes at my book.  Way to catch a good line Si1ly.  I feel like sharp money is coming on that bet.
 
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Posted: #38
GL...

 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:




Winning percentage and the moneyline are correlated numbers.

IF W% > 0.50    (-100 * X / (1 - X ) )

IF W% < 0.50    (100 - 100 * X ) / X )
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Local.  What are the offshores charging for 6 pointers these days?  I've been cashed out of offshores for over two years now.

My breakdown has been for as long as I can remember:

6 PT (+100)
6.5 PT (-110)
7 PT (-120)


Those are good. You're basically getting a free half point. I'd say the market average for offshore books is 6pt (-110) and I've even seen a few that are more expensive. One of my books is SI and they charge (-120) for a 6pt tease 

Keep up the good work and BOL today 
 
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Posted: #42
Reverse engineering this to convert the projected ML to a projected Winning % on my sheets gives you:

Miami = 47%

New England = 66%

Atlanta = 62%
 
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Posted: #43
any leans on any totals Sil1y?
 
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Posted: #44

This just popped up on social media:


Key numbers for betting NFL games based on likelihood of finish: 3 (15.6%), 4 (5.4%), 6 (5.4%), 7 (8.7%), & 10 (6%)


 
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Posted: #45
Bol today .....
 
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Posted: #46
So by teasing a 2 point underdog over 3, 4, 6, 7 you move over 35% of likely outcomes (plus 5, 8 depending on your number).
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by michaelpaul1:

Not a big fan of teasers in nfl...but good luck today...nice record...

Oh uh, a MP sighting in the mains, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars...


Nicest thing you've ever said to me.  Have a good Sunday!  
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by buffalo11:

my teaser


pats-1
bears-.5
seattle+10
falcons+10



Oh no, what happened to your avatar, somebody shot it!  
 
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Posted: #49
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by whalerchris:

any leans on any totals Sil1y?

Under in Philly, Under in Detroit, Over in Pittsburgh, Under in Green Bay
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