So What Is Up With This Betting Line?

@undermysac

 I think if someone is a sharp they wouldn’t try to hit that middle.  Instead they will bet a side.  
    Sounds more like an amateur trying to reduce risk and trying to win both but what ends up happening is they will lose juice more than not.  

I disagree. The dudes who bet real $ that moves lines go for the middle more than you'd think.

What's more risky, losing 1 straight bet and all your $. Or a juice out with a potential 2-0 banger of a middle?

Just ask yourself this, in a pretend world if one book offered you KC -1.5, and another Denver +3.5, what would you do?

@undermysac

It does sound like a good move with minimal risk and high payout (almost like a parlay) and I’ve done it before.  But after losing $500 on juice on $5000 I didn’t think it was worth it for me.   I’m curious to know how often this  does win.  

What would I do? 

If I liked Denver, I would put $10k on Denver and $5k on KC.   I’m a sharp and I know my games so I’m gonna take the high probability win    Put some on the middle just like I would sprinkle a little on a parlay   

@undermysac

 Agreed.

I've done it. 

Also you dont always lose juice if your savy enough or lucky.

Who wouldn't do it if offer zero risk to middle.

There are ways to mitigate the juice. Where you can end up taking both sides hoping for a middle with no juice lost if it doesnt middle.

That's also a wise strategy. Put more on the team that you originally have more confidence, then mitigate with a better line on the other side.

Different strokes for different folks. As long as you are being smart with your $.

@undermysac

 You gotta win 1 in 20 bets to break even with -110.   So if you can win 2 in 20 then you can win that one double bet.   

Question is can you win 1 middle in 10 tries.  Or 2 in 20 tries. 

It depends on how much the line moved, and what key #'s it's gone through or not.

Jags blew them out and the books cleaned up.