So, what have we learned - Week 4

As the number of posts touting locks and gifts of the century reaches record highs you'll understand my reluctance to wade through it as much as I have in the past. 

An interesting week, which I think there was a good deal to take from, though maybe I'll try to keep a little shorter than previous weeks that way it'll be easier to digest.

I'm going to go backwards, starting with the Eagles.

So, now we know that the only one on the planet who doesn't know that the piece that makes the Eagles go is Brian Westbrook is Andy Reid.  I suppose we knew that before, at least, we Eagles fans did, it's part of our ongoing frustration with this coaching staff.  Now you bettors know the pain as well.

Of course when the O-line takes the night off Jim Brown could have been back there and it wouldn't matter much.  Hell, Buckhalter still got over 100 on the ground, but it doesn't matter when you give up 11 sacks and have 14 penalties. 

The Eagles are an 8-8 team that past performance makes people think they can be 10-6 and win the division.  Which leads me to this.

Certain things get said every year, and the reason is because there are certain things you can't say enough.  This week you get this.

This year is not last year, don't bet like it is.

I mean, I suppose you could bet the Eagles like they were before Donovan went out and you'd be close, but if you bet them like they're the team that finished the season so strong last year or broke out against a bad Lions' defense last week, you're asking for trouble.

Hell, until everybody gets back (Westbrook, B-Dawk, Lito, etc.) I'd just stay off 'em all together.

Speaking of the Lions, those overs still work, but man did they do it the hard way today.  Griese with two redzone turnovers if I remember right, the Lions with one and a missed FG.  Ugh.

Speaking of the Eagles and the Bears, the Bears should have suggested what was going to happen to the birds tonight, too many people hurt can only keep you in the game so long.

It looks like you can figure the Bears for middle of the pack based on injury and that post-Super Bowl hangover.

It also looks like the Cowboys are the best team, by far, in the NFC.  But as Denny Green would tell you, if you want to crown them after four weeks, go ahead, but it's a long season. 

And the Rams, like the Bears, like the Eagles prove that you can have lots of talent (Bulger, Jackson, etc.) but if you can't keep everybody on the field, you can't win.

Unless you're Buffalo.  I was one who lost on Buffalo, and I might again because their defense is just that thin, but I'm not just a little wary of Trent Edwards.  Not because I think he's the second coming of Brady or Big Ben, someone who can come in and win immediately, but because nobody has any tape on him yet.  Give it another week and it should start kicking in for them.

Speaking of the Jets, does this team look destined for mediocrity or what?  If you want to even pretend your a playoff team you win games like that today.  But when your record last year was inflated by playing bad teams, maybe now you prove who you really are.  A team with a suspect defense and an offense that lacks consistency.

Miami used to have a pretty significant home field advantage in September, but it seems they've even lost that.

Today I learned (again) that Trent Green's career is just waiting for someone to pull the plug on it.  I'll bet against them or lay off their games until the QB change.

On the other side of that game, I admire Oakland flying across the country for an early game, with a backup QB and shoving it right down Mami's throat. 

If I'm not mistaken they get Domnick Rhodes back in another week or two, when they do, if they can just get even competent QB play, they should be a fairly average to decent team--which is a huge jump from where they were last year.  Their defense isn't scaring me right now, which is fine, because I like to play overs, but Lamont Jordan is on a mission and if they use him and Rhodes as a two-headed beast they really won't need to throw all that much.

Now, you say, how could I have gone this long without talking Cleveland Browns football?  Good question.  Really I think it's mostly a byproduct of being so thrown off by their first game, it's had this weird ripple effect on me and I feel skewed on my own team.  It's very odd, it's been a long time since I haven't had a feel for them like this.  Great game today.  Make no mistake, they won that game.  Baltimore didn't give it to them, they took it.

Which I think says more about Baltimore than Cleveland.  Cleveland seems to be willing to play to their opponent (save Pitt).  With Cincy, they leave the defense on the sidelines and throw.  With Oakland they run and run and score ugly.  With Baltimore, they stop the run and sustain drives.  It's very odd, but good for them.

Something to note on Cleveland, their offensive line is about to get better.  Ryan Tucker, a starter who everybody likes in the locker room is coming off a suspension next week.

For Baltimore, I don't even know what to say except that they have a QB problem and this performance proves Pittsburgh is the class of that division.

And yes, I know Pittsburgh lost today, I bet Arizona.  But that was one of those weird situations, Ward out, the Cardinals' staff being Pitt's staff the year before.  That situation won't happen again this season, I think Pitt is for real and can only hope this loss creates some value with them.

Arizona, however, I now hope plays Kurt Warner a lot because it's a known fact that the more Kurt Warner plays the more turnovers he has, the ratio is proportionate. 

Again, though, they're becoming Pittsburgh west, lots of running, then some targeted shots through the air.

They're the anti-Cincy.

Congrats to all those who had TB today.  I wasn't one, I actually stayed off that game (thanks Rink), but it's tough to say that team doesn't look for real.  I'm starting to think they're this year's New Orleans.  Their line apparently is playing over its head and I don't know what's going on with that defense, but it seems stout as ever. 

Tough loss of Cadillac, though.  It will be interesting to see if Ernest Graham (cough, former Gator, cough) steps up.

Atlanta won, good for them, but I really think that was a by-product of that defense knowing Schaub and Houston being so hurt.  I won't back them again unless it's a spot this good.

It seems Delhomme might be out for a while, if so, right now it looks bad for Carolina, but I'll give Carr another week to pull it out of that tailspin.  I doubt he does it, but I'll wait and see.

I have trouble taking a lot from the Giants' win tonight.  Don't get me wrong, it was impressive, but sort of like it was hard to take a ton from the Eagles win last week, it was one of those games where everything just went right, at least for their defense.  Good for them, but I'm still not sold on that team.  If they're really something to be worried about they put that game away before halftime or immediately after they force that three and out coming out of half.

But they didn't, and no person on this planet was surprised about that.

Denver, undermanned, tried, at least for a half.  I still don't think they're very good either.

It seems to me, right now, you sort of have to back Indy, NE, and Pittsburgh until they start letting you down.  Now, Indy doesn't like to cover big numbers (though they did today), but can any team really say they're as good as these three?

Oh, and congratulations Herm Edwards, you're no longer the second worst coach in the AFC West.  Although, maybe we have to keep the jury out on Kiffin because he's so young, so maybe you still are.

Now, Norv is getting a lot of help being this bad, but he's a trainwreck, so's his team.  Last year, up 10 at half, SD would have won that game by 21, this year they lose by double digits, at home.

Again, last year isn't this year.  And right now, SD and KC look about on par with each other, and that is, not very good football teams.  Though, really gritty win today, KC, great job.

Speaking of Norv, man, if I were the Niners and/or AJ Smith I'd get on the phone right now and see if you could trade that f**ker back where he came from.

Of course, if Alex Smith is really hurt it won't matter much because they'll just load up to stop Gore with Dilfer and it'll be over.  But right now it's over with Smith in there, too.  SF looks awful, oh and Seattle is still soft.

Right now in the NFC the only team I think I really like to bet is Detroit, which sort of worries me, because they're Detroit and because they have no defense.

Oh, you know what, I also kind of like GB.  For this reason,  GB's now had two total sucker games, on the road, and they've won and covered in them both.  That says a lot to me.

Other than that, betting against Minny, Chicago, NO, SF, St. Louis, maybe Carolina seems sort of the way to go with leans toward betting on Dallas and TB.

I have a feeling there will be more tomorrow, but for now, that's what I've learned today, how about you?

Joe P,

Sorry to force the comment, you obviously havent been watching the Cards to make the comment you did.

Warner saved that game for the team and almost saved Balt but definately was responsible for two ATS covers for bettors.

The turnover you so blame him for was a snap that hit his shoulder.

Sorry to make a small comment, but if you have seen his numbers in pre-season and play this regular season, you might retrace that blanket comment.

The Cards improved the offensive line, it is all that was lacking from the start. Look at James running numbers, quite the turn from last year.

Less blame on Warner, more blame on Green and his decisions as coach previous..

Giants

 

i learned that i should bet more games...i am 10-5-3 betting games and picking all the games i am 38-19-4 this year...sure i wouldnt have bet every game but ive missed out on some winners

 

ive learned that i am right and the giants did get the better of the Eli Manning trade...Rivers is a joke

Giants are good they lost to dallas and green bay, both 4-0. they played 2 solid division games and now face the shit Jets.

 

Also right in the fact that i said that the Ravens D is the most overrated unit in the NFL and they showed it again, did i have the balls to bet the browns no , but i like being right i guess

and i learned that tom glavine needs to go kill himself. a career built on getting pitches 2 feet off the plate called strikes hopefully ended with him hitting the opposing pitcher with a pitch with the bases loaded...nice work tom, now i can bet on the phillies and indians for the next 3 weeks

 

adding this, i hate the cowboys but tony romo is fun to watch

Thanks, jonny.

Sorry to force the comment, you obviously havent been watching the Cards to make the comment you did.

Ah, here's the part you hate, Wall.

I will not retract my statement.

Not only have a I watched AZ this year, I've bet every game they've been in and am actually riding a 4-0 streak with them.  (Thank you, Gambling Gods.)

I give Warner a lot of credit, he did get that money last week basically on his own.

Now, that said, the very week before Baltimore did exactly the same thing, they let a a lesser team back into the game after dominating them for a half at home.  So while I do give him credit, let's not say it was an isolated incident (not to mention that Baltimore seems to be coming apart a bit).

And yes, he was a spark today, but two things.

One, I don't care how the turnovers come, when Kurt Warner plays, they do come.  They just do.  Second, if Pittsburgh doesn't get cute on 3rd and 1  or whatever it was on the 2 yardline and throw that INT we all may have lost on the Cards today.

All I want from the Cards is to keep Warner in an 'occasional' role, because when you can gameplan for him as The Starter, bad things happen.  He's just not the guy he used to be.

But he runs a great two-minute drill so let him do that.  Make teams prepare for them both, that's fine with me.

I'm glad he's having success, but seriously, you don't want him to replace Matt Lienart, and if he does you'll find me on the other side of that team a lot and I'm confident I'll win more than I'll lose.

Because at this point in his career this guy's Trent Green with better weapons.  That means 21 points and two turnovers a game as a starter.  It's just what his history says.

Also, Wall, I totally agree with you about the O-line.

They're finally playing to their potential.

I credit this new staff with that.  And that's huge, because EJ was headed toward obscurity until that happened, now he's driving that team.

i have only a few words:

When in doubt, take the points....

this season more than ever is going to kill the public bettor. every dime you made in 2005 (the year of the fave) you will lose it all back and then some if you havent already

 

 

That goes for College and NFL  I have played my share of dogs and done well

Joe,

Sorry but I dont see the numbers you are seeing. This is what I see-

Last 5 games played he has over a 120 passer rating, 2 fumbles, zero INTs and 4 TD passes.

Matt on the other hand has a 65 passer rating and not even close to production, although no fumbles.

I see zero correlation to time played and fumbles, sorry but you are completely wrong with that statement. Two fumbles in four games with no INTs and a 125 average passer rating seems better than his competitor.

You are basing the comment on past years, a different team and conditions. Betting based on last years theories will bring you many losses this year.

I know there were many games I had to go against my normal thinking, and it is a good thing I did.

The point is moot though, no way Matt sits, the coach would lose his job if things didnt work out perfectly..even though I really think the better QB is Warner by far and the numbers prove it.

Bears D is wearing down and getting shredded in the 2nd half, so when HT lines are offered, take the Bears opponent.

Bears have been outscored 82-30 in the 2nd half this year, and outscored 58-14 in the 4th quarter.   With all of their injury woes, I expect that trend to continue.

Turner watch:  Norv and Ron are now 0-6 ATS in the last 3 games.   Overall this year, they're 1-7.....the lone victory coming in the week 1 Bears/Bolts matchup.....which, of course, was a guaranteed victory for one of the Turners.

Hey KOAJ....or anybody who knows.....where can I find season ATS stats for the NFL?   I'd like to know which years were the year of the fave, or year of the dog, or which seasons were almost evenly balanced between faves/dogs.   I'd also be interested in seeing total O/U stats for each season.

  Thanks

Sorry about that, Losuds, but knowing you, you'll get one of those back real soon.

The problem with looking to bet against the Eagles O-line is that some days they will show up.  Last night, they didn't, week one they didn't, but last week they played great.  There were a number of problems last night, the O-line was one of the biggest, but on other days it'll be the lack of quality receivers or that Donovan is putting balls into the dirt.

Of course, no sooner do I say TB seems for real than they lose not only Cadillac for the year, but their LT, Luke Petigout as well.

Yeah, Webba, I'm really happy with the Browns learning curve right now.  Actually I'm starting to think this team is this year's version of KC last year.

Wall, we're probably going to agree to disagree here.

As I said, I think Warner is great in a limited role right now.  I think that helps limit teams really gameplanning for him and the chances he has to throw the ball to the other team or otherwise let it dribble down his leg.

I think he's probably the best backup in the league right now, especially since Schaub is now a starter, but like I said, I think if you put him in there every down you're going to be looking at Trent Green like performances week in and week out.

try here for starters

 

 

I was  very wrong about the Packers and I think Farve is amazing at his age and think they have a talented team to watch