CHICAGO AT BUFFALO (in Toronto): An opener of Chicago by 2.5 when immediately to -3. It's not like sharps think Jay Cutler has suddenly figured things out. But, the Bears are coming off a bye, while Buffalo is coming off back-to-back overtime games. This game isn't a true home spot for the Bills either. So, laying something under the key number of three appealed to a lot of sharps. And, moving the game out of the basic strategy teaser window was fine for sportsbooks. Buffalo +8.5 would have been a popular two-teamer option. Sportsbooks don't want to root for Jay Cutler -8.5 no matter how tired Buffalo is!
SAN DIEGO AT HOUSTON: Sharps, particularly some big name sharps, have been in love with San Diego lately. They got hurt against New England, but made it all back (and more) when the Chargers covered against Tennessee last week. The same bettors were involved in driving an opener of San Diego -1.5 up to San Diego -3 here. Nothing on the totals yet. I'll only mention those when there are moves.
NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA: Not much interest here...with New Orleans still sitting at -6.5. That actually tells you a lot. If the sharps liked the Saints, they would have jumped on anything below a TD. They didn't do that, which means they're hoping the public hits the favorite Sunday so they can step in at +7 with the home underdog. Openers near critical numbers help you determine sharp interest very quickly. They took Chicago -2.5, but didn't take New Orleans -6.5. The total here is up a half a point from 40.5 to 41.
ARIZONA AT MINNESOTA: Not much betting interest at all here. Minnesota is at -8 and hasn't moved. Now, that's right in the basic strategy teaser window, meaning A LOT of bettors will have Minnesota -2 in two-teamers if there isn't a change. The fact that we haven't seen a change tells you that sportsbooks are okay with rooting for Arizona here. They don't trust Minnesota to play well given everything going on there of late. Sharps will see if the public nibbles on Favre before stepping in on the dog. Maybe they get +8.5 or more to go along with Minnesota -2 or 2.5 in teasers.
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA: A rare dog sighting so far, with Tampa Bay currently at +8.5 after opening at +9.5. I'm interested to see how sportsbooks handle this one on Sunday. You stick Atlanta at -8.5 on the board Sunday, and the whole world will have the Falcons at -2.5 in teasers. If you put a 9 up...sharps will probably come back for more on the dog. Sportsbooks have some time to figure out what kind of position and risk they want to take here.
NY JETS AT DETROIT: The Jets go on the list of favorites being bet early. They opened at -3.5, and went up to -4. This is actually showing STRONG sentiment for the Jets. If sharps liked the Lions, they would have taken the hook and run with it. A popular dog +3.5 just isn't going to stay up for long. This line went to +4. What's that tell you? The total rose from 41 to 42 with the Jets getting out of windy weather and playing indoors this week. Mark Sanchez did have some good games in better scoring conditions than he saw last week.
MIAMI AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore goes on the same list with the Jets, as a small favorite going up. The Ravens opened at -4, and rose to -5. I used this specific example in the opening. This isn't taking a position to set up a middle because so few games land on five. This is sharps thinking four is too low and getting their money in. Miami's played a couple of very physical games in a row with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Sharps apparently think they'll wear down on the road vs. another AFC North opponent. The total is up a point from 39.5 to 40.5, possibly swayed by that Buffalo/Baltimore game on this field two weeks ago.
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