Pickinvet, your words here truly leave me speechless. So when your first saw Baltimore -1 your first thought was: 'wow, what a fair line that is'. If that was your first reaction, I will go now to the monastery.
Funny, my first reaction was "how in the hell is Indy not -3 or more?". Yet Pickinvet's initial reaction seemed to be how it was a fair line. It's those "fair lines" that have the public leaning on Indianapolis at 75%, huh?
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
Pickinvet, your words here truly leave me speechless. So when your first saw Baltimore -1 your first thought was: 'wow, what a fair line that is'. If that was your first reaction, I will go now to the monastery.
Funny, my first reaction was "how in the hell is Indy not -3 or more?". Yet Pickinvet's initial reaction seemed to be how it was a fair line. It's those "fair lines" that have the public leaning on Indianapolis at 75%, huh?
I wouldn't have been surprised if it was -3, I'm saying that I see the reasoning for it being -1, and its not that big of difference anyway you just don't have to buy the hook now.
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I wouldn't have been surprised if it was -3, I'm saying that I see the reasoning for it being -1, and its not that big of difference anyway you just don't have to buy the hook now.
I do think there are so called 'trap games' but I think the phrase is over used. I also believe you can over think games. IMO there is a lot of over thinking going on with this match up. I'm on Indy for 2 units. Not calling it my POY or even my POW but I think Indy finds a way to win. GL
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I do think there are so called 'trap games' but I think the phrase is over used. I also believe you can over think games. IMO there is a lot of over thinking going on with this match up. I'm on Indy for 2 units. Not calling it my POY or even my POW but I think Indy finds a way to win. GL
Baltimore is a good team, they've had there tough breaks along the way and were able to hang with the good teams, Earlier this year Indy was +3 in these spots, and they covered by a mile... Now indy has gotten some credit and are not getting +3, but since they have not covered in several weeks and have looked vulnerable and are against a hungry good team in Balt the line is basically a pick with a move of +1 to -1 which doesn't mean a whole lot just messes with our heads.
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Baltimore is a good team, they've had there tough breaks along the way and were able to hang with the good teams, Earlier this year Indy was +3 in these spots, and they covered by a mile... Now indy has gotten some credit and are not getting +3, but since they have not covered in several weeks and have looked vulnerable and are against a hungry good team in Balt the line is basically a pick with a move of +1 to -1 which doesn't mean a whole lot just messes with our heads.
I wouldn't have been surprised if it was -3, I'm saying that I see the reasoning for it being -1, and its not that big of difference anyway you just don't have to buy the hook now.
I see the reasoning for the line opening Baltimore -1 also. It is that the book is trolling for Indianapolis money and they are getting it to the tune of 87% on the spread according to Sportsinsights. You of course are one of those people who think that the books are trying to get a 50/50 split. Isn't that so?
If that were the case, the opening line, I assure you, would not be Baltimore -1.
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Quote Originally Posted by pickinvet:
I wouldn't have been surprised if it was -3, I'm saying that I see the reasoning for it being -1, and its not that big of difference anyway you just don't have to buy the hook now.
I see the reasoning for the line opening Baltimore -1 also. It is that the book is trolling for Indianapolis money and they are getting it to the tune of 87% on the spread according to Sportsinsights. You of course are one of those people who think that the books are trying to get a 50/50 split. Isn't that so?
If that were the case, the opening line, I assure you, would not be Baltimore -1.
I don't really know what they are thinking to be honest. I just handicap and pick games and don't read too much into this stuff. If you guys do better ignoring the matchups and outsmarting the lines good for you, I do better by cappin the games and making picks to each their own I guess
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I don't really know what they are thinking to be honest. I just handicap and pick games and don't read too much into this stuff. If you guys do better ignoring the matchups and outsmarting the lines good for you, I do better by cappin the games and making picks to each their own I guess
no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.
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no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.
no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.
A little like Romo's stellar record in November?
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Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:
no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.
no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.
You are making my point, yet again... So the guy, who's team is undefeated, and has never lost against the Ravens, is only -1? Wow...those Vegas oddsmakers need to rethink what they do for a living.
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Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:
no-one in this thread has mentioned Peyton Manning's record vs the Ravens. Well I'll just let you all in on a little secret, hes won every time. He beat them when they had a good secondary and a scary defense. He will be picking apart the Ravens secondary all game long.
You are making my point, yet again... So the guy, who's team is undefeated, and has never lost against the Ravens, is only -1? Wow...those Vegas oddsmakers need to rethink what they do for a living.
I see the reasoning for the line opening Baltimore -1 also. It is that the book is trolling for Indianapolis money and they are getting it to the tune of 87% on the spread according to Sportsinsights. You of course are one of those people who think that the books are trying to get a 50/50 split. Isn't that so?
If that were the case, the opening line, I assure you, would not be Baltimore -1.
Are you saying Vegas knows the outcome of this game already?
I was aways of the mind that thier optimal situation was a 50/50 split in the action. So you do believe that they like to "trap" the public into betting the wrong side? I'm just asking.
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
I see the reasoning for the line opening Baltimore -1 also. It is that the book is trolling for Indianapolis money and they are getting it to the tune of 87% on the spread according to Sportsinsights. You of course are one of those people who think that the books are trying to get a 50/50 split. Isn't that so?
If that were the case, the opening line, I assure you, would not be Baltimore -1.
Are you saying Vegas knows the outcome of this game already?
I was aways of the mind that thier optimal situation was a 50/50 split in the action. So you do believe that they like to "trap" the public into betting the wrong side? I'm just asking.
INDY -1 is a classic example of a spread that makes you look twice at that card. I've been gambling for 11 years now and when I was a rookie I would no brainer hammer Indy -1. Wouldn't have to think twice about it.
Once you reach a certain plateau in your gambling career you start to notice the angles. The reasoning why the line is Indy -1. Cold weather, outdoor game for a dome team, aggressive blitzing defense which when effective shuts down the best of QB's. Pressure is the great equalizer for defense's against QB's like Brady, Brees and Manning. See Giants vs. Patriots superbowl... Giants D does the unthinkable and holds the explosive Pats Offense to 14 and beats a team that was undefeated going into the Super Bowl...
I would not bet Indy in this game on principle alone, that's not to say it's a sucker bet or one that won't win... If you like Indy hammer it now cause the line only climbs from here on in.
I'll personally wait to Baltimore climbs to 3 on gameday and I'll lay the -120 for the 3 points and the home teams...
Experience doesn't lead to choosing the right side of the Baltimore/Imdy game in week 11. Experience allows you to see the angles and understand the factors at play. You have to cap the game and make a decision.
If you've been around long enough you'll see these games go both ways. You have to have your pulse on these teams week in and week out...
GL
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This is my take on the NFL and spreads...
INDY -1 is a classic example of a spread that makes you look twice at that card. I've been gambling for 11 years now and when I was a rookie I would no brainer hammer Indy -1. Wouldn't have to think twice about it.
Once you reach a certain plateau in your gambling career you start to notice the angles. The reasoning why the line is Indy -1. Cold weather, outdoor game for a dome team, aggressive blitzing defense which when effective shuts down the best of QB's. Pressure is the great equalizer for defense's against QB's like Brady, Brees and Manning. See Giants vs. Patriots superbowl... Giants D does the unthinkable and holds the explosive Pats Offense to 14 and beats a team that was undefeated going into the Super Bowl...
I would not bet Indy in this game on principle alone, that's not to say it's a sucker bet or one that won't win... If you like Indy hammer it now cause the line only climbs from here on in.
I'll personally wait to Baltimore climbs to 3 on gameday and I'll lay the -120 for the 3 points and the home teams...
Experience doesn't lead to choosing the right side of the Baltimore/Imdy game in week 11. Experience allows you to see the angles and understand the factors at play. You have to cap the game and make a decision.
If you've been around long enough you'll see these games go both ways. You have to have your pulse on these teams week in and week out...
Really jackass? when? date and score? you'll have a hard time finding it because it NEVER happened
okay so before the thrashings occur, I am wrong. Peyton has lost to them, but it was before 2002. He is 6-0 since 2002. Sorry for sounding like a jerk.
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Quote Originally Posted by scsiegel89:
Really jackass? when? date and score? you'll have a hard time finding it because it NEVER happened
okay so before the thrashings occur, I am wrong. Peyton has lost to them, but it was before 2002. He is 6-0 since 2002. Sorry for sounding like a jerk.
My betting stragety is whoever play monday night and they play lousy bet them cover and the team that playing like a team killer bet them lose reason mdn is on national tv.means a lot of betor whatch the game they can fool them with that.
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My betting stragety is whoever play monday night and they play lousy bet them cover and the team that playing like a team killer bet them lose reason mdn is on national tv.means a lot of betor whatch the game they can fool them with that.
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