1)Stay very honest with yourself.
2)Chase the passion you have for football, not money
3)Budget what you can lose for a season and quit when you lose it
4)Read the newsletters for sharp picks, across the street they keep records of their win loss record so you can eliminate the coin flippers *(almost all)
5)if you need to chase an adrenaline high by making big bets, walk away
All this 95%-5% is bullshit. I booked bets for better than 15 years , got busted , cost me a small fortune and I can tell you that not 1 % win constinently. I looked forward to baseball and college football , as most people's money management is nonexistance and both sports offer literally thousands of different bets. I have posted on here that durng my booking years, I had one guy who won regularly. It helped he had a $10,000 a year service that fed him the winners. I didn't cut him off because i laid off double what he bet. The rest of the 1%er's didn't bet with me , but they are out there. Handicapping winners is not easy , but do your time & study your play. My truly one piece of advice to all is to never bet more than you can afford to lose ,and limit your plays to a handful a week. If not for things beyond my control , I would still be Covers' Baseball Forum's Legend . Next year I will be ready , if everything works out OK. One more thing , if you can't find a dog to play in football I think you should pass . If you can't get away from a favorite just make that one play. In football you have at least a 50-50 chance of winning. As always, GL on all your plays.
Ever think that maybe winners don't bet with bookies?
Just a great example of someone who knows something specific, who extrapolates that to something they know nothing about and assumes it fits. "During my booking years...." and then makes some wild assumption that his experience is everyone's experience.
You think sportsbooks employ sophisticated profiling software and humans for risk management for fun?
Google "Dunning - Kruger effect"
@vanzack
I think you've overestimated the number of Type B sports bettors...more @ 2.5% imho...it's that hard of a nut to crack.
Here's a thought to consider: How many other casino gambling propositions are there where the bettor has to give up 10% just to place a bet? The Pick 6 Wheel maybe is the only one I can think of, and it's a monster sucker play. My point is, bettors don't understand how much of a dog they are after the bet is placed, that betting sports is comparable to playing the Pick 6, at least odds wise. If bettors understood this, I mean really understand it, they would be more selective with their wagers.
And another thing, I think the Type A-Type B dichotomy is what's called in logic as a 'false dilemma' fallacy. I think there's a Type C player among sports bettors, and you find some of them here on the Covers forum. The Type C player is professional in their approach to betting but isn't just looking to make money. They're in it for kicks too. They're sort of a hybrid of the two. And you can find Type C players at the poker table too. They don't win as much as the Type B player, but they win enough not to fall in the Type A category.
Anyway, great post, always enjoy your insight.
RT2
@RebelTell2
ya i think the actual numbers are 98.4% lose and 1.6% win long-term, think i read that somewhere
the key is long-term, a lot of guys talk about having a great season or 2 or 3, but a bad season or 2 or 3 negates those in the long run
remember, you only hear about the wins, the losses get buried into oblivion
most important thing is to be honest with yourself, as soon as you start lying to yourself about how successful you actually are....well then you are doomed
Great points, great post.
couple nuggets:
-I never, EVER play slots or blackjack. The house wins more, but you have NO chance to win long term.
-Gambling expanding is the best thing ever. You can get better odds by shopping around-this takes a significant chunk out of the 10%. and I'm hoping eventually with competition they'll go to lower rates somewhere, like a Pinnacle a place that caters to sharps.
-You can win at this stuff, it depends on your angle. As I've said vanzack has his angle, i got my angle, they do not connect at all. Find YOUR angle, don't try copying someone else.
But yeah...eventually it's do you REALLY want to do this, cause there are a sh*tload of ways to make money a hell of a lot easier, and this is a way to ruin your life.
Best thing to happen to me was brick and mortar, Vegas. Got me away from offline.
So if I pick maybe 7 key games all year and go 6 and 1 by being very selective on games the whole season and play 1k a game with a net profit of $4900 what is that considered? By doing this I’ve enjoyed watching the games and made 4900 on the year...I consider that a win.
Yet most will come into the forums and post 5 games a week and try to prove they are the best capper. Also the ones that go tout are forced to make picks to for their clients. Point is be selective and pick your spots. Don’t get caught up in all the hype in the forums because all that will do is promote action. This industry is to get you to play everyday and lose...
Don’t bet on sports you nothing about. I deposited money for college football season and I play the odd baseball total. I’m up about 500 in 3 weeks in these sports. Then I go bet on dumb shit I know nothing about so I’m even. I haven’t bet on anything other than football and baseball and football and I’m getting the my winnings back slowly.
MAKE YOUR PICKS BEFORE YOU COME ON THIS FORUM. So many times I come on here read these threads and tail someone or change my mind. It really screws with your mind and puts doubt in your mind be confident about your own plays.
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