SEA -3 (read post for adj vigorish)

This is the query:

week = 1 and HF and tpS(W) < opS(W) and (total > 43.2 or P:W) and opS(W) > 7.5

ATS:  36-13-2 (5.0,73.5%)

In week 1, Home Favorites that had fewer wins than their opponents last season and the total is 43.5 or more or they beat their opponents in the previous matchup and the opponents won at least 8 games last season.  They cover 73.5% of the games by an average of 5.0 points.

For you Nervous Nellies out there that can't take SEA because they let Kenneth Walker III go to KC and NE added A.J. Brown, all skilled, experience linesmakers have accounted for that; i.e. using last season's closing/this season's opening Power Ratings, Massey has SEA -6.88 and Sagarin has SEA -6.40.  Massey had NE ranked #12; they don't scare me just because they added A.J. Brown.

I took SEA -3/-117 for two units late last night and now SEA is -3/-116 at Heritage.  I'm just glad I didn't have to lay -3.5

You SDQL adepts who ran the query just to double check it and/or potentially enhance it will notice that the query also likes CIN and KC.  I have two queries that favor TB and none that favor NE, so it was easy to take SEA and skip CIN.

Using this query:

week = 1 and HF and tpS(W) < opS(W) and 39.7 < total < 47.2 and P:L and opS(W) > 7.5

KC is just 14-16-0 ATS, so that was another game to skip.

Good luck everybody.

nice find. it's going to be an interesting game to watch based on these changes. i feel like Seattle will have better continuity except in the RB position. Don't know what to expect from New England with their new playmakers. Game will be much more competitive for sure. i have Seattle winning by 4. GL DBW.

@Digitalkarma

@detroitdavid

@DogbiteWilliams

 Bol this season 

Nice research DBW.

The continuity of returning linemen favors SEA as well along with the A J Brown hype forced me

to sprinkle a little UNDER 228.5 passing yards (Maye)..................................................gl

I see the double posts problem here still exists,at least they have the edit option up and running

@DogbiteWilliams

 Like it.. I’m staying away but I have Seattle 24-20    

Good Luck tonight and the entire season cheers to winning 

@vankiep_0007

@jowchoo

@ChOmP

Winning that bet should help SEA.  Good luck.

Nice hit.  Congratulations.

SEA trailed 0-10 so I am happy with a push.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Nice call, I got burned by the Seattle hook. 

Yup sometimes a push is as sweet as a win.

btw: just a heads up, Both, SF and LAR are at home in week 2 and with substantial rest delta in their favor, it becomes interesting

especially for whoever is (0-1)..Maybe a creative SDQL query is needed...lol

@Europa

 the delay of game cost them the cover....

Tough loss.  I certainly wish I could predict line moves.

Nice call dog, QB going out and Seattle still gets the win and push............ .

Had the QB played likely a different result, Seattle wins by more then 3.

I didn't watch the game, but I was really disappointed when I saw the box score.  This query tells the sad story (interceptions are a DEF stat in Gimme the Dog queries):

HF and INT = 3 and o:INT = 0

ATS:  154-59-2 (7.1,72.3%)

Home Favorites that intercept 3 passes while throwing none cover 72.3% of the games by an average of 7.1 points.  SEA bettors were pretty unlucky; hopefully things will even out as the season goes on.

Rams sucked like big big shit. They went for a 4th & 1 in 2nd half at SF 1 and nadaaaa. After that, nothing else for the whole game. Like they gave up. 

According to my PR II Seattle should of won by 15.54 pts based on how that game was played by both teams.

That is with a backup QB.

Dog I was wondering if those querries you run use the closing lines to get the ATS records ???

I assume they do. Which would mean you need to get the closing number or better to have the same probability ATS.

Seattle closed at -3 some books but I did see -3.5 as well.

Covers had it -3.5.

Do you know if they use closing line ??

Is there any way you know of to know this ???

It seems logical they would.

SDQL all use closing line. Most closing lines were 3

@theclaw

TC, Gimme the Dog does update their lines, but I do not know the source for what they use.  They are using SEA -3.5 as the closing line unless they forgot to update it, so they have SEA 0-1 ATS this season.

I know GTD does update the lines in their database.  The TB-CIN total was 52.5 earlier and it is now 50.5.