JC, have you ever tabulated your ATS results with these Munchkin queries with a sample size of 10 games or less? How about 5 games or less, and especially in the playoffs? For research value, it doesn't matter whether or not you actually bet them. Certainly a huge average ATS margin is very enticing, but I regard a small sample size as just natural variance rather than predictive. I label queries with 9 games or less with an "M" so I don't have to click on them to see how strong and reliable they are. My M queries are roughly .500 over the long run; I use them only as support or repudiation rather than acting on them in isolation.
Fair enough DBW. I have always outperformed my season long win ats percentage in the playoffs ( will not be hard this year lol)
year in year out and I asked why? Had some back and forth with indio999 (where is he?) on how I see the rear view mirror drastically shrinking and that
playoff querys and short rear view mirrors better correlated to success. Certainly rule changes and modern schemes have taken their toll on long term
trend success, along with the NFL's push for parity and points. Imho anything past 5 years is data I am not interested in anymore (home team DIV dogs)
angles are history.I still think Vegas misprices some situations and SDQL for me is that search engine BUT only recent data. AI has finally allowed me to create a line
of scrimmage model and the back testing has been awesome. Hoping to marry these results with the very vulnerable props market and SMASH next year
Hope you are well and good luck going forward.
Hot Forum Topics
