SDQL ..a new tool for me

Just beginning this journey, very promising I believe.

A bit complicated but doable.

My first query produced a nugget maybe...lol

3DP>=55 and season>=2012

Teams that average 55 or greater 3rd down percentage success are 72% ats last 10 years

Play on BUFF and SEATTLE...okay will do

And if you add Away qualifier the record is 206-70 or 75% ats..good enough to back SEATTLE

Looking at road teams that are averaging 40% or greater 3rd down success are 63% ats winners over a large sample size (10 years)

779-451 = 63.3% ats winners..Good enough for a small look see......lol

Play on CINCY / PHILLY / MIAMI......ok will do ........  3DP>=40 and A and season>=2012

Throwing out MIAMI as  they are a road div favorite. But will add PHILLY as I already have CINCY as my best play.

Hi jowchoo,

just curious, why isn't SEATTLE not included in the result of the query on post #3?

@jowchoo

 Adding D (dog) to the query:  3DP>=55 and A and D and season>=2012

the ats record goes to 78%...WOW

@Joe_Cool

 They are already there look at post #2

I have a nice looking play ON DALLAS:

o:RY<= 70 and o:PY<=230 and season>=2012

A team that rushes for less than 70 yds on average and pass for less than 230 on average losses 80% ats

Large sample size 374-91 9(ten years)...................PLAY ON DALLAS

@jowchoo

 Thanks.

By the way, what database/website do you run the query on?

Does this seem right?

RY>=150 and o:RY<100 and season>=2012

In the last 10 years if a team rushes for 150 or more yards AND hold their opponents to less than 100 rushing yds

then they cover ats at 80.5%....(.537-130 ).

Maybe someone familiar with SDQL could set me straight.

@Joe_Cool

 KillerSports.com

Welcome to the Rabbit hole 

Found a totals play..This is fun....lol 

PY>=250 and o:PY>250 and season>=2012

If both teams exceed 250 passing yds then the over/under record is (821-253) 76.4% overs.

Play on MIA/JETS...pass too many injury concerns

Moving the PY down to 225 we get 2 more plays and ats win rate stays very delicious.

PY>=225 and o:PY>225 and season>=2012

huge sample size (1242-459) 73% OVERS

play on: PHIL/ARZ over 48.5 and KC/LV over 51

You have made disastrous mistakes.

For example, see Comment #14.  PY>=225 and o:PY>225 are the figures for the current game you are analyzing.  IF LAC and CLV both throw for 225+ yards, today's game will probably go over.  You should use p:PY > 225 for the previous game if the team did throw for over 225 yards.  I am not good with averages, so you should ask Indigo999 for help with that.  

"AF and p:PY > 225" would mean that an Away Favorite threw for over 225 yards in the previous game.  "AF and PY > 225" would mean that IF the road chalk throws for over 225 yards, the query results will show the SU, cover/fail and over/under results.

"AD and points > 37.5" covers 95.1% of the games.  If you can correctly predict a road dog that score 38+ points, you are pretty damn psychic and you will make a fortune.  "AD and p:points > 37.5" covers just 50.5% of the games.  A road dog scoring a pile of points in the previous game has virtually no predictive value.

I hope you can cancel your wagers unless you like those games for some other solid reasons.  Good luck today and in the future.

@DogbiteWilliams

 thankyou..my bets are all small as i get use to this.

Don't let these early mistakes discourage you; everybody makes them.

I will attest to how valuable SDQL is.  I hate betting road favorites and I know very little about NCAAFB, but I am 2-0 on NCAAFB favorites this year.  I had OKLA -11 vs NEB back on 9/17 and I had TOL -5.5 vs NIL yesterday.  The queries were totally responsible for those wagers; I do not know the names of any of the players or coaches on those four teams.

I am only 4-2 overall in NCAAFB, so don't think that sharp queries always produce winners.  Certainly my disastrous 2020 season was mostly caused by queries that failed.  My best-ever season last year was also mostly due to queries.

Most queries are useless.  Either the sample size is too small to be reliable, the ats margins are too small to warrant action, or the results are too close to 50/50.  Don't get discouraged, you will eventually uncover a gem that will produce more winners than losers.  Just keep on plugging.  It's just so much fun.  I enjoy handicapping a lot more than watching the games, and it seems like the less I watch the better I do.  I bet small amounts ($7 units), so the money is pretty immaterial.  I want to win to see my handicapping be successful.  Maybe someday I'll be a high roller.

The longest journey begins with a single step.  Good luck.

If I find the teams that currently have averaged 225 or more passing yards..that equates to PY

and if their opponents also have averaged 225 or more passing yards..that should be o:PY

then the query PY>=225 and o:PY>=225 should describe that set of conditions....no?

I am not trying to analyze LAC/CLEV game just a general set of parameters.

What do you think ................PY>=225 and o:PY>225 and season>=2012...............measures and gives the o/u of 1242-459 record?

i thank you sir..

I believe I needed to use.....A and tA(PY)>=225 and oA(o:PY)>=225 and season>2012

this produces far less exciting results....lol

@jowchoo

It measures the results of present games wherein both teams pass for 225 yards.  It has nothing to do with past results of individual previous games or seasonal averages.  If you can accurately predict games that feature both teams tossing for 225 yards, then roughly 73% of those games should go over.  How are you picking such games?  PY > 225 refers to a current game, p:PY > 225 means the team passed for more than 225 yards in its previous game.

"AD and p:PY" yields 4 teams for today (2022-10-09) - DET, SEA, HOU and CIN.  There is a 50.7% chance that those Away Dog teams that passed for 225+ yards in their previous games will take a bite out of the favorites.

You are very welcome.  I try to view these forums as an opportunity 

"AD and PY > 225" shows that Away Dogs that happen to pass for 225+ yards in a game will cover 56.2% of those games.  No games are listed for today because nobody knows what (if any) Away Dogs will in fact pass for 225+ yards today.  I certainly hope Home Dog CLV will; no bet, it's just my favorite team.

Send a PM to Indigo999 if you'd like help with averages; I am not adept at those.

Typo--- S/B --- I try to view these forums as an opportunity for cooperation and education.  Some asshxles like to snipe and criticize; they seem to be angry all the time.  They contribute nothing positive and they should all be banned.

@Jimmy_Cats

 right you are thx for heads up

o:RY<= 70 and o:PY<=230 and season>=2012

Again, this shows results for present games, not averages.  Of course teams facing opponents that do not compile many yards in the present matchup will cover the spread more than 80% of the time.  Naturally it does not produce any query results for today's games.

op:RY<= 70 and op:PY<=230 and season>=2012

This produces query results for two teams today:  SF and LAR.  Their opponents (CAR and DAL) are coming off unproductive games.  However, this query only covers at a 48.8% rate which won't make money even if you fade.